Nifty target for March at 9,500; retail flows & Modi's win in 2019 big risks: UBS

The second edition of the UBS Evidence Lab Market Thinking Game was sent to investors in the week of October 31, 2018. The survey, instead of asking investors their own views, asked investors to predict what other investors think.

Specifically asked were two questions:

1) to rank five possible drivers for the Nifty in order of importance, according to their perception of other investors' views; and

2) to predict market sentiment around the Nifty ranging from very bearish (a score of 1) to very bullish (a score of 5).

Sentiment has turned bearish; oil, liquidity top drivers

About 61 percent of the respondents indicate a bearish sentiment for the Nifty compared to 31 percent in the previous survey. Only 7 percent of respondents remain bullish compared to 28 percent last time.

The responses indicate oil prices continue to be the most important driver– much like the first survey conducted in July 2018.

Liquidity for financials is considered to be the second most important driver, followed by politics/elections. Notably, fund flows appear to have lost their importance in investors' minds and has been assigned the least important ranking. The rupee exchange rate continues to be ranked lower.

Investor sentiment at UBS India Conference

At the 14th UBS India Conference, overseas investors indicated continued robust interest in India. However, the recent market correction and key developments (liquidity crunch, oil, and RBI-government issues) were clearly a consideration among investors.

Most global/global emerging market (GEM) investors appear to be willing to weather the above, given India’s relative growth potential. Most global investors appear to be presuming that PM Narendra Modi will come back in 2019, and the markets may not be pricing in any build-up of potentially adverse perceptions into May 2019.

Rich valuations and elections/local flows risk mispriced

Markets have de-rated from 19x one-year forward PE to 16x. Perhaps, the above bearish sentiment suggests a potential bottoming out?

In our view, one of the major factors behind the fall in markets (recent liquidity squeeze) would not turn into a prolonged credit crunch although we believe the easy money seen over the past 3-4 years is behind us.

The worst of rupee depreciation against GEM currencies may be behind us too. However, two key risks remain for the markets: 1) whether Modi will win in 2019; and 2) retail flows.

H2FY19 growth may also not enthuse markets, as the base effect wears off and the impact of tight liquidity is felt. Under the base case, UBS has a target of 9,500 for March 2019 on Nifty and upside/downside scenario of 11,100/8,300 – implying unattractive risk-reward.

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Oil prices climb amid expected OPEC cut, but markets remain wary

Oil prices rose around 1 percent on Monday as traders expected top exporter Saudi Arabia to push producer club OPEC to cut supply towards year-end.

Despite that, market sentiment remains weak on signs of a demand slowdown amid deep trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $67.29 per barrel at 0259 GMT, up 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up 71 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $57.17 per barrel.

"The market's bullish radar is still waiting for OPEC+ to deliver a sizeable cut number," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), de-facto led by Saudi Arabia, is pushing for the producer cartel and its allies to cut 1 million to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply to adjust for a slowdown in demand growth and prevent oversupply.

Despite Monday's gains, crude prices remain almost a quarter below their recent peaks in early October, weighed down by surging supply and a slowdown in demand growth.

This comes in part after Washington granted Iran's major oil customers, mostly in Asia, unexpectedly broad exemptions to sanctions it re-imposed on Tehran in November.

Japanese refiner Fuji Oil is set to resume Iranian crude purchases after Japan received one of those waivers, industry sources familiar with the matter said.

Japan had ceased all purchases of Iranian oil prior to receiving the waiver in early November.

Meanwhile, oil production in the United States is surging.

US energy firms added two oil rigs in the week to Nov. 16, bringing the total count to 888, the highest level since March 2015, a weekly report by energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday.

The rising drilling activity points to a further increase in US crude oil production, which has already jumped by almost a quarter this year, to a record 11.7 million bpd.

Put off by a surge in supply and the slowdown in demand, financial markets have been becoming increasingly wary of the oil sector, with money managers cutting their bullish wagers on crude futures and options to the lowest level since June 2017, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

The speculator group cut its combined futures and options positions on US and Brent crude during the week ended Nov. 13 to the lowest since June 27, 2017.

