Sugar exports surge to 17.44 lakh tonnes this year so far: Industry data

The country's sugar exports surged to 17.44 lakh tonnes so far in the current marketing year ending September, as against about 5 lakh tonnes shipped in the entire 2017-18, industry data showed Thursday.

Out of the 17.44 lakh tonnes exported between October 1 and April 6, raw sugar accounted for nearly 8 lakh tonnes, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said in a statement.

Another 4.3 lakh tonnes are in the export pipeline, it added.

"Total sugar export contract so far is around 27 lakh tonnes, out of which 21.7 lakh tonnes have been dispatched from mills," AISTA CEO R P Bhagria told PTI.

India had exported around 5 lakh tonnes of the sweetener in the last marketing year amid lower prices in the global markets, which made Indian shipments uncompetitive.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia and Iran are the major export destinations, AISTA added.

The Centre has asked mills to export 50 lakh tonnes of sugar in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) to liquidate surplus stock. The government is providing various incentives to boost sugar exports.

India's sugar production is estimated to decline to around 310 lakh tonnes this marketing year from 325 lakh tonnes in the previous year. Still, the country has surplus stock as annual domestic demand is around 260 lakh tonnes and mills are carrying a huge stock from the previous year.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Mentha oil prices little changed; muted demand weighs

NEW DELHI: Mentha oil prices edged up with nominal gains in futures trade on Wednesday. 

Around 11 am, MCX Mentha oil was at Rs 1,469 per kg, up by Rs 2, or 0.14 per cent. 

Muted demand from consuming industriesNSE 0.80 % at the spot market and adequate stocks on higher supplies from the major producing regions weighed on the prices.

"Mentha (April) has taken a hit in the last few days as prices continue to decline amid abundant supply in the spot market and expectations of a rise in production," said Mustafa Nadeem, CEO, Epic Research. 

"The prices are expected to decline further as they have broken a few crucial supports that were established in the last three months. There is support around Rs 1,480-1,470, but with deteriorating long positions and fundamentals pointing to an increase in overall production, any ups .. 

Analysts say mentha oil prices may come lower in coming days due to the oversupply of it at the spot market. "We believe the downtrend may continue and prices can slip to Rs 1,410- 1,420 going forward," said Nadeem. 

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Source: Economictimes

Will not let Rahul Gandhi come to power by supporting traitors, says Uddhav Thackeray

Hitting out at Congress president Rahul Gandhi over his party's promise to abolish sedition law, Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray said on April 7 that he will not be allowed to come to power by supporting "traitors".

Thackeray was addressing an election rally at Kalmeshwar in support of Shiv Sena's Ramtek constituency candidate Krupal Tumane.

He said the BJP, Shiv Sena and the Republican Party of India (RPI) have come together on one ideology for the love of the nation.

"But, I want to ask why have Maha Aghadi come together who have conflicts between them. Who are these people? Our dream is for the country, what about you? Your dream is only power. Our prime minister will be Narendra Modi tomorrow also. And I want to ask the opposition to announce one name for the PM's post," said Thackeray.

Thackeray also took a potshot at Congress' promise in its manifesto to abolish the sedition law. "Do you agree with this?... Anyone who commits treason should be hanged," he said.

"If Gandhi thinks he will come to power by supporting traitors, we will not let it happen," he added.

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Source: Moneycontrol

India allows 650,000 tonnes of pulse imports this fiscal year

India has issued a combined 650,000 tonne import quota for pulses for the fiscal year to March 2020, a government order said, allowing overseas purchases of protein-rich pulse varieties that are a staple of Indian cuisine.

Two straight years of drought pushed up pulse prices in 2015 and forced New Delhi to allow duty-free imports. But record imports of 6.6 million tonnes in the 2016/17 fiscal year led to a crash in local prices.

As part of its efforts to curb imports, the government started fixing import quotas in 2018.

India is the world's biggest producer and consumer of pulses, and mainly consumes varieties such as yellow peas, green gram and chickpeas.

