Showing posts with label market outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market outlook. Show all posts

Saturday, 25 May 2019

How to use Aroon Indicator for mastering market timing


Aroon indicator is developed by Tushar Chande in 1995. Aroon is an indicator system that determines whether a stock is trending or not and how strong the trend is. 'Aroon' means Dawn's Early Light in Sanskrit, Tushar chose this name as the indicators are designed to reveal the beginning of a new trend.

Aroon indicator is similar to other momentum oscillators in terms of being used to time the market entry into a trend. It becomes most effective when confirming signals or conditions identified by additional technical analysis.


Construction of Aroon Indicator

Understanding the underlying formula used for the construction of Aroon helps traders to take a prudent decision while trading complex scenarios. The Aroon indicators fluctuate between 0 and 100. Aroon-Up is based on price highs, while Aroon-Down is based on price lows. The default parameter is considered as 25. Aroon indicator is calculated using the following formula:


In simple language, the indicator consists of the "Aroon up" line, which measures the strength of the uptrend, and the "Aroon down" line, which measures the strength of the downtrend.

Working of Aroon

—Like the most momentum oscillators, the Aroon appears on a chart in a separate window below the price chart. The Aroon is plotted against a middle line of 50 that differentiates strength of the trend.
—Aroon-Up and Aroon-Down are complementary indicators that measure the elapsed time between new 25-day highs and lows, respectively.
—They are shown together so chartists can easily identify the stronger of the two and determine the trend bias.

—The Aroon Up and the Aroon Down lines fluctuate between zero and 100, with values close to 100 indicating a strong trend and values near zero indicating a weak trend.
—The lower the Aroon Up, the weaker the uptrend and the stronger the downtrend, and vice versa.


—The main assumption underlying this indicator is that a stock's price will close regularly at new highs during an uptrend, and regularly make new lows in a downtrend.
—The indicator focuses on the last 25 periods but is scaled to zero and 100. Therefore, an Aroon Up reading above 50 means the price made a new high within the last 12.5 periods. A reading near 100 means a high was seen very recently.
—The same concepts apply to the Down Aroon. When it is above 50, a low was witnessed within the 12.5 periods. A Down reading near 100 means a low was seen very recently.

Trading Technique:

Usage of Trend lines and Moving Average is the most effective way while trading with Aroon Indicator. Moving Average and Aroon together are used to develop a trading strategy. Key points about it are discussed below-


Buy Signal:-

Entry
—Aroon-up is greater than Aroon-down
—Aroon-up is greater than 50
—Buy signal is generated after a close above 20 DMA as indicated

Exit
—One can use multiple ways to book profit & exit, like Aroon-Up again near 100 or price trend line breakdown or a close below 20 SMA.

Sell Signal:-

Entry
—Aroon-Down is greater than Aroon-Up
—Aroon-Down is greater than 50
—Sell signal is generated after a close below 20 DMA as indicated

Exit
—One can use multiple ways to book profit & exit, like Aroon-Down again near 100 or price trend line breakdown or a close above 20 SMA.

Consolidation and Aroon

When both indicators are below 50 or both are moving lower with parallel lines, it can signal that the price is consolidating. New highs or lows are not being created. Traders can watch for breakouts as well as the next Aroon crossover to signal which direction price is going.

For 25-day Aroon, readings below 50 mean a 25-day high or low has not been recorded in 13 or more days. Prices are clearly flat when not recording new highs or new lows. Similarly, consolidation is usually forming when both Aroon-Up and Aroon-Down move lower in a parallel fashion and the distance between the two lines is quite small. This narrow parallel decline indicates that some sort of trading range is forming. The first Aroon indicator to break above 50 and hit 100 will trigger the next signal.


The interesting aspect of using the Aroon indicator in day trading is that you can also use it during range-bound markets. When the price of a security consolidates within a range, the Aroon Up and Aroon Down lines will stay parallel to each other.

Conclusion

—Chartists can use the Aroon indicators to determine if a security is trending or trading and then use other indicators or technique to generate appropriate signals.
—Aroon indicators are quite different from typical momentum oscillators, which focus on price relative to time.
—A surge in Aroon-Up combined with a decline in Aroon-Down signals the emergence of an uptrend.
—A surge in Aroon-Down combined with a decline in Aroon-Up signals the start of a downtrend.
—A consolidation is present when both move lower in parallel fashion or when both remain at low levels (below 50).

