Budget 2019: नए बदलाव के पहले जानिए मौजूदा टैक्स स्लैब

फाइनेंस मिनिस्ट्री ने एक सर्कुलर जारी करके ये संकेत दिए थे कि वह अंतरिम बजट में दिए गए आवंटन को पूर्ण बजट में भी बरकरार रखेगी। लोकसभा चुनावों से पहले 1 फरवरी को अंतरिम बजट पेश किया गया था। मुमकिन है कि फाइनेंस मिनिस्ट्री टैक्स के मामले में किए अपने फैसले को भी पूर्ण बजट में जारी रखे। इस बार पूर्ण बजट 5 जुलाई को आने वाला है। बजट से पहले आप मौजूदा टैक्स स्लैब समझ लीजिए।

नरेंद्र मोदी सरकार के पहले कार्यकाल में 2014 में कर छूट की सीमा 50,000 रुपए बढ़ा दी गई थी। इसी के साथ कर छूट सीमा 2 लाख रुपए से बढ़कर 2.5 लाख रुपए हो गई। इस बार नरेंद्र मोदी सरकार के दूसरे कार्यकाल का पहला बजट पेश हो रहा है। ऐसे में मुमकिन है कि सरकार इस बार कर छूट की सीमा बढ़ा सकती है।

इस साल अंतरिम बजट में फाइनेंस मिनिस्टर ने करदाताओं को 12,500 रुपए के कर छूट का फायदा दिया। यह छूट इनकम टैक्स की धारा 87A के तहत मिलेगी। यह 1 अप्रैल 2019 से लागू हुआ है। इस छूट के तहत जिनकी सालाना टैक्सेबल इनकम 5 लाख रुपए से कम है, उन्हें 12,500 रुपए का छूट मिलेगा।

इसके अलावा अंतरिम बजट में सरकार ने स्टैंडर्ड डिडक्शन 10,000 रुपए बढ़ाकर 40,000 रुपए से 50,000 रुपए कर दिया। पूर्ण बजट से पहले एकबार इनकम टैक्स के मौजूदा स्लैब के बारे में जान लीजिए। उम्र के हिसाब से इसे तीन हिस्सों में बांटा गया है।

पहला 60 साल की उम्र तक। 

दूसरा 60 साल से 80 साल तक।

तीसरा 80 साल से ज्यादा उम्र।

60 साल की कम उम्र वाले करदाताओं के लिए

2.5 लाख रुपए तक कोई टैक्स नहीं। 

2.5 लाख रुपए से लेकर 5 लाख रुपए तक -कुल टैक्सेबल इनकम में से 2.5 लाख रुपए घटाकर बाकी रकम पर 5 फीसदी टैक्स और 4 फीसदी सेस। (इसमें 87 A के तहत 12500 रुपए की छूट मिलेगी)

500001 रुपए से लेकर 10 लाख रुपए तक- पहले 2.50 लाख रुपए से लेकर 5 लाख रुपए तक 5 फीसदी के हिसाब से 12500 रुपए का टैक्स+बाकी की रकम पर 20 फीसदी टैक्स+4 फीसदी सेस।

1000001 से ज्यादा टैक्सेबल इनकम- पहले 2.50 लाख रुपए से लेकर 5 लाख रुपए तक 5 फीसदी के हिसाब से 12500 रुपए का टैक्स+ 5 लाख से 10 लाख रुपए पर 20 फीसदी टैक्स के हिसाब से 1 लाख रुपए + बाकी इनकमपर 30 फीसदी टैक्स + 4 फीसदी सेस।

60 साल से 80 साल तक के करदाताओं के लिए

3 लाख रुपए तक कोई टैक्स नहीं।

300001 से 5 लाख रुपए तक- कुल टैक्सेबल इनकम में से 3 लाख रुपए घटाकर बाकी रकम पर 5 फीसदी टैक्स और 4 फीसदी सेस। (इसमें 87 A के तहत 12500 रुपए की छूट मिलेगी)।

