Oil poised for biggest monthly drop in six months on trade wars

Oil fell on May 31 and held on track for its biggest monthly drop in six months as comments from US President Donald Trump ramped up trade tensions, weighing on the demand outlook.

Brent futures are heading for a 10 percent slide in May and WTI for a 13 percent drop, their biggest monthly losses since last November.

Front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $65.72 at 0844 GMT, down $1.15 from last session's close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $55.85 per barrel, down 74 cents from their last settlement.

Both grades earlier hit their lowest since March 8.

US President Donald Trump vowed on Thursday to slap tariffs on all goods from Mexico unless it stops illegal immigration, firing up fears over economic growth and appetite for oil.

"The decision, understandably, is sending shivers down investors‘ spines," PVM said in a note. "The mood is now definitely risk-off, and this is putting oil under pressure for the time being."

"US refiners import roughly 680,000 barrels per day of Mexican crude. The 5% tariff adds an extra $2 million to the cost of their daily purchases."

The Mexico trade dispute adds to a trade war between the United States and China, which many analysts expect to trigger a recession..

China's factory activity shrank more than expected in May, an official survey showed on May 31.

US OUTPUT BACK TO RECORD

Crude prices have also been under pressure from a return in US oil production to a record 12.3 million barrels per day, and a much smaller than expected decline in US stockpiles.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stocks fell by around 300,000 barrels last week, to 476.49 million barrels.

That was much less than the 900,000-barrel decline analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, and well below the 5.3 million-barrel drawdown seen by the API industry body.

Giving a floor to prices, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia's increased output in May was not enough to compensate for lower Iranian exports, which collapsed after the United States tightened the screws on Tehran, a Reuters survey found.

Washington will sanction any country that buys oil from Iran after the expiration of waivers on May 2, US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said on Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal had reported earlier on Thursday that countries like China and India that were issued waivers in November to buy Iranian oil could continue the purchases after May 2 until they reached a negotiated cap.

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Gold prices are expected to trade higher today: Angel Commodities

On Thursday, Spot Gold prices ended higher by 0.73 percent to close at $1288.5 per ounce whereas Gold on the MCX ended higher by 0.24 percent to close at Rs.31809.0 per 10gms. The safe haven appeal for the bullion metal boosted considering the ongoing trade tension between US & China increased.

Gold prices were further supported after expectation of rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve which weighed on the Dollar. After witnessing steady growth on the first quarter, the US economy slowdown over escalating trade tension with China.

Even the manufacturing, retail sales and exports dipped in April 2019. Markets expect that FED will consider the weak domestic demand and inflation in their next meet and might go ahead with the rate cut.

Outlook

Boost in the appeal for the U.S. Dollar over rising global uncertainties coupled with expectation of a rate cut by FED might continue to support Gold prices. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade higher today; international markets are trading lower by 0.27 percent at $1290.6 per ounce.

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Glenmark Pharma wilts 3% on muted Q4 show, CLSA downgrades to sell

Glenmark Pharma shares fell 3 percent intraday on May 31 as global brokerage house CLSA downgraded the stock after March quarter earnings missed analyst estimates.

The stock was quoting at Rs 544.40, down Rs 10.95, or 1.97 percent on the BSE at 11:01 hours. The scrip has wilted 15 percent in the last one month.

CLSA downgraded Glenmark rating to sell from buy and slashed price target by 32 percent to Rs 500 from Rs 740 after cutting FY20-21 EPS estimates by 22-27 percent.

The brokerage said the fourth quarter numbers were below estimates due to a miss on US revenue and Higher R&D/SG&A spends.

"We expect the investment phase to remain high over the next two years. High investment phase will keep earnings outlook subdued and benefits of current investments will only reflect FY22 onwards," it added.

The drug maker's Q4 profit grew by 6.6 percent to Rs 161.6 crore and revenue increased by 12.4 percent to Rs 2,564 crore YoY. Operating profit jumped 11.4 percent year-on-year to Rs 364.13 crore and margin contracted 14 bps to 14.2 percent in quarter ended March 2019.