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The diamond industry is in trouble and it is not because of Nirav Modi

The Indian diamond industry is being forced to change the way in works.

While to some it may appear that this is a result of financial scams involving some of the biggest names in the diamond and jewellery business, the causes go much beyond that. It's true that sharp practices by Indian diamantaires (such as scam accused Nirav Modi) made almost every international bank run shy of advancing money to the trade almost five years ago, but there are other developments that threaten to alter the way the trade works, not only in India, but globally as well.

In 2015, Betterdiamondinitiative.com stated the following:

More than 30 major diamond mines are rapidly reaching their end of life by 2030. Rough diamond production is forecasted to fall by more than 50 percent from current levels by 2030.

The scenario will further aggravate by 2050, when only 14 million carats of global rough diamond production is predicted by Frost & Sullivan. Similar forecasts have been made by Bain, McKinsey and De Beers.

The list is quite long.

Mines like Argyle (Australia) and Ekati (Canada) now have reserves for only 7 years

Argyle, the third largest diamond mine by volume, will reach its end of life by 2020

Major mines in South Africa (Venetia, Kimberly and Voorspoed) and in Botswana have less than 10 years of reserves

Voorspoed mine (South Africa) has life only till 2021

Venetia mine has already exhausted its open pit reserves

De Beers is ending its Kimberly operations. The mine is expected to reach its end of life this year

A little over a month ago, Berenberg, in its report titled, 'Diamonds: Icy Winds of Change', dated September 19 announced similar conclusions. It stated that supply is falling and demand rising. “We think the inflection will occur around 2021, but between now and then we forecast a market surplus driven by the emergence of new mines, which are producing lots of low value, small diamonds. Adjusting for this, we think there will be market tightness in 2022. This led to a bifurcated market, with small diamond prices under pressure and large diamonds, where there are better margins for midstream participants, being structurally more attractive.”

More interestingly, both Better Diamond Initiative and Berenberg are in agreement that lab-grown diamonds (also referred to as synthetic diamonds by some) are a disrupter. Berenberg’s survey of around 2,000 millennial women from around the globe showed that while there is still a market for earth-mined diamonds, there was a growing preference for lab-grown diamonds. The reasons for this are many.

First, lab-grown diamonds generally have less flaws than earth-mined diamonds. In markets where flaws are considered inauspicious, the preference for lab-grown diamonds is growing. It is seen to be more friendly to the ecology (it does not scar the earth) and avoids the taint of blood diamonds.

Second, it is almost impossible to tell the difference between earth-mined and lab-grown diamonds.

Third, lab-grown diamonds are less expensive than earth-mined diamonds (sometime by over 30 percent). The market for this type of diamonds, as per the Berenberg report, could swell to $3.7 billion by 2030. That would help fill the vacuum that would otherwise have existed between the market for diamond jewellery and the supply of earth-mined roughs.

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Market Live: Sensex off highs, Nifty continues to hold 10,700; PSU banks fall

Barring Infra and PSU bank index, all other sectoral indices are trading in green.

Market Update Equity benchmarks were higher on Monday morning, with Sensex rising over 100 points. The Nifty held 10,700.

The Sensex is up 106.39 points or 0.30% at 35563.55, while the Nifty was higher by 21.80 points or 0.20% at 10704.00. The market breadth was narrow as 899 shares advanced, against a decline of 712 shares, while 80 shares unchanged.

Promoters of Vikas Ecotech have sold shares worth Rs 15.9 crore for inorganic growth opportunity. The funds raised through such a mode will be utilized in the company through zero interest unsecured loan.

Buzzing: Share price of Tata Investment Corporation gained more than 8 percent in the early trade on Monday after company approved the buyback plan.

The company board approved a proposal to buyback upto 45 lakh equity shares of the company for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 450 crore being 8.17 percent of the total paid-up equity share capital, at Rs 1,000 per share.

