Thursday, 15 December 2016

EMs to underperform in near-term; positive on India

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The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Fed chair Janet Yellen sounded hawkish while guiding for three rate cuts in coming year. Geoffery Denis, Head of Global Emerging Markets strategy at UBS, is expecting two hikes next year and not three. US economy strengthening in 2017 will have a negative impact on emerging markets (EMs), said Mixo Das of Nomura. However, in the near-term, EMs are likely to underperform the developed markets. 

Nomura continues to be overweight on India among the Asian markets and does not expect much downside from hereon. Citi Private Bank, too, believes that near-term risks are significant for EMs. The Indian market is looking attractive at current levels and could give 5-10 percent returns over the next one year, Ken Peng, Asia Pacific strategist at the bank said. UBS does not expect a stellar 2017, but believes that EMs can hold up well against developed markets.

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