500001 रुपए से लेकर 10 लाख रुपए तक- कुल टैक्सेबल इनकम में से 3 लाख रुपए घटाकर 2 लाख रुपए पर 5 फीसदी के हिसाब से 10000 रुपए का टैक्स+बाकी की रकम पर 20 फीसदी टैक्स+4 फीसदी सेस।

1000001 से ज्यादा टैक्सेबल इनकम- कुल टैक्सेबल इनकम में से 3 लाख रुपए घटाकर 2 लाख रुपए पर 5 फीसदी के हिसाब से 10000 रुपए का टैक्स+ 5 लाख से 10 लाख रुपए पर 20 फीसदी टैक्स+ बाकी की रकम पर 30 फीसदी टैक्स-4 फीसदी सेस।

80 साल से उम्रदराद करदाताओं के लिए

5 लाख रुपए तक कोई टैक्स नहीं।

5 लाख रुपए से 10 लाख रुपए तक- कर छूट वाले 5 लाख रुपए हटाकर बाकी के 5 लाख रुपए पर 20 फीसदी टैक्स+4 फीसदी सेस।

1000001 से ज्यादा टैक्सेबल इनकम- 

5 लाख रुपए की छूट के बाद बाकी के 5 लाख रुपए पर 20 फीसदी के हिसाब से 1 लाख रुपए टैक्स+बाकी की रकम पर 30 फीसदी टैक्स+4 फीसदी सेस।

NRI के लिए टैक्स

NRI के लिए भी टैक्सेबल इनकम में 2.5 लाख रुपए की छूट है। अगर टैक्सेबल इनकम 50 लाख रुपए से ज्यादा और 1 करोड़ से कम है तो इनकम टैक्स पर 10 फीसदी सरचार्ज और 4 फीसदी सेस लगेगा।

अगर टैक्सेबल इनकम 1 करोड़ से ज्यादा है तो 15 फीसदी सरचार्ज लगेगा।

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RBI changes policy stance to accommodative from neutral

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a third consecutive rate cut in five months in an effort to boost credit growth and revive the sluggish economic activity in the country.

The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), on June 6, voted in favour of an aggressive 25 basis points reduction in the key policy rate. One basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point.

The RBI’s repo rate now stands at 5.75 percent, its lowest since April 2009. The repo rate is the rate at which commercial banks borrow from the RBI.

India’s GDP growth hit a five-year low of 5.8 percent in January-March quarter as the slowdown in all key sectors of agriculture, industry and manufacturing raised concerns on the underlying weakness in the economy.

The retail inflation, gauged by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit a six-month high on the back of rise in food prices. It stood at 2.92 percent in April, which is within the MPC’s mandate. However, a shortfall in monsoons could further push food prices up going forward.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), on June 5, said that the southwest monsoon was likely to get delayed and hit the Kerala coast on June 8, as compared to the normal onset date of June 1. The IMD expects India to receive normal monsoons at 96 percent of the 50-year long-term average (LPA) of 89 cm.

However, private forecaster Skymet has pegged below normal monsoon rains for 2019, with rainfall seen at 93 percent of the LPA.

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सबसे ज्यादा टैक्स चुकाने वालों को मिलेगा पीएम के साथ चाय पीने का मौका

नरेंद्र मोदी सरकार इनकम टैक्स देने वालों को प्रोत्साहित करने के लिए एक नई योजना लेकर आई है। करदाताओं को बढ़ावा देने की इस योजना का आइडिया एकदम नया है।

क्या करेगी सरकार?

