Thursday 28 February 2019

Asia's Iran crude oil imports dips to two-month low in January; to rebound in February


Asia's crude oil imports from Iran dipped in January to the lowest in two months after top buyers China and India slowed down purchases and as Japan recorded zero imports for a third month, government and trade data showed.

Asia's top four buyers of Iranian crude - China, India, Japan and South Korea - imported a total 710,699 barrels per day of crude from Iran in January, 49 percent lower than the same month in 2018, the data collated by Thomson Reuters showed.

US sanctions on Iran that took effect last November have severely reduced its exports to Asia even though Washington gave waivers to eight countries allowing them to import lower volumes of Iranian oil for six months.

Buyers had to overcome shipping and payment issues which delayed the resumption of Iranian oil imports in Japan and South Korea. Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

In January, Japan lifted its first Iranian oil cargo since the sanctions and the shipment is expected to arrive in February.

South Korea resumed imports of Iranian oil in January after a four-month hiatus, but its shipments were down 75 percent from the same month last year, data from the Korea National Oil Corp showed.

The third-largest buyer of Iranian oil in Asia has restricted its purchases to only condensate, an ultra light oil used in producing naphtha for petrochemical production.

Imports by Japan and South Korea are set to pick up in the months up to May as buyers maximize the volume of oil they can lift during the waiver, trade sources said.

February imports into Asia are expected to nearly double to 1.38 million bpd, Refinitiv data showed.

Iran's biggest customer China imported 377,038 bpd in January, down from more than 500,000 bpd in December. Still China's January imports remained above the 360,000 bpd that Beijing can import under the waiver.

India also scaled back imports in January to 270,500 bpd, below the 300,000 bpd that Iran's second largest client is allowed to import.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Cardamom Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx cardamom short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx cardamom short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in cardamom. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in cardamom is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today Aluminium Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in aluminium. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in aluminium is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today Lead Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in lead. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in lead is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today Copper Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx copper short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx copper short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in copper. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in copper is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today MCX Natural Gas Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx natural gas short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx natural gas short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in natural gas. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in natural gas is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today Nickel Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx nickel short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx nickel short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in nickel. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in nickel is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Today Zinc Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx zinc short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx zinc short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in zinc. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in zinc is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Today Silver Analysis Update Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx silver short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx silver short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in silver. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in silver is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Gold are expected to trade lower today: Angel Commodities


On Wednesday, Spot gold prices declined 0.66 percent to close at $1319.8 per tonne. Dollar rose in yesterday’s trading session over fresh concerns of the US-China trade war which pushed the Gold prices lower. Yesterday, President Donald Trump's chief trade negotiator, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that even if the trade spat between US and China ends US will continue to maintain the threat of tariffs on Chinese goods in the coming years. On the MCX, Gold prices declined by 0.24 percent to close at Rs.33286.0 per 10 gms.

Outlook

Increasing trade tension between US-China might push the Dollar high and in turn weigh on gold. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade lower today; international markets are trading marginally lower by 0.06 percent at $1320.55 per ounce.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Gold near two-week lows as dollar rebounds over trade caution


Gold prices on Thursday held near two-week lows touched in the previous session, as the dollar recouped losses after cautious comments from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer dented investors' hopes for a closure to the tariff war with China.

As of 0340 GMT, spot gold and the U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,318.50 and $1,320.10 per ounce respectively.

The safe-haven metal slipped to its lowest since Feb. 15 at $1,316.43 in the previous session and dropped for the first time in five months.

Lighthizer told a Congressional hearing it is too early to predict the outcome of ongoing trade talks with Beijing and the United States will need to maintain the threat of tariffs on Chinese goods for years even if the two sides strike a deal.

"There is some uncertainty about the trade deal and some of the safe-haven (demand) has gone to the U.S. dollar. That has taken a bit of a bid from gold," said John Sharma, economist, National Australian Bank.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, bounced back from three-week lows.

"Overall, gold is expected to go up with some corrections and prices will move around the $1,310-$1,330 levels depending on the dollar," Sharma said, adding, "main support comes from Federal Reserve's dovish stance and a lot of central banks are keen on accumulating gold."

The U.S. Central Bank will stop shrinking its $4 trillion balance sheet later this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, ending a process that investors say works at cross-purposes with the Fed's current pause on interest-rate hikes.

During his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Powell reiterated that the Fed will be patient in hiking interest rates.

"The precious metal's recent consolidation is supported by the indecision the financial markets have in pricing in what will be the Fed's next move," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

"Gold may struggle climbing higher until we see further deterioration in U.S. data, that would seal the market expectation for the next move to be a rate cut."

Investors are also monitoring the tensions between India and Pakistan, with the two countries engaged in retaliatory attacks, analysts said.

Meanwhile, spot palladium further backed away from its all-time peak of 1,565.09 per ounce, scaled earlier in the week, and was down 0.1 percent at $1,527.50 on Thursday.

The autocatalyst surged 21 percent so far this year on widening supply tightness in the market.