Numbers were far below analyst estimates. CNBC-TV18 estimated profit at Rs 227.5 crore, revenue at Rs 2,622.8 crore and EBITDA at Rs 450 crore with margin at 17.2 percent for the quarter.

Elara Capital, which has reduced the rating on the stock, said FY19 operating performance remained weak, given lack of meaningful US sales. Despite corporate actions initiated to reduce debt, net debt remains high at 2.2x net debt-EBITDA.

The brokerage house cut its FY20 EPS estimates by 6 percent and FY21 by 4 percent, as a result, it slashed price target to Rs 585 from Rs 605.

Visibility on unlocking value of its innovative R&D pipeline and stake sale in its API business will be key triggers, Elara said.

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Coal India surges 2% on strong Q4 earnings; brokerages raise price target

Coal India shares rallied 4 percent intraday on May 31 as global brokerages remained bullish on the stock after the fourth quarter earnings beat analyst expectations.

The stock was quoting at Rs 258.30, up Rs 5.40, or 2.14 percent on the BSE at 10:04 hours. The scrip has rallied 13 percent in the last three months.

The country's largest coal mining company beat on earnings front due to its strong realisations.

Fuel supply agreement realisations came in at Rs 1,460 per tonne against CNBC-TV18 poll expectations of sub Rs 1,390 per tonne, as FSA sales are 87 percent of total sales volumes. E-auction realisations were also good at Rs 2,754 per tonne against expectations of sub Rs 2,700 per tonne.

Profit in March quarter grew by a whopping 363 percent year-on-year to Rs 6,027 crore; revenue increased by 7.5 percent to Rs 28,546 crore.

At operating level, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation surged 4,122 percent to Rs 8,211.9 crore and margin expanded sharply to 28.77 percent against 0.73 percent in the corresponding period of last fiscal.

Numbers were ahead of analyst estimates as CNBC-TV18 poll estimated profit at Rs 5,175 crore on revenue of Rs 27,250 crore and EBITDA at Rs 7,350 crore with margin at 27 percent for the quarter.

Global brokerages remained bullish on the stock and raised price target after solid earnings growth reported by the state-owned company.

Here is what the brokerages said after Coal India's Q4 earnings:

Brokerage: CLSA | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 290 | Return: 15%

We maintain buy rating on the stock and raised price target to Rs 290 from Rs 275 earlier as the stock is at a reasonable 10x FY20 PE with an attractive 8 percent dividend yield.

Coal India is a defensive play amidst global headwinds in the resources sector.

The fourth quarter EBITDA was higher than the estimates, led by better-than-expected realisations.

We see a flattish EPS over FY19-21.

Brokerage: Citi | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 320 | Return: 26%

We have a buy call on the stock and increased price target to Rs 320 from Rs 300 as the company offers an attractive dividend yield.

We value the company at a premium given resource base & limited exposure to global volatility.

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Gold falls as dollar, bonds emerge as preferred safe haven bets

Gold prices eased to a one-week low on May 30 as investors opted for dollars and US government bonds as a hedge against trade tensions between the United States and China.

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,276.72 per ounce by 0954 GMT, after falling to its lowest level since May 23 at $1,274.44. US gold futures edged 0.4% lower to $1,281.40 an ounce.

"A strong US dollar is weighing on the gold prices. The dollar has been strong lately; it seems like investors prefer to hold US debts and other low risk serving bonds as opposed to gold," SP Angel analyst Sergey Raevskiy said.

"However, gold is still very supported around these prices. You would expect gold to be higher in this environment, but for now, it looks like the investors' focus is elsewhere."

The dollar index climbed to a one-week peak and was hovering within striking distance of a two-year high of 98.371 hit a week ago, as Sino-US trade tensions prompted investors to seek a safe haven in the greenback and government bonds. The dollar has been used as the preferred hedge from the trade tensions, repeating a trend seen last year and making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The dollar is also benefitting from increased demand for bonds since the currency is needed to buy bonds, eroding bullion's appeal.

Ramping up the rhetoric against the United States, a senior Chinese diplomat on Thursday said deliberately provoking trade disputes is "naked economic terrorism, economic chauvinism, economic bullying."

China's Communist Party newspaper had warned that Beijing was ready to use rare earths to strike back at the United States.