सरकार की इस योजना के तहत सबसे ज्यादा टैक्स चुकाने वाले लोगों को फाइनेंस मिनिस्टर या प्राइम मिनिस्टर के साथ चाय पीने का मौका मिलेगा। यूं तो सरकार पहले से ही कई नॉन-मॉनेटरी इंसेंटिव देती रही है लेकिन पीएम के साथ चाय पर चर्चा से करदाता ज्यादा टैक्स देने के लिए प्रोत्साहित होंगे।

मिंट के मुताबिक, इस मामले की जानकारी रखने वाले लोगों ने बताया कि सरकार की इस कोशिश का मकसद इनकम टैक्स कलेक्शन बढ़ाना है। अपने दूसरे कार्यकाल में नरेंद्र मोदी सरकार की योजना टैक्स सिस्टम को ज्यादा प्रोग्रेसिव बनाना है। मुमकिन है कि अपने पहले बजट में ही सरकार इस बारे में कोई ऐलान कर सकती है।

पहले भी ऐसे कई मौके आए हैं जब नरेंद्र मोदी ने टैक्सपेयर्स को कर चुकाने के लिए धन्यवाद दिया है। लेकिन अब साथ में चाय पीने की स्कीम से निश्चित तौर पर सरकार के टैक्स कलेक्शन में इजाफा होगा। अभी तक टैक्स डिपार्टमेंट सबसे ज्यादा टैक्स चुकाने वाले लोगों को एप्रिसिएशन सर्टिफिकेट देता है।

सरकार को टैक्स कलेक्शन बढ़ाने का यह आइडिया ऐसे समय में आया है जब 31 मार्च को खत्म फाइनेंशियल ईयर में डायरेक्ट टैक्स कलेक्शन सरकार के रिवाइज्ड टारगेट से भी कम रहा है। सरकार ने 12 लाख करोड़ रुपए टैक्स कलेक्शन किया था।

सरकार अपने दूसरे कार्यकाल में वेलफेयर स्कीम को बढ़ाना चाहती है जिसके लिए उसे काफी फंड की जरूरत होगी। सरकार अब ज्यादा से ज्यादा किसानों को प्रधानमंत्री किसान सम्मान निधि (PM-KISAN) का फायदा देना चाहती है। इससे सरकारी खर्च बढ़ेगा जिसकी भरपाई टैक्स कलेक्शन से ही हो पाएगी।

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RBI seen cutting rates, may turn "accommodative" after dismal GDP

A worrying slowdown in India's economy makes a cut in the central bank's benchmark interest rate highly likely this week, but analysts say policymakers should also find ways to boost banks' liquidity to ensure they drop their lending rates too.

Beginning a three day review on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of India's six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) can draw comfort from subdued inflation. Running at 2.92 % annually in April, it has stayed below the medium term target of 4% for the past nine months.

Two-thirds of 66 economists polled by Reuters expect the MPC to wrap up on Thursday by cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points, but that survey was taken even before India released far worse than expected economic growth numbers, so expectations for a cut have probably hardened.

If they are right, and the RBI does lower the repo rate to 5.75% it will be the third meeting in a row since February that India has cut interest rates. The last time it moved this quickly to lower rates was in 2013 to revive the moribund economy from growth rates that had slipped to a decade low.

The trouble is banks are laden with bad debt and are scared of losing customers if they cut deposit rates, constraining their ability to cut lending rates despite all the prods from the RBI.

State Bank of India, the country's largest lender by assets, has cut its key lending rate by only 10 basis points in response to the 50 bps cuts by the RBI.

A series of defaults at lender Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Service Ltd last year has raised concerns about the country's shadow banking industry with other lenders also facing trouble accessing capital and rating downgrades.

The RBI had retained its "neutral" stance after the rate cut in April but traders said a change in this stance to "accommodative" will be more comforting for markets than just a rate cut, especially after the recent GDP numbers.

"Liquidity woes in banking system are far from over," said Lakshmi Iyer, Chief Investment Officer (Debt) at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company.

"Given the global as also domestic scenario, the MPC may well choose to gratify the markets with a benchmark rate cut. What is more important for markets is the MPC guidance than the actual rate action."

The economy really does need help.