Spot silver dipped 0.1 percent to $15.72 per ounce, while platinum was down 0.4 percent at $861.50, off its more than three-month highs of $871.94 hit in the previous session.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil slips on record US crude output, China's weakening economy


Oil prices dipped on Thursday, dragged down by China's weakening economy and record U.S. crude output, although markets remained relatively well supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC.

International Brent crude futures were at $66.23 per barrel at 0129 GMT, down 16 cents, or 0.2 percent from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $56.90 per barrel, down 4 cents from their last settlement.

Prices were dragged down by surging American crude oil production, which has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) over the last year, to an unprecedented 12.1 million bpd.

Traders said China's weakening economy also weighed on oil prices.

Factory activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, shrank for the third straight month in February. China's official manufacturing gauge fell to a three-year low, highlighting deepening cracks in an economy facing persistently weak demand at home and abroad.

Still, oil markets remain relatively well supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which together with some non-affiliated producers like Russia, known as 'OPEC+', agreed late last year to reduce output by 1.2 million bpd to prop up prices.

Because of these cuts, U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels in the week to Feb. 22 to 445.87 million barrels.

"Crude imports into the U.S. fell 1.6 million bpd last week, to a two-decade low," ANZ bank said on Thursday.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Pakistan suspends Samjhauta Express amid tensions with India


Pakistan has suspended cross-border services of Samjhauta Express amid rising tensions with India, according to a report by Geo News.

The train connecting Lahore in Pakistan and Atari and Delhi in India was scheduled to depart on February 28 at 8 am.

Additional General Manager Pakistan Railways said the decision to suspend the train service was taken to avert any untoward incident in light of heightened security concerns, as per the report.

This comes a day after Railway Minister Piyush Goyal announced that India has no plans to suspend the service. "We have not yet received any instructions from authorities so far as running of Samjhauta Express is concerned. It will run as planned as per the schedule," he said.

Tensions between the two countries have been rising following the Pulwama terror attack in which 40 CRFP jawans were killed. Terrorist outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) had claimed responsibility for the attack, following which India retaliated with an airstrike on its training camp in Balakot on February 26.

Later developments include an aerial confrontation between India and Pakistan in which one Pakistani F-16 jet and an IAF MiG-21 Bison were shot down. The Pakistan Army said it has arrested an Indian pilot which it identified as Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

Even though video footage of the pilot 'being treated well' has been making rounds on social media, India has been trying to put pressure on Pakistan to safely release Varthaman.

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Source: Moneycontrol

30 stocks fall 60-90% from their record highs. Do you own any?


Stocks of 30 companies from the BSE universe fell 60-92 percent from their all-time highs as on February 22, 2019. Out of 399 stocks that have m-cap of more than Rs 1,000 crore in the BSE universe, 397 were trading below their respective all-time highs.

Companies with market cap higher than Rs 1,000 crore and whose stocks touched record highs since start of 2018 were considered for this story.

Top 30 stocks fell 60-92 percent from their all-time highs and the rest 180 plunged 30-60 percent from their record highs.

The list of 30 stocks include Vakrangee, PC Jeweller, Arvind, DHFL, Bhansali Engineering, LT Foods, Indiabulls Integrated, Tejas Networks and Dilip Buildcon.

In 2019 so far, benchmark indices have not been able to give positive returns to the investors. And some stocks are down many-folds.

Even the year 2018 proved to be lacklustre in terms of returns from the stock market.

"For the first time in the last 4 years, the mid and the smallcaps are readily available below their historical average P/E ratios of 18.52x and 16.53x, respectively. Lot of midcaps corrected sharply on the back of technical factors like higher margins, selling of promoter stake increase in promoter pledges that impacted the price performances of these stocks etc," Mayuresh Joshi, Fund Manager at Angel Broking told Moneycontrol.

Vineeta Sharma, Head of Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors said for the past few quarters, largecap stocks are reporting numbers better than mid and smallcaps.

Also, results of such companies have been very volatile owing to volatility in commodity prices, trade tensions and GST implementation, she added.

Analyzing around 2,000 companies, Q3FY19 results suggest that high cap companies' sales and margins have been outperforming mid-cap peers, she said.

The median sales of high cap companies grew by 16 percent and net profit grew by 10.2 percent while for mid and small cap companies, sales grew by 12.5 percent YoY while net profit grew by 6.3 percent.

After sharp correction in these stocks, what investors should do?

Siddharth Sedani, Vice President - Equity Advisory, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers

Cooling valuations has skewed the risk-reward gauges in favour of some stocks. Of the 500-odd stocks with a market cap of Rs 1,000-8,000 crore, as many as 230 stocks have tanked more than 30 percent since the turn of the year. Sixty stocks have lost more than 50 percent of their value.

The global nature of the equity-market correction is corroborated by the fact that most domestic fundamentals in India are robust. The correction may have opened up opportunities but investors should be mindful of their asset allocation.

If you find that your portfolio is light in this segment, then use the correction as an opportunity to shore up your presence in small-cap funds. While this segment is prone to high volatility, sharp corrections provide an ideal opportunity to invest as then the risk-return profile is more in your favour.

We expect the market to re-calibrate and assume a clear direction only on the outcome of the forth-coming general election becoming clear. In the meanwhile, the broad market is likely to be in a consolidation mode, though with heightened volatility.

