NCDEX Jun Soybean plunge about 1.78% on Monday on profit booking by the market participants to close at 3,632 rupees per 100 kg. In the 3rd advance estimates, government increased production forecast of soybean to 137.43 lt (Vs 109.33 last year). There are chances of higher planting this season as farmers got good return last year. Moreover, IMD confirm normal rains in its in its second stage forecast recently. Lower demand for crushing also pressure due to expectation of improving edible oil imports. As per latest SOPA press release, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Apr period pegged at 81 lt, up by 21.8% on year. Until April, country crushed about 62 lt of soybean compared to 55.5 lt last year. USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year. Lower crude soybean oil stocks at port may support soybean but lowering of tariff on edible oils and lower soyoil in international market pressurize soybean. As per SEA, soymeal exports are revised higher to 13.58 lt, up 14.3% in 2018/19. SEA revised March 2018 exports figures to 2.15 lt which is highest single month exports in last 26 months.
Outlook
Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to lower in coming days due to lower physical demand by the oil mills. Moreover, higher production and increase edible oil imports will put extra pressure on Oilseeds at higher levels.
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