Data out on Friday showed annual economic growth running at 5.8% in the January-March quarter, sharply down from 6.6% in the previous quarter, well below forecasts and the slowest in more than four years.

"The market is expecting RBI to cut the rates by at least 25 basis points, and we will not be surprised if they decide to cut the rate by even 50 bps, to infuse liquidity and push growth," said Romesh Tiwari, head of research at CapitalAim.

FISCAL, RAIN AND OIL UNCERTAINTIES

Re-elected last month for a second term regardless of the slowdown, Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to stop the rot, and his economic strategists are working on big-bang reforms.

New Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is due to present a budget on July 5 that many analysts expect to be expansionary, though the she cannot afford to let the deficit slip too much.

Until then the RBI will have to live with the uncertainty over the new minister's fiscal plans, while knowing that when the government does boost spending it will go some way to boosting banks' liquidity.

Also, the effect of the drain on banks' liquidity from political parties' demand for cash during the election campaign should begin to fade.

Oil prices and the monsoon rains are less predictable. The central bank had lowered its Jan-March 2020 inflation forecast to 3.8 percent but warned it could be higher if food and fuel prices rise abruptly or if the fiscal deficit overshoots targets.

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Market Headstart: Nifty likely to open lower; 3 stocks which could give 8-13% return

The Nifty50 is likely to open lower on Tuesday ahead of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) outcome on Thursday. Asian markets were trading mixed as deeper concerns about growth have capped broader improvements in risk sentiment.

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 48 points or 0.40 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 12,070-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes declined on Monday and Nasdaq confirmed it was in a correction, dragged down by Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon.com on fears the companies are the targets of U.S. government antitrust regulators, said a Reuters report.

The S&P BSE Sensex rose 553 points to 40,267 while the Nifty50 closed 165 points up at 12088 on Monday to end at fresh record closing high.

The Indian rupee June 3 appreciated by another 44 paise to close at 69.26 to the US dollar in line with an intense rally in domestic equities amid hopes of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

Stocks in news:

L&T Technology Services: Promoter L&T to sell up to 4 million shares of company via offer for sale on June 4 and 5, floor price set at Rs 1,650 per share.

GE Power India: Company received order worth Rs 738 crore.

Wipro: Company has fixed June 21 as the record date for the purpose of determining the entitlement and the names of equity shareholders who are eligible to participate in the buyback.

Technical Recommendations:

We spoke to YES Securities and here’s what they have to recommend:

Voltas Limited: Buy| Target: Rs 665| Stop Loss: Rs 565| Upside 13%

Avenue Supermarts Ltd: Buy| Target: Rs 1450| Stop Loss: Rs 1300| Upside 8%

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd: Buy| Target: Rs 115| Stop Loss: Rs 98| Upside 13%

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Top buy and sell ideas by Sudarshan Sukhani, Rajat Bose, Prakash Gaba for short term

The market reversed all its previous day gains and ended F&O expiry session at record closing high on May 30, driven by index heavyweights HDFC Twins and Reliance Industries ahead of Modi 2.0 government formation and Q4 GDP data due later in the day.

The BSE Sensex rallied 329.92 points to 39,831.97 while the Nifty 50 climbed 84.80 points to 11,945.90, forming a bullish candle on daily charts. The index gained 2.6 percent in May series.

The broader markets also participated in the rally. The Nifty Midcap index gained 0.8 percent and Smallcap index rose 0.4 percent.