Rupee Update: After a flat opening the Indian rupee is trading lower by 13 paise at 72.05 per dollar on Monday versus previous close 71.92.

Market opens: Equity benchmarks have opened higher on Monday with Nifty is well above 10,700 mark, while Sensex also gained more than 150 points.

The Sensex is up 160.65 points at 35,617.81, while Nifty is up 40.60 points at 10722.80. About 536 shares have advanced, 231 shares declined, and 44 shares are unchanged. 

Jet Airways down 10 percent, Bharti Airtel is down 2 percent, Siemens is down 4 percent, HPCL, IOC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank are among major losers. Tata Investment gained 7 percent.

Market at pre-open: Indian indices are trading higher in the pre-opening trade with Nifty is trading above 10,700 level.

The Sensex is up 124.64 points or 0.35% at 35581.80, while Nifty up 61.20 points or 0.57% at 10743.40.

The Indian rupee opened flat at 71.92 per dollar on Monday versus previous close 71.92.

Dollar Updates: The dollar was modestly lower against its key rivals on Monday after Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the global growth outlook, prompting traders to reassess the pace of future US interest rate increases.

Crude Update: Oil prices rose on Monday as traders expected top exporter Saudi Arabia to push producer club OPEC to cut supply towards the end of the year.

SGX Nifty: Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a gain of 53.50 points or 0.50 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,751.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Asian markets trades firm: Asian shares inched cautiously higher on Monday amid conflicting signals on the chance of a truce in the Sino-US trade dispute, while a new-found air of concern on the global outlook at the Federal Reserve undermined the dollar.

Wall Street ends mixed on Friday: The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the United States may not have to impose further tariffs on Chinese goods, but falling shares of Nvidia Corp dragged down the Nasdaq.

Disclaimer:- The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Market Live: Sensex off highs, Nifty continues to hold 10,700; PSU banks fall

Barring Infra and PSU bank index, all other sectoral indices are trading in green.

Market Update Equity benchmarks were higher on Monday morning, with Sensex rising over 100 points. The Nifty held 10,700.

The Sensex is up 106.39 points or 0.30% at 35563.55, while the Nifty was higher by 21.80 points or 0.20% at 10704.00. The market breadth was narrow as 899 shares advanced, against a decline of 712 shares, while 80 shares unchanged.

Promoters of Vikas Ecotech have sold shares worth Rs 15.9 crore for inorganic growth opportunity. The funds raised through such a mode will be utilized in the company through zero interest unsecured loan.

Buzzing: Share price of Tata Investment Corporation gained more than 8 percent in the early trade on Monday after company approved the buyback plan.

The company board approved a proposal to buyback upto 45 lakh equity shares of the company for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 450 crore being 8.17 percent of the total paid-up equity share capital, at Rs 1,000 per share.

Rupee Update: After a flat opening the Indian rupee is trading lower by 13 paise at 72.05 per dollar on Monday versus previous close 71.92.

Market opens: Equity benchmarks have opened higher on Monday with Nifty is well above 10,700 mark, while Sensex also gained more than 150 points.

The Sensex is up 160.65 points at 35,617.81, while Nifty is up 40.60 points at 10722.80. About 536 shares have advanced, 231 shares declined, and 44 shares are unchanged. 

Jet Airways down 10 percent, Bharti Airtel is down 2 percent, Siemens is down 4 percent, HPCL, IOC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank are among major losers. Tata Investment gained 7 percent.

Market at pre-open: Indian indices are trading higher in the pre-opening trade with Nifty is trading above 10,700 level.

The Sensex is up 124.64 points or 0.35% at 35581.80, while Nifty up 61.20 points or 0.57% at 10743.40.

The Indian rupee opened flat at 71.92 per dollar on Monday versus previous close 71.92.

Dollar Updates: The dollar was modestly lower against its key rivals on Monday after Federal Reserve officials expressed caution over the global growth outlook, prompting traders to reassess the pace of future US interest rate increases.