Farmers in Russia, Canada, Australia and Myanmar mainly rely on Indian demand.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Soybean prices to trade sideways to higher: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Apr Soybean surged for third consecutive session on Wednesday supported by short covering from market participants. Sufficient supplies and slow meal demand is bearish for soybean but improving demand for crushing and meal exports supporting prices. In its latest press release by SOPA, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Feb period in the current crop year pegged at 73 lakh tonnes (lt), up by 24.9% on year. As per SEA, soy meal exports in February provisionally reported at 69,428 tonnes, down 6% on year compared to 73,800 tonnes. Moreover, January exports are revised lower to 86,300 tonnes from over 2.1 lt reported in the last month release. In the second advance estimates for 2018-19, govt pegged 2018-19 production at 136.9 lt, up 24.7% on year. However, SOPA expects availably of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports in 2018/19 to be about 102 lt as against 86 lt last year.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to higher as El Nino gain strength, which may affect monsoon. However, higher availability may further pressurize prices at higher levels.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Sugarcane acreage may fall 40% in M’rashtra next season

Pune: At a time when India and the world markets are grappling with excess sugar stocks, the area under sugarcane could decline more than 40 per cent in Maharashtra in the next season owing to drought. “Area under sugarcane in the state is likely to decline to 6-6.5 lakh hectares next year,” Vikas Deshmukh, director at Pune-based Vasantdada Sugar Institute, which is headed by former agriculture minister Sharad Pawar, said on Tuesday. A former commissioner of agriculture of Maharashtra, Deshmukh was speaking at a conference organised by the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in Pune. 

Along with ratoon crop, Maharashtra’s farmers plant cane in three different seasons. This year, the adsali variety of sugarcane has been planted on about 1,19,000 hectares, down 47 per cent from last year.

In 2018, the variety, which grows in 18 months, was planted on about 2,24,000 hectares of the more than 1.15 million hectares of cane planted in the state. State government agencies have yet to compile data on planting of other varieties of sugarcane.

Currently, farmers are struggling to save the cane from wilting for want of water. They are even ready to accept lower cane price to get their cane harvested by mills before it wilts.

Though area under cane will decline next year, in the ongoing sugarcane crushing season the sugar industry has to contend with an unexpected increase in sugar production. 

“Sugar production in the current season is higher than our expectations. We were expecting fall in yields due to white grub infestation. However, the increase in area under cane has probably made up for any losses due to white grub,” said Sanjay Khatal, managing director, Sakhar Sangh.

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Source: Economictimes

Yes Bank gains 4% as Deutsche Bank raises price target

Yes Bank shares rallied nearly 4 percent in the morning trade on March 14 after global investment firm Deutsche Bank revised its price target for the stock upwards to Rs 300 from Rs 280 earlier.

The stock was quoting at Rs 252.90, up Rs 8.55, or 3.50 percent on the BSE, at 0942 hours IST.

While maintaining buy call on the stock, the brokerage said the tough phase for the bank is behind and it is moving towards stability.

According to the research house, earnings are likely to be softer, but the quality is set to improve going ahead.

"We expect corporate loan growth to slow down to 12-15 percent, but retail/SME Loan should grow at 40-50 percent. We expect overall loan book growth at 16-18 percent over FY20-21," Deutsche said, adding net interest margin of the bank should hold up well, though fees income may slow down.

Last month, global rating agency Moody's had changed its outlook on the company to stable from negative.

Initially this month, another global brokerage house CIMB had upgraded Yes Bank to add and also raised price target to Rs 300 (from Rs 230 earlier) as concerns abated on asset quality and the top management of the bank.

The global research house had said the nil divergence report of RBI and appointment of MD & CEO Ravneet Gill would result in a re-rating of the stock as valuations remain attractive at 1.5x FY20F P/BV.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Mentha Oil Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in mentha oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in mentha oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Commodities falter as dollar rises; trade deal in focus amid concerns over global economic growth

Commodities witnessed southward journey in the week gone by.

The yellow metal declined due to a strong dollar. Better than forecast economic data from the US boosted rally in the greenback. Sales of new homes rose in December; service industries rebounded in February by more than forecast on strength in new orders.