According to the Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 11,880.7, followed by 11,815.5. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 11,989.8 and 12,033.7.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 31,537.10, up 241.55 points on May 30. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 31,309.07, followed by 31,081.03. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 31,692.17, followed by 31,847.23.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, top market experts recommend which stocks to bet on for good returns:

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com

Buy UltraTech Cement with stop loss at Rs 4730 and target of Rs 4810

Buy Manappuram Finance with stop loss at Rs 135.5 and target of Rs 138.5

Sell CG Power with stop loss at Rs 37.2 and target of Rs 35.5

Buy ICICI Bank with stop loss at Rs 423 and target of Rs 434

Buy DCB Bank with stop loss at Rs 232 and target of Rs 239

Rajat Bose of rajatkbose.com

Buy Bharat Electronics with stop loss below Rs 111.25 for target of Rs 117.75

Buy DLF with stop loss  below Rs 191.75 for target of Rs 199

Buy Siemens with stop loss below Rs 1285 for target of Rs 1330

Prakash Gaba of prakashgaba.com

Buy Bajaj Finance with target at Rs 3600 and stop loss at Rs 3430

Buy Indraprastha Gas with target at Rs 350 and stop loss at Rs 331

Sell Godfrey Philips with target at Rs 900 and stop loss at Rs 975

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Market Headstart: Nifty likely to open higher; TCS remains top buy from IT space

The Nifty50 is likely to open the first day of June series on a positive note on Friday even as most of the Asian markets were trading mixed.

Asian markets were trading mostly lower as investors feared U.S. President Donald Trump’s shock move to slap tariffs on Mexico risked tipping the United States, and maybe the whole world, into recession, said a Reuters note.

Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to positive opening for the broader index in India, gains of 22 points or 0.19 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around 11,998-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

The rupee May 30 fell marginally by 4 paise to close at 69.87 against the US currency, extending its decline for a third straight day, due to a stronger dollar and investors awaiting the allocation of key portfolios in the newly elected government.

On the institutional front, FPIs were net buyers in Indian markets for Rs 1664 crore while the DIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1122 crore, provisional data showed.

Stocks in news:

Mining major Coal India Ltd May 30 reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 6024.23 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2019, a jump of 362 per cent over Rs 1302.63 crore, the post-tax profit of the corresponding period last year.

Hospitality major EIH, which runs hotels and resorts under Oberoi and Trident brands, May 30 reported a 77.25 per cent decline in standalone net profit to Rs 12.77 crore for the quarter ended March 2019 due to an exceptional item.

GMR Infrastructure suffered a loss of Rs 2,341.25 crore on a consolidated basis in the March 2019 quarter, owing to impairment losses of some of the power assets, the airport-to-energy conglomerate said in a filing with bourses Thursday.

Technical Recommendations:

We spoke to IIFL and here’s what they have to recommend:

TCS: Buy| Target: Rs 2253| Stop Loss: Rs 2093| Upside 5%

Bajaj Finserv: Buy| Target: Rs 8638| Stop Loss: Rs 8026| Upside 5%

HDFC Life: Buy| Target: Rs 461| Stop Loss: Rs 422| Upside 6%

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Market Live: Nifty opens above 11,750, Sensex gains 340 pts; OMCs in focus

Market opens: It is a positive start for the Indian indices on May 24 after Election 2019 results gave clear mandate to the BJP led NDA government.

At 09:16 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 348.76 points at 39,160.15, while Nifty is up 114.40 points at 11771.40. About 464 shares have advanced, 124 shares declined, and 20 shares are unchanged. 

HDFC Bank, IOC, HPCL ,BPCL, Yes Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, L&T, Asian Paints, Axis Bank, RIL, Bajaj Finance are the major gainers on the indices, while losers are ONGC, Bharti Infratel, Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech.

All the sectoral indices are trading in green led by bank, infra, auto, energy, metal and pharma.

Rupee Opens: The Indian rupee opened higher by 26 paise at 69.75 per dollar on Friday versus previous close 70.01.

Market at pre-opening: Indian indices are trading higher in the pre-opening session with Nifty above 11,750 level.

At 09:01 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 64.57 points or 0.17% at 38875.96, and the Nifty up 102.70 points or 0.88% at 11759.70.

