Continued concern regarding escalating trade war and recession fears with US bond yields falling at 20 month low negatively impacted metal prices. Additionally, Chinese manufacturing data came lower than expected. Copper and Nickel closed down 2 percent while Lead and Zinc lost 1 percent during the last week.
Energy complex too extended their downtrend with Nymex Crude losing 5 percent after losing 6 percent the previous week and Nymex natural gas closed lower by 1.8 percent after the release of higher stockpiles. On the other hand, gold prices traded positive with 1.2 percent gains while Comex Silver prices remained unchanged during the last week.
US 10Y bond yields are consistently trading below US 3M bond yields indicating persistent recession fears globally and pushing investors towards dollar and bonds. Historically, this has usually triggered downtrend in risky assets and investors shifting towards safety have instruments like gold and silver.
Upcoming economic data in the US and the FOMC policy to be released next month would be keenly watched to get a confirmatory signal from policymakers.
Traders are seen buying precious metal during the current uncertain time. The divergence between gold and silver is confirmed by the gold/silver ratio which is trading at 89 and is at a multi-year high, implying that silver is undervalued relative to gold. Past history suggests near term reversal in Gold/Silver ratio from such high levels.
One can follow a buy on dips strategy in MCX Silver prices as prices can bottom out and an upside rally can be witnessed towards Rs 37800-Rs 39000 per kg. Currently, MCX Silver prices are trading at Rs 36200 per kg.
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