The latest exchanges between Beijing and Washington signalled the heightened risk of a prolonged trade war and have tempered investors' enthusiasm towards riskier assets.

"With bond yields so low and weakening equity markets, gold could find support. As (long) as the price remains above $1,265-$1,270, gold will rally back to $1,306 and $1,316 levels," said Nicholas Frappell, global general manager at ABC Bullion.

Meanwhile, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.5% to 740.86 tonnes on Wednesday.

Despite Wednesday's rise, SPDR gold holdings have fallen more than 6% so far this year.

Among other precious metals, silver was steady at $14.42 per ounce. The metal had dropped to $14.25 on Tuesday, its lowest level since early December.

Platinum eased 0.1% to $791.07 per ounce, after earlier falling to its lowest since Feb. 15 at $785.50. Palladium slipped 0.5% to $1,343.40 per ounce.

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Brent falls on trade war worries, tight oil market supports

Oil prices fell on May 30 on fears of a global economic slowdown due to a US-China trade war but losses were capped by a tightening crude market and rising political tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $68.86 per barrel at 1044 GMT, down 59 cents, or 0.9%, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 12 cents, or 0.2%, at $58.93 a barrel, supported by expectations of a fall in US crude inventories.

"An escalating US-China trade war represents a risk to oil markets," Bernstein Energy said in a note on Thursday.

A senior Chinese diplomat ramped up the rhetoric against the United States on Thursday by comparing actions from Washington to "naked economic terrorism"

Bernstein said that under "a full-blown trade war scenario" global oil demand would grow by 0.7 percent this year versus 2018, only half of current estimates.

Because of weakening demand, Bernstein said any upside for oil markets was capped despite relatively tight supply.

Oil prices have been supported in recent months by output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers as well as falling supplies from Iran.

Iranian May crude exports dropped to less than half of April levels at around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) after the United States tightened sanctions on Tehran's main source of income. Iran needs to export at least 1.5-2.0 million bpd of crude to balance its books.

"We see an abundance of escalation risks in large part because the US sanctions are subjecting Iran to almost unprecedented economic pain," said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets.

Arab leaders gather in Saudi Arabia on Thursday for emergency summits that Riyadh hopes will deliver a strong message to Iran that regional powers will defend their interests against any threat following attacks on Gulf oil assets this month.

Many analysts also expect the OPEC-led supply cuts to be extended until the end of 2019 as the group wants to prevent oil prices falling back to levels seen in late 2018 when Brent slumped to $50 per barrel.

Since OPEC and its allies started withholding supply in January, oil prices have risen by about 30 percent.

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Agro commodities to be volatile ahead of the monsoon

As we are doorsteps of June, all eyes are on the progress of the annual southwest monsoon. Agro commodities have already started responding to news and developments regarding the monsoon.

Contradictory views from The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the private weather agency, Skymet, are constantly being aired. While the IMD is expected to stick to its 'normal' monsoon forecast and will soon be releasing its region-wise expected rainfall distribution, Skymet has already put out its below-normal-rain forecast, citing El Nino conditions.

In a recent development, the UN World Meteorological Organisation said that there is a 60-65 percent chance of El Nino weather conditions emerging between June and August, but a strong El Nino looks unlikely and conditions may ease in September-November.

Most models, however, suggest a delay in the onset of the monsoon in India this year and below-normal rains in June. Accordingly, prices of agro commodities may rise in the near term, particularly those of kharif crops, including cotton, soybean, guar seed, turmeric and maize.

Except soybean, the output of all other commodities was affected by drought last year. Once the southwest monsoon sets in and starts advancing, sowing activity may start, thus capping a further rise in the prices of these commodities. Even if the monsoon sets in with a bang, other factors such as its uninterrupted advance and region-wise rainfall distribution are crucial for sowing. Meanwhile, the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by the government will determine sowing preferences.

Preliminary expectations reveal an increase in the area under soybean cultivation in 2019-20, particularly in Maharashtra. The cotton crop yield has been lower in this state for the last two years due to the 2018-19 drought and the 2017-18 bollworm attack. Farmers may thus shift to the largest grown kharif oilseed in coming season.

