Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts

Wednesday, 10 April 2019

Oil rises amid OPEC supply cuts, US sanctions


Oil prices edged back towards five-month highs on Wednesday, supported by ongoing supply cuts by producer club OPEC and US sanctions against oil exporters Iran and Venezuela.

International benchmark Brent futures were at $70.83 per barrel at 0056 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $64.26 per barrel, up 28 cents, or 0.3 percent, above their last settlement.

Both benchmarks hit five-month highs on Tuesday, before easing on global growth worries and concerns about a rise in Russian supplies.

Oil markets have been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers, a group known as OPEC+.

As a result, Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by around 40 percent and 30 percent respectively since the start of the year.

"The global oil market is clearly moving back towards balance thanks to OPEC+ production cuts. OPEC production has fallen 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) from October levels," ING bank said in a note.

The Dutch bank said the reduction was not only down to voluntary supply cuts, which the group started this year to prop up prices.

"Venezuelan oil output is estimated to have fallen from 1.19 million bpd in October to 890,000 bpd in March, while output from Iran has fallen from 3.33 million bpd to 2.71 million bpd due to sanctions. Declines from these two exempt countries account for almost 47 percent of the reduction seen from OPEC," ING said.

Despite the OPEC-led cuts, not all regions are in tight supply.

Oil production in the United States has risen by more than 2 million barrels per day since early 2018, to a record 12.2 million bpd.

"WTI has not seen the same strength (as Brent)... given the relatively more bearish fundamentals in the U.S. market," said ING bank.

"U.S. crude oil inventories remain stubbornly high," it added.

U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.1 million barrels in the week to April 5, to 455.8 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tuesday, 9 April 2019

Crude oil futures up 0.27% on firm domestic demand


Crude oil futures rose 0.27 percent to Rs 4,493 per barrel Tuesday after participants widened their bets tracking a firm trend in the domestic market.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for April contracts was trading higher by Rs 12, or 0.27 percent, to Rs 4,493 per barrel in a business turnover of 26,433 lots.

The crude oil for May contracts also edged up by Rs 9, or 0.2 percent, to Rs 4,502 per barrel in a business volume of 29 lots.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose 0.11 percent to USD 64.47 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark dipped 0.07 percent to USD 71.05 per barrel.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil slips from 5-month highs as economic worries counter tight market


Oil prices eased on Tuesday, slipping away from 5-month highs reached earlier in the session as a sluggish economic outlook countered an otherwise tight market.

International benchmark Brent futures touched their strongest level since last November at $71.34 per barrel on Tuesday, before losing ground to $70.96 per barrel by 0158 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures also hit a November 2018 high, at $64.77 per barrel, before easing to $64.36, 4 cents below their last settlement.

Despite generally bullish oil markets, concerns that an economic slowdown this year will hit fuel consumption have been preventing crude prices from rising even higher, traders said.

And while fears of a global recession ebbed following strong U.S. jobs figures and improved Chinese manufacturing data late last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said there was still a "significant slowing in growth globally" in 2019.

The bank said it expects Brent and WTI to average $70 per barrel and $59 per barrel respectively in 2019, and $65 per barrel and $60 per barrel in 2020.

Despite the economic concerns, global oil markets are tight, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures have risen by 40 percent and 30 percent respectively since the start of the year.

"Renewed fighting in Libya ... has seen Brent crude break above $70 per barrel," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Libya is a significant supplier of oil to Europe, producing around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in March.

A warplane attacked Tripoli's only functioning airport on Monday as eastern forces advancing on the Libyan capital disregarded international appeals for a truce in the latest of a cycle of warfare since Muammar Gaddafi's fall in 2011.

Hansen said the fighting in Libya added to an already tense market, which has been tightened this year by U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela as well as supply cuts led by the producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

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Source: Moneycontrol

Monday, 8 April 2019

Crude oil futures up 1.19% on firm demand


Crude oil futures rose 1.19 percent to Rs 4,414 per barrel on April 8 after participants widened their bets, tracking a firm trend overseas.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in April was trading higher by Rs 52, or 1.19 percent, at Rs 4,414 per barrel with a business turnover of 24,198 lots.