Crude Update: Oil prices rose on Monday as traders expected top exporter Saudi Arabia to push producer club OPEC to cut supply towards the end of the year.

SGX Nifty: Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a gain of 53.50 points or 0.50 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,751.50-level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Asian markets trades firm: Asian shares inched cautiously higher on Monday amid conflicting signals on the chance of a truce in the Sino-US trade dispute, while a new-found air of concern on the global outlook at the Federal Reserve undermined the dollar.

Wall Street ends mixed on Friday: The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the United States may not have to impose further tariffs on Chinese goods, but falling shares of Nvidia Corp dragged down the Nasdaq.

Disclaimer:- The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts are their own. Ripples Advisory advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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The week in 10 charts: Market ends higher amid lower crude prices, rising rupee, mixed earnings

The market, which remained range-bound for the better part of the week gone by, ended it on a positive note.

The Sensex and Nifty closed close to 1 percent higher week on week amid a mixed set of results from India Inc, some appreciation in the rupee, weakening crude oil prices and positive global cues.

In the week ended November 16, the Sensex rose 0.84 percent to 35,457, while Nifty rose 0.91 percent to 10,682.2.

On a weekly basis, the rupee appreciated around 1 percent and ended at 71.92 to the dollar. Crude oil prices fell by over 4 percent to end at $66.76 per barrel.

"Albeit Nifty50 appears to have registered a breakout, above its 8-day old consolidation zone between 10,440-10,650 levels, it is not looking that convincing enough as the said breakout is on the back of negative advance:decline ratio and with a 64-point narrow range which depicted a small bullish candle on daily chart where as a Hanging Man kind of formation on weekly charts," said Mazhar Mohammad, Chief Strategist – Technical Research & Trading Advisory, Chartviewindia.in.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for October came in at 5.28 percent, as against 5.13 percent for September. The country's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for September was at 4.5 percent, as against 4.7 percent for August.

The volatility index (India VIX) was up 3.2 percent this week. The BSE Largecap index rose 0.69 percent, while the BSE Midcap index gained 0.36 percent and the BSE Smallcap fell 1.27 percent.

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S&P, Dow advance on trade optimism; Nvidia sinks Nasdaq

The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials rose on Friday after President Donald Trump said the United States may not have to impose further tariffs on Chinese goods, but falling shares of Nvidia Corp dragged down the Nasdaq.

All three indexes had been lower in early trade as an underwhelming outlook from Nvidia weighed on the tech sector.

US stocks moved higher after Trump said China seemed willing to make a deal on trade.

"The market is paying attention very closely to anything surrounding trade," said Veronica Willis, investment strategy analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis. "(A trade deal) would boost expectations for global growth, which would ultimately be good for stocks."

But lagging Nvidia shares kept the Nasdaq in negative territory.

Nvidia's shares tumbled 18.8 percent after the chipmaker pointed to the decline in cryptocurrency mining as the cause of its declining sales. The chipmaker's shares also weighed on the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index , which declined 1.2 percent.

Facebook shares also dropped 3.0 percent upon renewed concerns that the company could face regulatory scrutiny following a New York Times report on Wednesday about the company's attempts to deflect criticism of its handling of Russian propaganda.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 123.95 points, or 0.49 percent, to 25,413.22, the S&P 500 gained 6.07 points, or 0.22 percent, to 2,736.27 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 11.16 points, or 0.15 percent, to 7,247.87.

Comments from Richard Clarida, newly appointed Federal Reserve vice chair, that US interest rates were nearing the central bank's estimates of a neutral rate also lent support to stocks, investors said.

For the week, however, all three indexes posted losses. The S&P 500 fell 1.61 percent, the Dow lost 2.22 percent, and the Nasdaq shed 2.15 percent.

S&P 500 energy stocks rose 1.1 percent as oil prices recovered from sharp losses this week on expectations that OPEC and its allies would agree to cut output next month.

S&P 500 utility stocks also jumped, advancing 1.3 percent, as PG&E Corp shares surged 37.5 percent. Statements from the California Public Utilities Commission raised hopes that the embattled company could be spared from bankruptcy if it were found liable for the state's deadliest-ever wildfire.