At the same time, however, market participants expect a reasonable hike in the MSP of cotton for a second consecutive year. This should attract farmers, particularly in Rajasthan, to opt for cotton at the cost of guar, which failed to offer reasonable returns despite a curtailed output in 2018-19.

In the situation where the monsoon's advance is interrupted and much delayed, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan, farmers generally prefer castor seed and guar, which can be sown in August as well.

Turmeric is a long-duration crop: sowing in June and harvesting in January-February. Farmers growing turmeric normally opt for this spice only; thus, the area under turmeric cultivation is more or less steady except for exceptional years of huge water shortages.

Many factors would have an impact on the sowing of kharif crops. Thus, we expect prices of agro-commodities, particularly those of kharif commodities to be volatile in coming months.

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Top buy and sell ideas by Sudarshan Sukhani, Rajat Bose, Prakash Gaba for short term

The market reversed all its previous day gains and ended F&O expiry session at record closing high on May 30, driven by index heavyweights HDFC Twins and Reliance Industries ahead of Modi 2.0 government formation and Q4 GDP data due later in the day.

The BSE Sensex rallied 329.92 points to 39,831.97 while the Nifty 50 climbed 84.80 points to 11,945.90, forming a bullish candle on daily charts. The index gained 2.6 percent in May series.

The broader markets also participated in the rally. The Nifty Midcap index gained 0.8 percent and Smallcap index rose 0.4 percent.

According to the Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 11,880.7, followed by 11,815.5. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 11,989.8 and 12,033.7.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 31,537.10, up 241.55 points on May 30. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 31,309.07, followed by 31,081.03. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 31,692.17, followed by 31,847.23.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, top market experts recommend which stocks to bet on for good returns:

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com

Buy UltraTech Cement with stop loss at Rs 4730 and target of Rs 4810

Buy Manappuram Finance with stop loss at Rs 135.5 and target of Rs 138.5

Sell CG Power with stop loss at Rs 37.2 and target of Rs 35.5

Buy ICICI Bank with stop loss at Rs 423 and target of Rs 434

Buy DCB Bank with stop loss at Rs 232 and target of Rs 239

Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com

Buy Bharat Electronics with stop loss below Rs 111.25 for target of Rs 117.75

Buy DLF with stop loss  below Rs 191.75 for target of Rs 199

Buy Siemens with stop loss below Rs 1285 for target of Rs 1330

Prakash Gaba of prakashgaba.com

Buy Bajaj Finance with target at Rs 3600 and stop loss at Rs 3430

Buy Indraprastha Gas with target at Rs 350 and stop loss at Rs 331

Sell Godfrey Philips with target at Rs 900 and stop loss at Rs 975

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Market Headstart: Nifty likely to open higher; TCS remains top buy from IT space

The Nifty50 is likely to open the first day of June series on a positive note on Friday even as most of the Asian markets were trading mixed.

Asian markets were trading mostly lower as investors feared U.S. President Donald Trump’s shock move to slap tariffs on Mexico risked tipping the United States, and maybe the whole world, into recession, said a Reuters note.

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to positive opening for the broader index in India, gains of 22 points or 0.19 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around 11,998-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

The rupee May 30 fell marginally by 4 paise to close at 69.87 against the US currency, extending its decline for a third straight day, due to a stronger dollar and investors awaiting the allocation of key portfolios in the newly elected government.

On the institutional front, FPIs were net buyers in Indian markets for Rs 1664 crore while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1122 crore, provisional data showed.

Stocks in news:

Mining major Coal India Ltd May 30 reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 6024.23 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2019, a jump of 362 per cent over Rs 1302.63 crore, the post-tax profit of the corresponding period last year.

Hospitality major EIH, which runs hotels and resorts under Oberoi and Trident brands, May 30 reported a 77.25 per cent decline in standalone net profit to Rs 12.77 crore for the quarter ended March 2019 due to an exceptional item.

GMR Infrastructure suffered a loss of Rs 2,341.25 crore on a consolidated basis in the March 2019 quarter, owing to impairment losses of some of the power assets, the airport-to-energy conglomerate said in a filing with bourses Thursday.