The crude for delivery in May also edged higher by Rs 49, or 1.12 percent, to Rs 4,434 per barrel with a business volume of 29 lots.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.40 percent to $63.33 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.37 percent to $70.60 per barrel.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil at 5-month highs amid OPEC-led supply cuts, US sanctions


Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2018 on April 8, driven up by OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and strong US jobs data.

International benchmark Brent futures were at $70.72 per barrel at 0225 GMT on April 8, up 38 cents, or 0.5 percent from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were up 37 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $63.45 per barrel.

Brent and WTI both hit their highest levels since November last year at $70.76 and $63.48 per barrel, respectively, early on April 8.

"Brent prices increased more than 30 percent year-to-date as OPEC+ continued to cut supply for 4 months in a row and optimism over US-China trade talks helped to buoy the demand outlook," US bank J P Morgan said in a note released over the weekend.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-affiliated allies like Russia, known as OPEC+, have pledged to withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply this year to prop up prices.

Energy consultancy FGE said OPEC-led supply cuts meant "excess inventories are disappearing and the market looks healthy," adding that "the market is poised for prices to rise to $75 per barrel or higher" for Brent.

Traders said strong US jobs data from April 5 also helped lift Asian markets early on April 8.

Oil prices have further been driven up by US sanctions against OPEC-members Iran and Venezuela.

"Sanctions can cut 500,000 bpd of Venezuelan exports. Add that to a cut in Iran waivers and prices can rise substantially," FGE said.

There remain, however, some factors that could bring prices down later this year.

Russia is a reluctant participant in its agreement with OPEC to withhold output, and Russian oil production may increase again if a deal with the producer club is not extended once it expires before July 1, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on April 5.

Russian oil output reached a record high of 556 million tonnes, or 11.16 million barrels per day (bpd), last year.

In the United States, crude oil production reached a record 12.2 million bpd in late March.

US crude exports have also risen, breaking through 3 million bpd for the first time earlier this year.

"With the new Permian pipelines (from July), we can see a boost of 500,000 to 600,000 bpd in US exports," FGE said.

There also still remain concerns about the health of the global economy, especially should China and the United States fail to resolve their trade dispute soon.

"Global (trade) demand has weakened, and existing tariffs on Chinese goods shipments to the US are providing an additional drag," credit rating agency Moody's said on April 8, although it added that Chinese monetary stimulus measures would likely support growth over 2019.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Friday, 5 April 2019

Outlook for crude oil bullish, but demand concerns persist: Anand Rathi


Crude oil prices have been rising in the last couple of days since OPEC is committed to re-balancing the crude oil market. A recent update shows that OPEC's March crude oil production fell to its lowest since February 2015. Saudi Arabia has cut more than it had pledged under the output-cut deal. Venezuela's crude oil output continued to decline due to US sanctions and a major blackout.

The US plans more sanctions against Iran, which could be announced in coming days. In November last year, the US had permitted eight countries to continue buying crude from Iran. Waivers of such extensions, however, may not be granted now as the US' goal is to bring Iranian oil exports to zero.

On the other hand, base metals slid this week as a sharp decline in the Euro zone and Germany's manufacturing PMI data reiterate concerns about a global economic-growth slowdown. The IMF chief warned that the global economy is in delicate equilibrium and has been losing momentum since the start of the year.

However, base metals recovered later as China's manufacturing PMI showed improvement. This eased concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Sentiment has improved after the White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, expressed optimism about a trade deal between the US and China. Copper rose on concerns about supply disruption after an indigenous community in Peru refused to negotiate with the government.

The outlook for crude oil is bullish. OPEC is fully committed to rebalancing the market. It has hinted that the production cut would be extended till end-2019. Russia, the world?s second-largest producer of crude oil, is on track to reach its pledged output cut of 228,000 b/d by end-April.