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Monday, 18 March 2019

'Expect huge short covering in next 10 days, buy every decline'


After a long time, we have seen fireworks in the Indian market. During the last week, Sensex rallied 1,353 points, Nifty rallied 391 points and Bank nifty rallied 1,620 points.

Foreign investors are back in action and have invested Rs 13,564.57 crore during February and Rs 19,131.07 crore in March so far. Last time foreign investors bought shares worth above Rs 10,000 crore in a month was in March 2017. After two years we are seeing this kind of money flow from foreign investors.

The financial year 2019 is about to finish and there are huge shorts in the market. So in the next 10 days, we are expecting huge short covering and NAV rally in the market, so one should use every decline for buying.

For next week, Nifty has strong support at 11,365-11,255 and resistance at 11,525-11,650 range.

Our past recommendations like ITD Cementation, Bajaj Electricals, PNC Infra, PSP Projects, Motherson Sumi, Godfrey Phillips, PI Industries, AIA Engineering, AstraZeneca Pharma, Bajaj Auto, Divis Lab, Axis Bank, etc have given fantastic returns in less than two months.

Here are three more picks for mid to long term:

Future Retail:

Future Retail serves customers in more than 409 cities across the country through over 15.9 million square feet of retail space. Its hypermarket and supermarket business is led by Big Bazaar, fbb, Food Bazaar, Easyday, Foodhall and Hypercity. The company operates more than 1,444 stores in over 409 cities across the country. During Q3, the company added 108 new stores.

The company has posted stable numbers for 9MFY19. During 9MFY19, its net profit increased 9.5 percent to Rs 529.65 crore from Rs 483.68 crore YoY on 7 percent higher sales of Rs 14,768.30 crore. During 9MFY19, its EBITDA grew 18 percent to Rs 760.57 crore. During Q3FY19, Big Bazaar has reported store sales growth of 10.1 percent.

The stock has given a technical positive break out on daily and weekly charts. We recommend buying in a staggered manner for medium to long term.

Super Crop Safe:

The agro-chemical sector is looking highly promising for long-term investment. UPL and PI Industries are already trading at an all-time high price. Now it’s time to grab quality small-cap agro-chemical stock that can give multi-fold returns in a longer run.

Super Crop Safe is R&D driven agro-chemical with focus on niche products. The company has successfully developed and commercialised high margin bio-products through its R&D. Such products are Super Gold, triNETRA and Artica that are getting quite a strong response from the market.

The company is aiming to launch 3-4 high margin, high demand products from its R&D every year, which will further strengthen its margin. The company is planning to make debut in nutraceutical segment for which they have already acquired HACCP, FSSAI, and GMP certifications. The company has completed one product “Spirulina” on nutraceutical front and rest of the products are in the R&D pipeline.


Its PAT has grown at 77 percent CAGR over the last four years and EBITDA has grown at 41 percent CAGR in the same period. For Q3FY19, its PAT soared 27 percent to Rs 1.45crore.

Last week promoters bought shares from open market. AT CMP, the stock is trading at PE of just 18x on its (TTM) EPS. We believe this stock can become multi-bagger in the long run. We recommend buying for long term investment prospective.

L&T Finance:

LTFH is a financial holding company offering a focused range of financial products and services across rural, housing and wholesale finance sectors, as well as mutual fund products and wealth management services, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries.

It has reported excellent results for Q3FY19. Its income has improved 27.55 percent YoY to Rs 3,243.99 crore while PAT increased 80.78 percent to Rs 579.93 crore as against Rs 320.8 crore. The overall loan book of the company is up 23 percent YoY to Rs 93,708 crore in Q2FY19.

The company has shown 64 percent growth in rural finance, 34 percent growth in housing finance and 5 percent growth in wholesale finance. Its AUM in MF business increased 15 percent to Rs 69,080 crore in Q3FY19. During 9MFY19, its PAT grew 72.59 percent to Rs 1,678.72 crore on 29 percent higher income of Rs 9,438.25 crore. It’s Gross Stage 3 declined to 6.74 percent in Q3FY19 from 10.4 percent in Q3FY18.

At CMP, the stock is trading at P/E of just 14x. We recommend buying in a staggered manner for medium to long term.

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Source: Moneycontrol