The ISM non-manufacturing index registered the biggest gain in a year. According to WGC, global gold backed ETFs have seen withdrawals in February. None of the base metals had a positive move due to indecision surrounding the trade deal between the US and China and appreciating dollar. China lowered its economic growth targets due to trade war.

More pain came when OECD lowered world growth forecast. The global economy suffered more than expected from trade tensions and political uncertainty which are clouding prospects particularly in Europe, according to a gloomy report from the OECD. Meanwhile, China reported the lowest trade data in more than a year due to the New Year holiday and trade tensions.

Exports fell in February and imports also weakened due to the Lunar New Year shutdown and continued uncertainty from the trade talks. Crude oil weakened as EIA reported build up of inventories. According to the latest data, US crude oil production further increased to a record 12.1 million b/d, an increase of more than 2 million b/d since early 2018.

Gold witnessed a short covering on Friday after US reported weak non-farm payrolls. Going ahead, a clear break-out above $1,300 will confirm new trend in short term. If the rally in the dollar looses momentum, the precious metals may rally in coming weeks. US is likely to post better than forecast economic data. Hence, the dollar may rise, putting pressure on the yellow metal.

On March 8, Jerome Powell said that downside risks have increased due to Brexit and trade war between US and China. He also said the growth has slowed in China, Western Europe and US. Hence gold may stay supportive after these statements. The Fed chair also said clearly that there seems no hurry to adjust interest rates but said the central bank would announce new details of plans for its balance sheet reasonably soon.

We believe bearish trend may continue in the industrial metals as couple of economic data came out which shattered traders' confidence in base metals. Chinese trade surplus shrank rapidly. Secondly, China lowered its economic growth targets as it is struggling with the US trade war, a slowing global economy and crackdown on debt. Hence, base metals are likely to trade with weak sentiment.

Traders would continue to monitor developments in the trade deal between US and China. Next week US may post strong empire manufacturing index and industrial production. Hence, this would cushion any sharp fall later in the week.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Mentha Oil Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in mentha oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in mentha oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Today Aluminium Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in aluminium. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in aluminium is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Soybean prices to trade sideways to lower: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Mar Soybean futures closed for the 5th consecutive week amid profit booking by the market participants on higher off-season arrivals and higher production forecasts. As per latest press release by SOPA, India’s soybean output is higher by38% at114.8 lakh tonnes this year due to increase in average yield across the country. Demand for Indian soy meal is growing from Europe and West Asia while Iranis emerging as one of the largest buyers. Soy meal exports up by 98% on year in January to 210,166 tonne, as per SEA press release. Overall, Soy meal exports are higher by 16% at 10.66 lakh tonnes for the Apr-Jan period compared to last year. Soy meal exports from India are expected to rise 25% on year to around 15 lakh tn in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar).

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to lower on expectation of more correction. However, reports of lower soy oil imports which may need higher crushing in coming weeks.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to lower: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Mar Soybean futures edged lower on fresh selling by the market participants. It slipped to 4-week low last week on higher production forecasts but now trend look positive. As per latest press release by SOPA, India’s soybean output is likely to rise by 38% to 114.8 lakh tonnes this year due to increase in average yield across the country. Demand for Indian soymeal is growing from Europe and West Asia while Iran is emerging as one of the largest buyers. Soymeal exports up by 98% on year in January to 210,166 tonne, as per SEA press release. Overall, Soymeal exports are higher by 16% at 10.66 lakh tonnes for the Apr- Jan period compared to last year. Soymeal exports from India are expected to rise 25% on year to around 15 lakh tn in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar).

CBOT Soybean ended Wednesday with gains mainly on technical buying and support from the cut in forecast for Brazil's 2019 soy exports. Brazil is expected to export 70.2 million tonnes of soy in 2019, consultancy. The forecast for Brazil's total soybean production was revised down slightly to 116.4 mt, compared with the prior forecast earlier this month of 116.5 mt, Agroconsult said on Wednesday, cutting its previous forecast of 73 mt. US acreage estimates from Informa were trimmed by 160,000 acres to 86.044 million.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to lower on expectation of more correction. However, reports of lower soy oil imports, which may need higher crushing in coming weeks.