So far, it has made good progress. US president Donald Trump continued to ask for greater production by OPEC to curb prices. However, it seems unlikely that OPEC would comply. The Baker Hughes rig count is sharply declining. For the week ending 29th March, it fell to 1,006, from a multi-month high of 1,083. There is much optimism regarding the trade deal between the US and China.

The US continued to maintain a hard stance on Iran. It plans to impose additional sanctions on that country. The tense situation in Venezuela persists. Nevertheless, concerns about global economic growth may contain gains in crude-oil prices.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices dip amid economic concerns, but on track for weekly gain


Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent slipping away from the $70 mark reached the previous day, pulled down by worries about progress in the U.S.-China trade talks.

International benchmark Brent futures dropped 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $69.25 a barrel by 0455 GMT, having touched $70.03 in the previous session, the highest since Nov. 12.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 1 cent at $62.09. The contract fell 36 cents in the previous session, having hit $62.99 on Wednesday, its highest since Nov 7.

Weighing on prices are concerns that an economic slowdown could dent fuel consumption, traders said.

The United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers, could be close to a deal to end their trade dispute though some hurdles remain.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said the two sides were "very close to making a deal," though the United States remains hesitant to lift $250 billion in tariffs that China is seeking to have removed.

Prices for thermal coal and natural gas, the main power generation fuels, have already fallen sharply amid a marked slowdown in consumption.

Still, Brent is heading for a second week of gains, while WTI is on track for a fifth consecutive weekly rise.

Brent has gained nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has risen nearly 40 percent, underpinned by production cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and producer allies such as Russia, together known as OPEC+, agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to prop up prices.

Consultancy Rystad Energy said ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts would support oil prices towards the second half of this year and into 2020.

"We retain our bullish stance for the second half of 2019 and first half of 2020 as we anticipate OPEC+ to extend production cuts through 2019, while we also expect bullish oil market effects due to the introduction of IMO 2020 regulations on sulfur content in marine fuels," said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will mandate all shippers use fuel with a reduced sulphur content, resulting in a sharp increase in diesel consumption and the use of low-sulphur fuel oil.

Somewhat undermining the OPEC-led efforts to prop up the market is surging U.S. oil production, which according to official data rose to a record 12.2 million bpd last week.

As a result, U.S. crude oil stockpiles soared last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices fall, Brent drops away from $70


"A summit in April is looking unlikely despite the comments from both sides on how well the negotiations are going," Alfonso Esparza, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note.

"After much talk there is still nothing to show for it, which is once again putting downward pressure on energy demand going forward," Esparza said.

Brent has gained nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has risen nearly 40 percent, underpinned by U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude, OPEC production cuts and rising global demand.

But bearish economic indicators this week, including lower German factory orders, may be putting a cap on those gains.

German industrial orders fell in February by the sharpest rate in more than two years, according to data released Thursday.

Orders were hit by a slump in foreign demand, compounding worries that Europe's largest economy had a weak start to the year.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Thursday, 4 April 2019

Oil prices edge lower after US inventories build


Oil prices dipped on Thursday, with Brent edging away from the psychologically important $70 level after easing in the previous session on data showing a surprise build in U.S. inventories.

Brent futures eased 2 cents to $69.29 by 0100 GMT. On Wednesday, Brent dipped 6 cents, after touching $69.96, the highest since Nov. 12, when it last traded above $70.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $62.34 a barrel. The contract fell 12 cents in the previous session after briefly hitting $62.99, also the highest since November.

Crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 7.2 million barrels last week, as net imports climbed, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had forecast a decrease of 425,000 barrels.


The increase "encouraged a wave of profit taking as traders are opting to take some chips off the table ahead of the psychologically significant $70 per barrel for prompt Brent," Stephen Innes, head of trading and market strategy at SPI Asset Management, said in a note.

The $70 level "could prove to be the real litmus test for this current rally," he added.

Brent, the global benchmark, is up nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has gained nearly 40 percent, with prices underpinned by tightening global supply and signs of demand picking up.

U.S. crude production climbed 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 12.2 million bpd, after hovering around 12-12.1 million bpd since mid-February, according to the data from the Energy Information Administration.