Brokerages View on Verdict 2019: Source - CNBC-TV18

HSBC

Near-term growth could inch up as election uncertainties fade

Growth will depend on reforms to augment capital & labour 

Morgan Stanley

Market's focus will shift to growth cycle on which we are constructive

Expect RBI to be more accommodative 

Expect economy to come out of its soft patch of the past few months

CLSA

With a bulk of disruptive reforms now behind, focus will shift to growth

Absolute majority would reduce the need for competitive populism

Credit Suisse

BJP coming power implies greater stability

Remain overweight on banks; like SBI, ICICI & HDFC Bank

Nomura

Outcome is better than expected & promises a stable pro-reform govt

Expect govt to reiterate Its Interim Budget fiscal deficit target of 3.4% of GDP for FY20

Phiillip Capital

Expect augmented focus on infrastructure development & rural India

Expect GDP growth at 7.3%/7.5% for FY20/21

Nifty target for March 2020 is 12,200-12,700

Kotak Institutional Equities

Capital goods, construction, building materials may benefit in coming Days

Corp banks, power equip, housing fin cos & rural-focused cos will benefit

Citi

NDA may inch towards Rajya Sabha majority by November 2020

10-year bond yield may struggle to break below 7.15% without a catalyst

Asian markets trade weak: Asian shares hobbled near four-month lows on Friday and crude oil plunged on worries the US-China trade spat was developing into a more entrenched strategic dispute between the world's two largest economies, pushing investors to safe-haven assets.

US markets end lower: US stocks slumped on Thursday as investors dumped shares of companies in growth and cyclical sectors, with energy and technology leading declines, on fears that the escalating US-China trade war would stymie global economic growth.

SGX Nifty: Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a gain of 58 points or 0.50 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,746.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

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Viewpoint | Come 6 June, will the RBI play or pause?

Going forward, there is an expectation that the policy repo rate would be reduced further, with GDP growth data coming under the scanner and high-frequency indicators pointing to a slowdown.

We are at an interesting juncture in the economy today, in the context of interest rates. Most times, the point of debate remains that stakeholders expect lower interest rates, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) refuses to oblige for the sake of inflation control.

This time both sides - the stakeholders and the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are more or less on the same page. Inflation is under control, GDP growth rate is a question mark and the MPC has reduced rates twice, in February and April, by 25 basis points each time.

Going forward, there is an expectation that the policy repo rate would be reduced further, with GDP growth data coming under the scanner and high-frequency indicators pointing to a slowdown.

The next meeting of the RBI MPC is scheduled for June 06. Going by the historically high real interest rates, and needs of industry and personal loan off-take, there is a case for policy repo rate reduction from 6 percent to 5.75 percent. However, there are various considerations due to which the MPC may pause and postpone the rate cut decision until the next meeting on  August 07.

The bigger issue is the transmission of rate cuts. Against the 50 basis point reduction in repo rate this year, an iota has been passed on by banks to deposit and lending rates.

This aspect of the transmission of rate measures to the real economy was largely ignored earlier but came to the fore during the tenure of former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Thus, to facilitate the transmission, Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rate (MCLR) was one of the measures undertaken. Since then, through the tenures of former RBI head Urjit Patel and current Governor Shaktikanta Das, transmission has been in focus.

For some time now, banking system liquidity has been in deficit. Credit off-take from banks has been growing at a buoyant pace, much faster than the growth rate in bank deposits. Against this backdrop, if banks pass on the entire RBI-induced rate cut, loan offtake would be incentivised and growth in deposits would be dis-incentivised, aggravating the issue of liquidity tightness.

RBI has taken action to tackle the banking system liquidity shortage. In FY18-19, through open market operation (OMO) purchase of Government Securities, the RBI has infused almost Rs 3 lakh crore into the system.

In the current financial year, the RBI has completed two forex swap auctions of $5 billion each, infusing approx Rs 70,000 crore. OMO purchases are continuing as well. In spite of all this, the banking system liquidity tightness continues.

Things may improve gradually as the election process ends and the cash component of the economy reduces. It is expected that reducing cash in the economy, flows into the banking system would improve.