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Source: Moneycontrol

India's sugar output rises about 8% between October 1- February 15: Trade body

Indian sugar mills produced 21.9 million tonnes of the sweetener between October 1 and February 15, nearly 8 percent more than a year earlier, as a few mills started crushing earlier than usual, a producers' body said on February 20.

Mills in the western state of Maharashtra produced 8.3 million tonnes sugar during the period, up 11 percent from a year ago, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.

The world's biggest sugar consumer is likely to produce 30.7 million tonnes of sugar in the current year ending on September 30, down from 32.5 million tonnes in 2017/2018, due to lower cane yields and diversion of cane for ethanol production, ISMA said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Soybean prices to trade sideways to higher: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Mar Soybean futures edged higher on fresh buying and tracking firm demand in spot market. It slipped to 4-week low last week on higher production forecasts but now trend look positive. As per latest press release by SOPA, India’s soybean output is likely to rise by38% to114.8 lakh tonnes this year due to increase in average yield across the country. Demand for Indian soymeal is growing from Europe and West Asia while Iran is emerging as one of the largest buyers. Soymeal exports up by 98% y/yin January to 210,166tonne, as per SEA press release. Overall, Soymeal exports are higher by 16% at 10.66 lakh tonnes for the Apr-Jan period compared to last year. Soymeal exports from India are expected to rise 25% on year to around 15 lakh tn in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar).CBOT Soybean closed lower on Tuesday, as traders awaited a new round of U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expected to release its forecasts for U.S. 2019 corn, soybean and wheat plantings this week at its annual Outlook Forum.US acreage estimates from Informa trimmed by 160,000 acres to 86.044 million. NOPA report indicated a record January crush by its members at 171.63 mbu down than December but 5.22% larger than a year ago Brazil’s SAFRAS soybean production estimate trimmed by 0.3 mt to 115.4 mt on Friday.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to higher due to improving physical demand on reports of lower soy oil imports.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Mentha Oil Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx mentha oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in mentha oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in mentha oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Soybean prices to trade sideways to lower: Angel Commodities

NCDEX Mar Soybean futures slipped more than 1.4% on Monday due to fresh selling. There are concern about slowing physical demand, increased arrivals and higher production forecasts. As per latest press release by SOPA, India’s soybean output is likely to rise by a staggering 38% to114.8 lakh tonnes this year due to increase in average yield across the country. However, in January, prices jumped about 12.5% on higher exports of soybean meal. Soymeal exports from India are expected to rise 25% on year to around 15 lakh tn in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar). Demand for Indian soymeal is growing from Europe and West Asia while Iran is emerging as one of the largest buyers. Soymeal exports up by 98% on year in January to 210,166tonne, as per SEA press release. Soymeal exports are higher by 16% at 10.66 lakh tonnes for the Apr-Jan period compared to last year.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways to lower on expectation of technical selling. However, good physical demand for new season crop from oil mills due to higher meal exports may keep prices supportive in coming weeks.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Stock picks of the day: Break below 10,800 on Nifty could trigger further fall to 10,650

The market ended marginally higher amid volatility for the week ended February 8 extending its prevailing consolidation phase. The sentiment was upbeat in the first three sessions taking cues from recently announced Interim Budget and optimism ahead of the monetary policy review meeting.

However, participation was limited largely to the index majors while decline continued on the broader front. Profit taking in final sessions trimmed gains of the benchmark index, too, and Nifty finally closed at 10,943.60.

The Nifty couldn’t sustain above 10,950 last week despite a good start. The momentum was weighed down by continuous fall on the broader front which kept the uneasiness intact.

We maintain our stance that convergence between the broader market and the benchmark index is essential for any sustainable move.

Nifty has crucial support at 10,800 and its breakdown could trigger further fall to 10,650. In case of any up move, 11,100 will act as a hurdle. Considering the present scenario, we advise keeping limited exposure and preferring hedged trades.

Here is a list of top three stocks which could give 4-6% return in the next 1 month:

HDFC Bank: Buy| Target: Rs 2,230| Stop-Loss: Rs 2,080| Upside 4.4%

Among the private banking space, HDFC Bank holds prominence due to its consistent performance. It is currently trading strongly above the support zone of major moving averages on multiple time frames, clearly indicating its strength.