Consumer discretionary stocks fell 0.5 percent. Continuing a gloomy week for retailers, shares of department store operator Nordstrom Inc tumbled 13.7 percent after quarterly same-store sales missed estimates and the company reported charges from a credit card problem.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.20-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.03-to-1 ratio favoured advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 27 new 52-week highs and 10 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 26 new highs and 109 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.18 billion shares, compared to the 8.61 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

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MF Wrap: SIP inflows rise in first 7 months of FY19 despite markets being volatile

Systematic investment plans, better known as SIPs, are in the news again as their collections rose in the first seven months of FY19, despite the market grappling with volatility in that period.

According to data provided by Association of Mutual Funds in India, in April-October FY19, mutual funds collected a total of Rs 52,472 crore through SIPs, around 50 percent higher than the Rs 34,887 crore they collected in the same period last year.

The data reveals that the MF industry has added 10.05 lakh SIP accounts each month on average so far this fiscal year. The average SIP size stood at around Rs 3,200 per account.

At present, domestic mutual funds have about 2.49 crore SIP accounts through which investors regularly invest in Indian mutual fund schemes.

In the first seven months of FY19, the S&P BSE 100 has fallen marginally but the S&P BSE 150 MidCap Index has plunged over 12 percent.

Foreign institutional investor outflows, high crude oil prices and the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar have kept Indian equity markets volatile.

The data by AMFI clearly shows that despite the markets being volatile, investors are not shunning SIPs. Experts said investors are becoming more savvy and mature.

SIPs are investment plans offered by MFs wherein one can invest a fixed amount in a scheme periodically at fixed intervals, say once a month, instead of making a lump-sum investment.

The SIP instalment amount could be as small as Rs 500 per month. SIP is similar to a recurring deposit offered by banks wherein you deposit a small/fixed amount every month.

SIP is a very convenient method of investing in MFs. By issuing standing instructions to your bank to debit your account every month, one can avoid the hassle of having to write out a cheque.

This method has been gaining popularity among Indian MF investors, as it helps in rupee cost averaging and also in investing in a disciplined manner without worrying about volatility and timing the market.

SIPs help investors average their cost over a period of time, fetching more units when prices are low and fewer units when prices are high.

In the current scenario, buying at low prices and selling at higher prices works brilliantly because the volatility means you buy more units at a lesser price and hence, your ultimate returns will be better.

Experts also feel that investor education initiatives by AMFI and industry players are aiding SIP flows. Over the years, investors have also matured and have learnt to ignore the market noise and continue investing through SIPs month after month.

This unwavering discipline has helped many SIP investors build an impressive portfolio. This provides confidence to MF officials who now feel that SIP flows will remain steady and will not go away when the market is volatile.

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Volkswagen to spend 44 billion euros on 'electric offensive' by 2023

German auto giant Volkswagen said on November 16 it will invest 44 billion euros by 2023 in the smarter, greener cars of the future as it ramps up efforts to shake off the "diesel gate" emissions cheating scandal.

Over the coming five years, Volkswagen said it aims to spend "almost 44 billion euros" ($50 billion) on electric, self-driving and connected cars as well as mobility services like car sharing.

The figure represents roughly a third of the group's planned expenditure between now and 2023, and the bulk of it will go on developing e-cars, VW said following a supervisory board meeting on future strategy.

Volkswagen's "electric offensive" underscores just how serious the automaker is about closing the gap with Asian competitors and US tech giant Tesla who have had a head start in the e-car race.

"We want to make Volkswagen the global number one in e-mobility," CEO Herbert Diess told reporters.

"The time has come to take further technology and product decisions to achieve that goal." The group, whose brands range from luxury Porsche and Audi to the budget-conscious Skoda and Seat, has set itself the ambitious target of offering more than 50 electric models by 2025, up from six today.