Technical Recommendations:

We spoke to IIFL and here’s what they have to recommend:

TCS: Buy| Target: Rs 2253| Stop Loss: Rs 2093| Upside 5%

Bajaj Finserv: Buy| Target: Rs 8638| Stop Loss: Rs 8026| Upside 5%

HDFC Life: Buy| Target: Rs 461| Stop Loss: Rs 422| Upside 6%

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Rupee opens higher at 69.76 per dollar

The Indian rupee gained in the early trade on Friday. It has opened higher by 11 paise at 69.76 per dollar versus Thursday's close 69.87.

On May 30 the rupee continued its slide on the third consecutive day as it was close marginally lower at 69.87 on the back of strong dollar.

Rupee is expected to open higher against the dollar on the back of Brent crude’s decline to a near-three-month low. Meanwhile, Trump announcement of tariffs on Mexican imports is expected to keep the rupee’s advance in check, said Motilal Oswal.

Washington threatened to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico. Trump, in an announcement reported that a 5% tariff would be levied on all goods from Mexico with effect from June 1 and tariffs would remain in place till Mexico takes effective action to alleviate the flow of migrants. Moreover, the announcement warned that tariffs would go up to 25% by October if Mexico did not take sufficient action.

Volatility for the currency could remain low ahead of important economic numbers that will be released tomorrow. Broadly, trade war concern is keeping most market participants on the edge. Today, USD-INR pair is expected to quote in the range of 69.75 and 70.20, it added.

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Stocks in the news: ONGC, Coal India, IDBI Bank, Jain Irrigation, Jet Airways

Here are the stocks that are in news today:

Results on May 31: Encore Software, Lakshmi Overseas Industries, MVL, Nakoda, Nitco, Orchid Pharma, United Textiles

ONGC Q4: Profit down 51 percent at Rs 4,044.6 crore versus Rs 8,262.7 crore; revenue down 3.4 percent at Rs 26,758.5 crore versus Rs 27,694 crore (QoQ).

Coal India Q4: Profit at Rs 6,024.2 crore versus Rs 1,302.6 crore, revenue up 7.5 percent at Rs 28,546.3 crore versus Rs 26,547 crore (YoY).

IDBI Bank Q4: Loss at Rs 4,918.4 crore versus loss of Rs 5,662.8 crore; NII up 75.7 percent at Rs 1,609 crore versus Rs 915.7 crore (YoY).

Jain Irrigation Q4: Profit down 39.5 percent at Rs 56.1 crore versus Rs 92.7 crore; revenue down 6 percent at Rs 2,583.1 crore versus Rs 2,747.8 crore (YoY).

KNR Constructions Q4: Profit up 15.6 percent at Rs 92.1 crore versus Rs 79.7 crore; revenue up 14.6 percent at Rs 715.7 crore versus Rs 624.4 crore (YoY).

Jet Airways: Company not in a position to consider & approve audited Q4 financial results due to ongoing bidding process.

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Market Live: Nifty starts June series near 12k, Sensex gains 100 points; Coal India up 3%

Market Opens: It is firm start for the June series as Indian indices opened on higher note with Nifty above 12,000 level.

At 09:17 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 149.96 points or 0.38% at 39981.93, and the Nifty up 60.40 points or 0.51% at 12006.30. About 530 shares have advanced, 311 shares declined, and 46 shares are unchanged. 

Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, JSW Steel, Coal India, HPCL, Berger Paints, IndiGo and Tata Steel are some of the major gainers on the indices in the early trade, while losers are ONGC, HUL, Kotak Mahindra Bank and 

All the sectoral indices are trading higher led by metal, pharma, bank, IT, auto, FMCG, pharma and infra.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee gained in the early trade on Friday. It has opened higher by 11 paise at 69.76 per dollar versus Thursday's close 69.87.

Market at pre-open: Benchmark indices are trading higher in the pre-opening session with Nifty test 12,000 level.

At 09:01 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 128.01 points or 0.32% at 39959.98, and the Nifty up 55.70 points or 0.47% at 12001.60.