Also, the stock is now on the verge of a fresh breakout from its two-month-long consolidation phase and is likely to make a new record high soon. We advise traders not to miss this chance and initiate fresh long positions in the mentioned zone of Rs 2125-2135.

UPL: Buy| Target: Rs 850| Stop Loss: Rs 775| Return 6.2%

UPL after consolidating in a narrow range recorded a breakout recently and is now gradually inching higher towards its record high. Though it looks firm, we may see a marginal dip before the further up move.

We advise participants to utilize that phase to create a fresh longs position in the given range Rs 790-800. It closed at Rs 805.85 on February 11, 2019.

ICICI Bank: Sell Feb Futures| Target: Rs 334| Stop Loss: Rs 364 | Downside 5.4%

After making a record high at Rs 383.55 last month, ICICI Bank is currently witnessing profit booking and likely to see fresh fall below Rs 348 levels. The resistance of long term trend line combined with the positioning of oscillators is adding to the negativity. We advise creating fresh shorts within Rs 353-356. It closed at Rs 352 on February 11, 2019.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Aluminium Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx aluminium short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in aluminium. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in aluminium is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Stock Picks of the Day: Here's why Bajaj Fin, Wockhardt are Angel Broking's top bets

Last week, one day ahead of the Union Budget, the recovery mode started for the market. After a good up move of nearly 500 points in just five days, the rally halted on the day of RBI Monetary Policy meet outcome.

It was quite surprising to see a massive sell-off on the following day, despite RBI cut the repo rate by 25bps and changed the stance to neutral. The selling aggravated in the last hour of the week to shave off a decent portion of intraweek gains.

The first half of the week gone by has been fantastic for benchmarks. In the process, Nifty managed to surpass its multi-month hurdle of 11,000.

In this move, the broader market continued to underperform but on February 7, the index consolidated and there were some early signs of revival in many individual pockets.

This ecstasy did not last long as we saw yet another bout of selling across the board on February 8 to conclude the week with a lot of ambiguity. Going ahead, if the market has to see a robust move, it would be very important for other pockets to participate as well.

As far as levels are concerned, we are still in a relatively safer zone. Going ahead, 10,900–10,850 would be seen as a key support zone. Until Nifty remains above it, there is no reason to worry. On the flipside, 11,041 followed by 11,118 are the levels to watch out for.

At this juncture, a prudent strategy would be to stay light and follow a stock specific approach. One can switch to the aggressive mode only after Nifty surpasses 11,000 along with the broader market participation.

In this scenario, a move towards 11,300–11,400 cannot be ruled out. Only a sustainable move below 10,850 would give a dent to above mentioned optimistic scenarios.

Here are two stocks that could give 7-12 percent return in the next 1 month:

Bajaj Finance: Buy| LTP: Rs 2,702| Target: Rs 2,898| Stop loss: Rs 2,620| Upside: 7 percent

This stock has seen a gradual recovery in the last three months after undergoing a massive price correction in September.

The last couple of weeks has been good for this stock and in this course of action; the stock went on to confirm a breakout from its recent congestion zone around Rs 2,650.

In addition, the ‘RSI-Smoothened’ on the daily chart has surpassed the threshold level of 70, which bodes well for the bulls. We recommend going long for a positional target of Rs 2,898 in the coming days. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 2,620.

Wockhardt: Buy| LTP: Rs 415.15| Target: Rs 468| Stop loss: Rs 395.80| Upside: 12 percent

It may sound an extremely contradictory call but looking at recent developments, we are inclined to do so. Due to recent sharp selloff, the stock prices has entered the deeply oversold territory.

On February 6, we witnessed a V-shaped recovery from its multi-year falling trend line support area. In the process, the stock prices went on to form a ‘Bullish Hammer’ pattern around it.

The said pattern has been confirmed on a closing basis and hence, we expect a good relief move in this counter. One can look to go long around for a target of Rs 468 in the coming weeks. The stop loss can be placed at Rs 395.80.

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Source: Moneycontrol