However, at this juncture, if the RBI cuts rates on June 06, are banks in a position to pass it on? If not, would the RBI cut again, taking the rate cut to 75 basis points this year?

From an implementation perspective, there is a case to wait for some time and take action when the conditions are conducive for transmission.

There are a couple of other parameters, on which there would be more clarity in August, rather than June.

The fiscal deficit is one of these variables. Higher deficit promotes inflation and also leads to higher government borrowing from the market. As long as the deficit is controlled or within acceptable limits, the RBI MPC will be comfortable easing rates.

Given that the election result will be out on May 23, and it will take time to form the government, and the Union Budget, which will provide clarity on what to expect on the fiscal deficit front, is expected in July.

Another variable is the monsoon. Marginal deficient monsoons and depleted water reserves are projected this year, it has thus become even more relevant to defer till August to have a complete perspective.

To conclude, the case remains for a further policy rate reduction, but the extent and timing is something on which the MPC would deliberate and decide on. The approach of the MPC towards policy rate remains 'neutral'.

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Rate sensitive stocks gain as RBI expected to cut repo rate by 25 bps

The rate sensitive stocks including auto, bank and realty are in focus ahead of the announcement of rate decision by Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The announcement is scheduled for April 4 at 11.45 am.

It is largely expected that the RBI will cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6 percent in its first policy meet of current financial year and then keep the rates on hold till the middle of next year at least.

"We expect the RBI to change its stance from neutral to accommodative in view of the global and domestic growth weakness," said VK Sharma, Head PCG & Capital Markets Strategy, HDFC Securities.

The Bank Nifty is trading marginally higher led by Bank of Baroda, SBI, Federal Bank, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Meanwhile, Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty index are trading with 0.5 percent gains each.

Among autos, Amara Raja Batteries gained 3 percent followed by Hero Motocorp, TVS Motor, Exide Industries, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki.

Godrej Properties, Brigade Enterprises, DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Prestige Estate are among major realty gainers.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Bank Nifty should settle at 29,650 in the near term: Shrikant Chouhan

In the week ending March 8, we were of the view that if Nifty crosses 11,090 then it would shift the base of trading from 10,550 to 10,850 and it would extend targets from 11,200 to 11,400.

Well, market did exactly the same in the previous week and managed to close at 11,426 on a weekly basis. Bank Nifty had surprised everyone by closing almost 1,000 points higher than the highest high of 28,390 level.

However, it happens whenever foreign investors participate actively in the market. Since the last two years, foreign investors were either sellers or silent but in last 10-12 days, they pumped more than Rs 25,000 crores, which is a record-breaking investment in a very short time frame.

On the contrary, in October 2018, Indian equities witnessed record-breaking outflow from FIIs which pulled the market from 11,000 to 10,000 levels, which was nearly 1,000 points fall from the highest of the month.

In both cases, Indian rupee responded to the direction of FIIs movement.

However, active response from RBI has changed the sentiment. In the long run, current FII investments are certainly healthy for the market.

Most of the time while investing they follow the approach of top-down in any country. It shows that macros and micros are going to improve in the long run.

For the current week, technically, we feel that the markets have approached extreme levels in the short term, and some consolidation could be seen.

As per options data and India Volatility Index (VIX), the market should come under a quick drop to 11,320-11,290. However, it would remain the last opportunity for positional traders to cover up their short sell positions, which they have created at earlier resistance (11,100 levels).

Any fall beyond 11,300 would be a fresh buying opportunity in the market. Ultimate supports exist at 11,150 and 11,000, which was earlier resistance zone for the market.

On the higher side, chances of hitting 11,600-11,650 are bright in the next few weeks. Resistance exists at 11,490 and 11,550.

In brief, Nifty is poised to hit the level of 11,600-11,650; however, prior to that, we can expect a minor decline to 11,320-11290 levels.