Brokerages View: Source: CNBC-TV18

Citi on Coal India

Buy rating, target raised to Rs 320 from Rs 300 per share

Valuations at 9x 1-yr forward PE discount uncertainty on volume trends

CLSA on Coal India

Maintain buy rating, target raised to Rs 290 from Rs 275 per share

Q4 EBITDA higher than estimate, led by better-than-expected realisations

CLSA on Glenmark Pharma

Q4 below estimates due to a miss on US rev & higher R&D/SG&A spends

Expect investment phase to remain high over the next two years 

CLSA on IPCA Labs

Maintain sell call, target raised to Rs 780 from Rs 730 per share

Q4 EBITDA up 50% despite modest 7% revenue growth

CLSA on ONGC

Reiterate buy call, target raised to Rs 285 from Rs 240 per share

Slew of one-offs cause a big miss in Q4

Macquarie on ONGC

Outperform call, target at Rs 210 per share

Q4 EBITDA-EPS significantly below consensus & estimates

Nomura on Alkem Labs

Upgrade to buy from neutral, target raised to Rs 2,230 from Rs 1,965 per share

Q4 below estimates; but commentary suggests improved outlook

Nomura on Ujjivan Financial

Maintain reduce call, target at Rs 315 per share

Asset quality was steady, with GNPAs of 0.92% 

Nomura on KNR Construction

Maintain buy call, target at Rs 305 per share

Results beat both on revenue & EBITDA margin

Macquarie on Jagran Prakashan

Maintain outperform, target cut to Rs 146 from Rs 150 per share

Cut FY20/FY21 EPS estimates by 16%/12

Trump plans 5% tariff on Mexican imports: President Donald Trump, struggling to stem a surge of illegal immigrants across the southern border, vowed on Thursday to impose a tariff on all goods coming from Mexico starting at 5% and ratcheting higher until the flow of border-crossers ceases.

Wall Street ends higher: US stocks showed signs of stabilizing on Thursday, but gains were kept in check by conflicting comments on trade talks from President Donald Trump and Beijing that reinforced concerns about a potentially lengthy battle harming global growth.

Asian markets trades lower: Asian shares extended a month-long slide and sovereign bonds surged on Friday after US President Donald Trump ramped up trade tensions globally by suddenly slapping tariffs on all goods from Mexico, sending the peso tumbling.

SGX Nifty: Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader indices in India, a gains of 22.50 points or 0.19 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,998.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

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Closing Bell: Nifty ends May series near 11,950, Sensex up 329 points; NTPC gains 3%

Market Close: It is strong close for the May F&O series on Thursday with Nifty finished near 11,950 level.

At close, the Sensex was up 329.92 points at 39,831.97, while Nifty was up 84.80 points at 11,945.90.  About 1236 shares have advanced, 1301 shares declined, and 153 shares are unchanged. 

NTPC, Yes Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance and BPCL were among major gainers on the Nifty, while losers were Sun Pharma, M&M, Zee Entertainment, Eicher Motors and JSW Steel.

Among the sectors, auto, pharma and metal ended lower, while buying seen in the infra, IT, PSU bank and energy.

Berger Paints Q4: Profit up 4.9 percent at Rs 111.4 crore, compared to Rs 106.2 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Revenue rises 13.4 percent at Rs 1,472 crore versus Rs 1,298.3 crore in the year-ago period.

Apollo Hospitals Enterprises Q4:

Net profit rose 28.6% at Rs 76.7 crore against Rs 59.6 crore and revenue up 16.3% at Rs 2,167.1 crore against Rs 1,863.4 crore.

EBITDA was up 24.2% at Rs 266 crore against Rs 214 crore, margin was at 12.3% versus 11.5%.

Godfrey Phillips India Q4: Net profit down 17.9% at Rs 35.4 crore against Rs 43.1 crore, revenue up at Rs 605.7 crore against Rs 541.9 crore, YoY.

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Silver futures ease on low demand

Silver prices fell 0.54 percent to Rs 36,091 per kg on Thursday as participants reduced their exposure on low demand at the spot market.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver to be delivered in July contracts was trading lower by Rs 195, or 0.54 percent, to Rs 36,091 per kg in a business turnover of 29,629 lots.

Similarly, the white metal for delivery in September contracts was down by Rs 155, or 0.42 percent, at Rs 36,625 per kg in 3,404 lots.