It has high hopes in particular for the "affordable", zero-emission Volkswagen ID compact which will have a battery range of 550 kilometers (340 miles) and cost roughly the same as a Volkswagen Golf -- in a direct challenge to Tesla's mass-market Model 3.

As part of the new strategy, Volkswagen intends to reshuffle some production sites in a bid to boost efficiency and achieve savings by bundling production of different models across brands.

"We are making our plants fit for the future," Volkswagen board member Oliver Blume said.

Two existing German plants will be converted into assembly lines for all-electric vehicles from 2022.

The plant in Emden will specialise in building small electric cars and sedans for several of the group's brands, while the Hanover factory will make the ID Buzz, the clean-energy version of VW's iconic camper van.

In a nod to concerns about job losses, Diess acknowledged that electric motors, which require fewer parts than combustion engines, are "much less complex" to build.

But Volkswagen has promised to guarantee jobs at both sites until 2028, focusing instead on phasing out positions by not replacing those who retire.

VW also announced plans to open a new factory at a yet to be determined location in eastern Europe.

Diess additionally confirmed that Volkswagenwas "currently in talks" on teaming up with US competitor Ford in building light commercial vehicles, which would involve sharing factories.

But he stayed coy on speculation that the cooperation could extend into electric and autonomous car manufacturing.

Diess said partnerships were becoming necessary to achieve cost savings at a time when the industry is undergoing an expensive transformation.

Looking further ahead, Volkswagen said it was still "exploring the potential" of manufacturing its own batteries for electric cars as concern grows in Europe about the Asian dominance in battery cell production.

Volkswagen's pivot towards e-cars has in part been spurred by efforts to shake off its ongoing "diesel gate" scandal.

The group was forced to admit in 2015 that it had installed cheating software in 11 million diesel vehicles designed to dupe pollution tests.

Suspicions of trickery later spread to other car makers too, badly hurting the industry's reputation.

The saga also fueled a backlash against diesel, with a string of German cities now facing driving bans for the oldest, most polluting diesel cars.

Faced with increasingly angry drivers, the German government has come under pressure to avoid the bans but its efforts to get car makers to commit to cleaning up engines have had limited success.

The "diesel gate" fallout has so far cost Volkswagen more than 28 billion euros in fines, buybacks and compensation and the company remains mired in legal woes around the world.

Nevertheless customers have remained loyal, helping Volkswagen to record sales last year.

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Trump thinks US will have a trade deal with China

US President Donald Trump on November 16 said he thinks there will be a trade deal with China, reiterating that he wants a deal which is fair and on a reciprocal basis.

Trump's statement came ahead of his meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Argentina later this month.

The US President kicked off the trade war in June by slapping additional tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese exports, piling up pressure on China to reduce over $335 billion trade deficit in $710.4 billion bilateral trade.

"We have tariffs coming in on $250 billion worth of goods and we're talking about billions and billions of dollars a month will flow into our country, and has already started flowing into our country, that comes from China," Trump told reporters during a news conference.

"So China's never been put in this position, and I don't want to put them in a bad position. I want to put them in a great position. But it's called reciprocal. We have to have a reciprocal trade. We can't have a trade that's meant for stupid people. And that's the way they took advantage of our country. And we don't have that anymore, and they understand that," he said.

"I think a deal will be made. We'll find out very soon," Trump said in response to a question.

China has sent to the US a list of 142 items which they are willing to negotiate. That's good, he said.

"China wants to make a deal. They sent a list of things that they're willing to do, which was a large list. It is just not acceptable to me yet, but at some point, I think we are doing extremely well with respect to China. I have a great respect for President Xi. I have a great respect for China," Trump said.

Trump alleged that China has taken advantage of the United States for many, many years.

"I think that they're going to come in, and we're going to either open up China and make it fair, because it's not fair right now. They do very little business with us, and we do a lot of business. It, you know, it's just can't be. Plus they have tremendous barriers. They have tremendous tariffs on us that we didn't have on them," he said.

But that's all changed now, the President said.

"The US has put on tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods and we have another $267 billion to go if we want to.

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