Refined fuel inventories fell more than expected, with gasoline drawing down for a seventh straight week, as refining rates remained low, the data from the statistical arm of the Department of Energy showed.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices mixed, Brent edges up towards $70 level


Oil prices were mixed on Thursday, with Brent edging higher towards the psychologically important $70 level after easing in the previous session on data showing a surprise build in U.S. inventories.

Brent futures were up 5 cents at $69.36 a barrel by 0224 GMT. On Wednesday, Brent dipped 6 cents, after touching $69.96, the highest since Nov. 12, when it last traded above $70.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3 cents to $62.43 a barrel. The contract dropped 12 cents in the previous session after briefly hitting $62.99, also the highest since November.

Global benchmark Brent has risen nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has gained nearly 40 percent, with prices underpinned by tightening global supply and signs of demand picking up.

"There is a clear bias to the upside with the supply restrictions," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, pointing to supply cuts by OPEC and others along with sanctions on Iran.

"And there's a much better than expected demand picture after the recent China and U.S. PMI numbers, along with a potential kicker from any U.S.-China trade agreement," he said.

The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 54.4, the highest since January 2018 and up from February's 51.1, a fourth-month low, a private business survey of China's service sector showed on Wednesday.

Trade talks between the United States and China made "good headway" last week in Beijing and the two sides aim to bridge differences during further talks, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Wednesday.

Crude oil is also supported by an agreement between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, to reduce oil output by about 1.2 million bpd this year.

U.S. pressure on Iran is increasing, with a senior Trump administration official saying earlier this week that Washington is considering more sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.

Still, crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 7.2 million barrels last week, as net imports climbed, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had forecast a decrease of 425,000 barrels.

U.S. crude production climbed 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 12.2 million bpd, after hovering around 12-12.1 million bpd since mid-February, according to the data from the Energy Information Administration.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices edge lower after US inventories build


Oil prices dipped on Thursday, with Brent edging away from the psychologically important $70 level after easing in the previous session on data showing a surprise build in U.S. inventories.

Brent futures eased 2 cents to $69.29 by 0100 GMT. On Wednesday, Brent dipped 6 cents, after touching $69.96, the highest since Nov. 12, when it last traded above $70.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $62.34 a barrel. The contract fell 12 cents in the previous session after briefly hitting $62.99, also the highest since November.

Crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 7.2 million barrels last week, as net imports climbed, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had forecast a decrease of 425,000 barrels.

The increase "encouraged a wave of profit taking as traders are opting to take some chips off the table ahead of the psychologically significant $70 per barrel for prompt Brent," Stephen Innes, head of trading and market strategy at SPI Asset Management, said in a note.

The $70 level "could prove to be the real litmus test for this current rally," he added.

Brent, the global benchmark, is up nearly 30 percent this year, while WTI has gained nearly 40 percent, with prices underpinned by tightening global supply and signs of demand picking up.

U.S. crude production climbed 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 12.2 million bpd, after hovering around 12-12.1 million bpd since mid-February, according to the data from the Energy Information Administration.

Refined fuel inventories fell more than expected, with gasoline drawing down for a seventh straight week, as refining rates remained low, the data from the statistical arm of the Department of Energy showed.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Wednesday, 3 April 2019

Brent approaches $70 as oil prices rise for fourth day


Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Wednesday, with support from OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions overshadowing an industry report showing an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories last week.

Brent futures rose 35 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.72 a barrel by 0207 GMT, after earlier reaching $69.87, the highest since Nov. 12 and within touching distance of $70.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $62.80 cents a barrel, earlier rising to $62.90, the highest since Nov. 7.

"The production cuts by OPEC plus are providing a nice backdrop here for higher prices and until we see U.S. production reassert itself, the easier move is higher for oil," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries hit a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found earlier this week.

Oil production from Russia, which has joined OPEC in agreeing to supply cuts to prop up prices, fell to 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, but missed the country's target under the deal.

Three of eight countries granted waivers by Washington to import oil from Iran have cut the imports to zero, a U.S. official said on Tuesday, adding that improved global oil market conditions would help reduce Iranian crude exports further.