On Monday, in case Nifty fails to cross 11,490 then it would result in a gradual decline to 11,320 levels. Bank Nifty should arrest at 29,650 in the near term. Support levels exists at 29,000-29,800.

If Nifty fails to cross 11,490, take a contra bet of selling short around 11,465-11,475. For that keep a final stop loss at 11,510.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Sun Pharma surges 3% as subsidiary Taro posts strong Dec qtr show

Shares of Sun Pharmaceutical soared 3 percent in trade on Thursday morning as investors reacted to good numbers by Taro Pharma, its subsidiary.

The stock touched an intraday high of Rs 426.75 and an intraday low of Rs 422.30.

Taro Pharma reported net sales of USD 176.4 million and is higher by 13 percent. The net profit rose 422 percent to USD 93.5 million. The operating performance by company also witnessed a boost.

Operating profit rose USD 78.9 million, while operating margins rose to 44.7 percent from 39.7 percent

At 09:18 hrs Sun Pharmaceutical Industries was quoting at Rs 425.95, up Rs 10.55, or 2.54 percent, on the BSE.

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Source: Moneycontrol

ITC to announce Q3 earnings today; brokerages expect profit to grow around 12%

Cigarette-to-hospitality major ITC is likely to report strong earnings growth for the quarter-ended December 2018, driven by higher realisation in cigarette and performance improvement in other FMCG and hotels businesses.

The stock rallied 7 percent in 2018 but fell 5 percent during the third quarter. The overall gain was a consequence of no change in tax on cigarettes in last several GST Council meetings.

The company is scheduled to declare its Q3 earnings report on January 23.

According to brokerages, profit is expected to show an average 12 percent growth year-on-year.

ICICI Securities, which expects highest profit growth among brokerages considered for this copy, said with improving margins in the FMCG business and higher realisations in the cigarette business, net profit (adjusted for one-offs in the base quarter) is likely to grow 13.8 percent YoY.

Prabhudas Lilladher estimates 11.2 percent YoY increase in PAT on cigarette volumes and improved profitability in FMCG and hotels.

Largely, brokerages expect revenue growth in the range of 9-12 percent for the quarter ended December 2018. Only Sharekhan estimates more than 15 percent growth in topline, driven by growth across segments barring paper business.

"ITC is expected to post 11.4 percent YoY sales growth during the quarter on the back of robust growth from the cigarettes & FMCG segments," ICICI Securities said while Motilal Oswal expects net sales to grow 9 percent YoY.

Cigarette, the key business which contributes more than 40 percent to total revenue, is expected to deliver 4-6 percent growth in volumes on a low base of 5 percent drop during Q3FY18, according to brokerages.

Antique Stock Broking and Edelweiss Securities expect 6 percent volume growth in cigarette business whereas Motilal Oswal and ICICI Securities estimate at 5 percent each. Prabhudas Lilladher and Reliance Securities see 5 percent growth.

Prabhudas Lilladher said cigarette margins are expected to improve marginally on the benefit of price increase taken in Q2 in RST filters whereas Edelweiss Securities said no change in GST rates also leads to no pricing imbalances in the system.

Among others, FMCG, hotels and agri-businesses are expected to show double-digit growth but paper segment growth is likely to remain subdued.

Antique Stock Broking expects continued double-digit growth in other FMCG (non-cigarettes), led by series of dairy product launch, but it will weigh on margin due to high advertising & promotion.

"In FMCG business, we expect around 11 percent revenue growth on a base of 11.8 percent (Q2FY19 saw revenue growth of 12.7 percent on a base of 5 percent)," said Edelweiss Securities that expects hotels business to clock revenue growth of around 10 percent on a base of 9.2 percent and agri-business to clock growth of around 10 percent YoY on a base of negative 8.4 percent growth.

Paper business is expected to be subdued and may record 1 percent revenue growth on a base of -4.2 percent, according to Edelweiss.

Key issues to watch out for

> Trends in cigarette volumes

> Demand outlook for FMCG categories and segmental profitability

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