Vineeta Sharma, Head of Research at Narnolia Financial Advisors

We expect the volatility in earnings to continue for 2019, though companies, where return on equity exceeds the cost of capital with lesser leverage in books, may be chosen for bottom-up research for investing purposes.

Sameer Kalra, Founder & President (Research), Target Investing

It is right time to identify the investable mid cap & small cap stocks which can be filtered on certain criteria such as debt free or only debt for capacity expansion, high cashflow companies, technology, moat and pricing power.

These are basic criteria which have no relation with stock prices which is mostly down in these companies cause of selling by HNIs and MFs which returns in positive environment which makes a 3x-5x return in bull markets.

Till elections mid cap & small caps will underperform Nifty50 as the incremental flows will be allocated to large caps and to some portion will be allocated to rest stocks.

But post elections there would be reversal as the outcome will get adjusted to the expectations and quarterly results will be on low base of December 2018 and onwards.

A K Prabhakar, Head -Research, IDBI Capital

There are many stocks which are very attractive in value terms and we are recommending our clients to buy on staggered manner as we expect good returns in next 18-24 months.

To name a few Mahindra Holidays, Bharat Electronics, Sun TV Network, Gujarat Alkalies, GSFC, Cyient, BSE Limited, Tata Elxsi, Gujarat Gas, ICICI Prudential, Federal Bank, JK Paper, MM Forgings.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Market Live: Nifty opens around 10,850, Sensex gains 150 pts; Jet Airways falls 5%


Crude Update: Oil prices dipped on Thursday, dragged down by China's weakening economy and record U.S. crude output, although markets remained relatively well supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC.

Market Opens: It is a strong start for the indices on Thursday with Nifty trading around 10,850 level.

At 09:18 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 139.66 points at 36045.09, while Nifty is up 40.90 points at 10847.60. About 525 shares have advanced, 138 shares declined, and 33 shares are unchanged. 

Tata Metaliks, Future Retail, Yes Bank, Tata Motors, Coal India, Adani Ports, Quick Heal, Motherson Sumi, Balrampur Chini, Maruti Suzuki are among major gainers on the indices, while losers are ONGC, Wipro, Indiabulls Housing, Jet Airways, Odisha Cement, TCS and HCL Tech.

All the sectoral indices are trading in green led by PSU bank, auto, energy and FMCG.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee opened lower at 71.26 per dollar on Thursday versus Wednesday's close 71.22.

Market at pre-open: Benchmark indices are trading higher in the pre-opening session.

At 09:05 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 123.29 points or 0.34% at 36028.72, and the Nifty up 14.30 points or 0.13% at 10821.00.

Jet Airways fell 10 percent in the pre-opening session, while IGL, Tata Comm, DCB Bank, IndusInd Bank, Grasim , Page Industries and Zee Ent are some of the gainers.

Asian markets trade lower: Asian stocks slipped on Thursday after cautious comments from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer dented some of the recent optimism towards Sino-US trade relations, while the dollar held gains, supported by higher bond yields.

US markets end lower: The S&P 500 closed down slightly on Wednesday but well above its session low after testimonies to US Congress from trade and central bank officials as well as President Donald Trump's former lawyer brought few major surprises.

SGX Nifty: Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat start for the benchmark index in India, a gain of 16 points or 0.15 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,819.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Wednesday 27 February 2019

Crude steel output in India at 9.18 million tonne in January: Report


India's crude steel output fell about two percent to 9.180 million tonne (MT) during January 2019, according to World Steel Association (worldsteel).

The country had produced 9.354 MT during the same month in 2018, according to worldsteel's latest report.

Global crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the association was 146.70 MT in January 2019, up one percent compared to the year ago month, it said.

Last month, China's crude steel production stood at 75.013 MT, higher by 4.3 percent as against 71.887 MT output in January 2018.

China is the world's largest steel producing country.

While India produced 9.2 MT of crude steel in January 2019, Japan and South Korea produced 8.1 MT and 6.2 MT, respectively.

The production of the US was at 7.6 MT, a rise of 11 percent over January 2018.

Italy produced 2 MT, France 1.2 MT, Spain 1.2 MT, Ukraine 1.9 MT, Brazil 2.9 MT and Turkey 2.6 MT.

The members of worldsteel represent approximately 85 percent of the world's steel production, including over 160 steel producers with 9 of the 10 largest steel companies, national and regional steel industry associations, and steel research institutes.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Lead Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in lead. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in lead is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Crude Oil are expected to trade higher today: Angel Commodities


On Tuesday, WTI Crude prices ended flat. Despite of Trumps demand to ease its efforts to boost crude prices, OPEC and its allies will continue with the supply-cut agreement. As per reports, the producer group is likely to continue with their production cuts to balance the market until the inventory level going down from their current level to their five-year average.

Outlook

Crude prices might trade higher as OPEC and its allies will continue the supply cuts even after pressure from US President Trump. On the MCX, oil prices are expected to trade higher today, international markets are trading higher by 0.90 percent at $56.0 per barrel.

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Source: Moneycontrol