Vice President Mike Pence said on Tuesday the United States would continue to pressure Venezuela's oil industry and those who support it with economic sanctions, citing world oil prices as low enough to allow for the measures.

Venezuela's state-run energy company, PDVSA, kept oil exports near 1 million barrels per day in March despite U.S. sanctions and power outages that crippled its main export terminal, according to PDVSA documents and Refinitiv Eikon data, Reuters reported later in the day.

U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories drew, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday.

Official numbers from the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) are due out later on Wednesday.

"As long as we don't see a major build with the DoE crude oil inventories, we could see a clean move higher," Moya said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil rises for fourth day, shrugs off inventory build



Oil prices rose for a fourth day on Wednesday, holding firm despite an industry report showing that U.S. inventories rose unexpectedly last week, with supply cuts and sanctions supporting the market.

Brent futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $69.59 a barrel by 0028 GMT, after earlier reaching $69.68, the highest since Nov. 13. The global benchmark closed half a percent higher on Tuesday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 6 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $62.64 cents a barrel. On Tuesday, the contract rose 1.61 percent, to settle at $62.58 a barrel, after touching $62.75, its highest level since Nov. 7.

"With output falling for a fourth month thanks to continued OPEC production cuts and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, oil prices are well supported," Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at Cityindex said in a note.

"On the demand side, easing economic slowdown fears are also offering support," she said.

Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries hit a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found earlier this week.

Three of eight countries granted waivers by Washington to import oil from Iran have cut the imports to zero, a U.S. official said on Tuesday, adding that improved global oil market conditions would help reduce Iranian crude exports further.

"In November, we granted eight oil waivers to avoid a spike in the price of oil. I can confirm today three of those importers are now at zero," Brian Hook, the special U.S. envoy for Iran, told reporters, without identifying the countries.

Vice President Mike Pence said on Tuesday the United States would continue to pressure Venezuela's oil industry and those who support it with economic sanctions, citing world oil prices as low enough to allow for the measures.

Venezuela's state-run energy company, PDVSA, kept oil exports near 1 million barrels per day in March despite U.S. sanctions and power outages that crippled its main export terminal, according to PDVSA documents and Refinitiv Eikon data, Reuters reported later in the day.

U.S. crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories drew, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tuesday, 2 April 2019

Oil rises to five-month high on firmer China data, prospect of fresh supply curbs


Oil prices climbed to nearly five-month highs on Tuesday, supported by firm Chinese economic data that eased demand concerns, the possibility of more sanctions against Iran and further Venezuelan supply disruptions.

Brent crude rose 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $69.16 a barrel by 0636 GMT, having earlier touched $69.50, the highest since mid-November.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $61.73 a barrel, after earlier rising above $62 for the first time since early November.

Positive data from the world's biggest economies, the United States and China bolstered prices, with China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly returning to growth for the first time in four months during March, figures showed on Monday.

"China's PMI number was the most significant monthly increase since 2012, which should ease concerns around a potential threat to oil demand," said Stephen Innes, head of trading and market strategy at SPI Asset Management.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) expanded at the strongest pace in eight months in March, the figures showed.

"PMI is such a driver of commodity prices I do think the markets will swing to the demand side of the equation as that element is so underpriced," Innes said.

Most stock markets in Asia also gained as the stronger manufacturing numbers boosted confidence among investors.

On the oil supply side, the U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before, a senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday.

The official also suggested that the U.S. may not extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil exports to a group of eight importers that expire next month.

"That, I think, is where we're headed," the official said.

Venezuela's Jose crude export terminal has halted operations due to a lack of electricity supply, two sources with knowledge of the situation said, after restarting on Friday following a prolonged blackout.

Production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) helped push the group's supply to a four-year low in March, a Reuters survey found.

The world's biggest exporter, Saudi Arabia, over-delivered on the group's supply-cutting pact while Venezuelan output fell further due to U.S. sanctions and earlier power outages.

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Source: Moneycontrol