Analysts attributed the weakness in silver prices at futures trade to cutting down of positions by participants to book profits at current levels.

Meanwhile, silver was trading 0.32 percent higher at USD 14.37 an ounce in New York.

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Gold prices are expected to trade sideways today: Angel Commodities

On Wednesday, Spot Gold prices ended marginally higher by 0.1 percent to close at $1279.2 per ounce whereas Gold on the MCX ended higher by 0.61 percent to close at Rs.31733.0 per 10gms. The safe haven appeal for the bullion metal boosted considering the ongoing trade tension between US & China increased.

However, investors preferred Dollar as a safe haven over Gold which led to a rally in the Dollar Index in turn capping the gains for Gold. Rising concerns of a global economic slowdown with constant escalation of US China trade tension, no proper conclusion of the Brexit and issues in the European economy pushed the Dollar higher. Moreover, even the U.S. Treasury yields is continuously declining over growing global growth worries which pressurized the Dollar index.

Outlook

Boost in the appeal for the U.S. Dollar over rising global uncertainties might continue to weigh on Gold. However lower treasury yields might cap the gains for Dollar. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade sideways today, international markets are trading lower by 0.34 percent at $1276.65 per ounce.

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Soybean futures expected to trade sideways: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Jun Soybean closed higher on Thursday but traded in a range for this week to close at 3,721 rupees per 100 kg. This year soybean area may be higher as prices are higher than MSP of 3399 rupees per 100 kg. We have seen downtrend in prices last week due to lower demand for crushing on expectation of improving edible oil imports. As per latest SOPA press release, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Apr period pegged at 81 lt, up by 21.8% on year. Until April, country crushed about 62 lt of soybean compared to 55.5 lt last year. As SEA, soymeal exports are revised higher to 13.58 lt, up 14.3% in 2018/19. SEA revised March 2018 exports figures to 2.15 lt which is highest single month exports in last 26 months. USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year. Lower crude soybean oil stocks at port may support soybea but lowering of tariff on edible oils and lower soyoil in international market pressurize soybean.

CBOT Soybean closed lower on concerns about trade with China, expectations for boost in plantings as farmers will switch acres intended for corn to soybeans due to weather delays. The Export Sales report released showed 535,848 MT of old crop soybeans sold during the week of May 16. That was a 44.5% jump from last week and well above last year for this time.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways in coming days due to lower physical demand by the oil mills. However, higher production and increase edible oil imports will put extra pressure on Oilseeds at higher levels.

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Oil prices rise on fall in US crude stocks, but trade war worries cap gains

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, although concerns that the U.S.-China trade war will trigger an economic downturn kept a lid on gains.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $69.71 per barrel at 0502 GMT, up 26 cents, or 0.4% from their last close. Brent fell nearly 1% in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 40 cents, or 0.7%, at $59.21 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels in the week to May 24 to 474.4 million barrels, data from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, showed on Wednesday.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Thursday at 1500 GMT.

Outside the United States, oil prices remain supported by output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers as well as falling supplies from Iran.

Iranian May crude exports fell to less than half of April levels at around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), tanker data showed and two industry sources said, after the United States tightened sanctions on Tehran's main source of income.

Many analysts expect the supply cuts to be extended in a meeting next month as OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia wants to prevent oil prices falling back to levels seen in late 2018 when Brent slumped to $50 per barrel.

Since OPEC and its allies started withholding supply in January, oil prices have risen by about 30 percent.

DEMAND SLOWDOWN

Preventing prices from rising further are concerns that the trade dispute between the United States and China will trigger a global economic downturn and a slowdown in fuel consumption.

"An escalating U.S.-China trade war represents a risk to oil markets," Bernstein Energy said on Thursday in a note.

"The IEA has lowered their demand estimate for 2019 to 100.4 million barrels per day (1.3% year-on-year) and we see the possibility of further negative demand revisions ahead," Bernstein said. "Under a full-blown trade war scenario, demand growth could be cut in half to 0.7% y-o-y."

Because of weakening demand, Bernstein said "any upside is capped" in oil markets despite relatively tight supply.

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