Thursday, 2 May 2019

Dabur India to report Q4 earnings today; brokerages expect PAT to jump 10-15%


FMCG company Dabur India will announce its quarterly earnings (Jan-March 2019) on May 2.

According to Kotak Institutional Equities Research, the company's adjusted PAT is likely to increase 14.1 percent at Rs 451.9 crore, while sales are likely to go up by 9.4 percent at Rs 2,224 crore.

The brokerage house expects EBITDA margin at 24.5 percent.

It expects consolidated gross margin to be broadly flat on account of benign raw material environment and better mix (lower contribution of foods).

Research house Narnolia expects the company to report 10 percent jump in its net profit at Rs 436 crore, while sales to go up by 8 percent at Rs 2,199 crore.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) is likely to go up by 10 percent at Rs 534 crore, while EBIDTA margin at 24.3%.

Gross margin is expected to decline by 59 bps YoY to 50.1% due to input inflation while slightly lower crude to put some cushion on it.

Key things to watch:

Domestic business Volume growth and Management’s commentary regarding rural growth.

Commentary regarding margins.

International business cc growth.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Gold futures decline Rs 283 on profit-booking, weak global cues

Gold prices fell by Rs 283 to Rs 31,457 per 10 gram in futures trade Thursday as speculators went for profit-booking at prevailing levels amid a weak trend overseas.

In futures trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold to be delivered in June fell by Rs 283, or 0.89 percent, to trade at Rs 31,457 per 10 gram in a business turnover of 12,113 lots.

The yellow metal for delivery in August shed Rs 236, or 0.74 percent, to trade at Rs 31,626 per 10 gram with a business volume of 434 lots.

Analysts attributed the fall in gold futures to profit-booking by traders and a weak trend in precious metals overseas.

Globally, gold shed 0.72 percent to USD 1,272.14 an ounce in Singapore.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Soybean prices are expected to trade sideways today: Angel Commodities


NCDEX May Soybean closed lower on Tuesday due to profit booking to close at 3676 rupees per 100 kg. We have seen some recovery last week but corrected amid weak physical demand and higher availably in with stockists. The prices have been under pressure since the start of April due to forecast of near normal monsoon forecast by IMD. Moreover, higher imports of edible oil also pressurize oilseed prices in the country. Soybean arrivals for the Oct-Mar period are pegged at 77 lt, up by 23.2% on year by SOPA. It expects availability of soybean for crushing, direct use and exports of about 101.8 lt as against 86 lt last year. SEA forecast soybean output at 102.43 lt in 2018/19, up more than 23% y/y.

Outlook

Soybean futures expected to trade sideways in coming days on steady demand from the physical market players. Moreover declining soybean meal export and higher edible oil imports will put extra pressure on Oilseeds.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Gold falls to one-week low as Fed ambiguity clouds rate-cut bets


Gold on Thursday fell to its lowest in a little over one week, after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dashed hopes of a near-term rate cut, boosting the dollar and treasury yields.

Spot gold shed 0.2 percent to $1,274.50 per ounce as of 0403 GMT, having fallen to $1,272.14, its lowest since April 24, earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures fell 0.7 percent to $1,275.70 an ounce.

The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but emphasized on the rhetoric that it does not see a readjustment of rates in the near term.

"We know that the Fed is going to be on pause for a while, but the market was pricing in a more dovish lean towards the end of 2019," said Stephen Innes, head of trading and market strategy, SPI Asset Management.

Powell's view on inflation revived an ailing dollar on Wednesday and also prompted U.S. Treasury yields higher.

A higher interest rate increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and pushes up the dollar and yields, leading to an inverse impact on the price of gold.

"There is a little bit of ambiguity around (Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's) inflation language in particular. He sounded almost like Janet Yellen back in 2016 when he said that inflation risk could be transitory ... So that really means the Fed is probably going to be stuck in neutral," Innes added.

Meanwhile, Asian shares also adopted a wait-and-watch approach with major centres Japan and China shut for holidays.

"Robust U.S. economic releases have eased global growth concerns as equity markets rally above 2018 highs. Strong risk appetites remain a bane for the precious metal," Benjamin Lu, analyst, Phillip Futures, said in a note.

Investors now closely monitor developments in the U.S.-China trade front with wide expectations that a deal to end a long-draw spat between the two countries could soon be realized, which may further boost risk appetite, thereby weighing on safe-haven gold.

Politico reported that the two countries are nearing a trade deal that would roll back a portion of the $250 billion in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

Elsewhere, silver was steady at $14.68 an ounce, holding close to a more than four-month trough of $14.57 from Wednesday, while platinum prices were unchanged at $863.90, having touched $856.50, its lowest in nearly a month, earlier in the session.

Palladium slipped 0.6 percent to $1,344.15, having touched its lowest level since Jan. 25 at $1,309.67 in the previous session.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil dips as US output hits record, but global markets remain tight


Oil prices dipped on Thursday after data showed record U.S. crude oil production, which resulted in a surge in stockpiles.

Outside the United States, however, oil markets remained tense as all exemptions to U.S. sanctions on Iran expire, the political crisis in Venezuela escalates, and as producer club OPEC keeps withholding supply.

Spot Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $72.09 per barrel at 0032 GMT, down 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 2 cents, at $63.58 per barrel, having eased 0.5 percent in the previous session.

"Crude oil prices fell sharply as stockpiles in the U.S. rose to their highest level since 2017," ANZ bank said on Thursday.

"This comes as U.S. refineries head into the spring maintenance period, stoking fears that crude oil demand will be soft and stockpiles will continue to rise," it added.

U.S. crude stockpiles last week rose to their highest since September 2017, jumping by 9.9 million barrels to 470.6 barrels, as production set a record high of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd), while refining activity rates fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

Outside the United States, however, oil markets remained tight amid the political crisis in Venezuela, tighter U.S. sanctions against Iran that allow no more exemptions from May, and as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to withhold supply in order to prop up prices.

Oman's energy minister Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhy said on Wednesday it was OPEC's goal to extend the cuts, which were started in January, when they next meet in June.

For producers, the tight market conditions mean higher profits.

Analysts at Bernstein Energy said current price levels reflected the average marginal cost for most listed oil producers.

"We have surveyed the 50 largest listed oil and gas companies globally... Based on 2018 annual reports we estimate that the global marginal cost of oil remained stable at $71 per barrel," Bernstein said in a note on Thursday.

"This is on line with current spot prices but higher than the long-term oil forward strip price of $61 per barrel," the note said.

"With oil prices rising more than costs, industry margins increased by more than 200 percent in 2018," Bernstein said, resulting in industry profitability "at the highest in the last 5 years."

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Source: Moneycontrol

Wednesday, 1 May 2019

Crude oil futures up on domestic cues


Crude oil prices rose by Rs 63 to Rs 4,472 per barrel in futures trade on May 1 as speculators were indulged in creating positions, taking positive cues from the domestic market.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in May contracts was trading higher by Rs 63, or 1.43 percent, to Rs 4,472 per barrel in a business turnover of 13,425 lots.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate was trading lower by 1.19 percent at $63.15, while global benchmark Brent was up 1.05 percent at $72.80 a barrel.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Copper futures edge up on spot demand


Copper prices inched up 0.04 percent to Rs 450.55 per kg in futures trade on May 1 as speculators raised their positions amid pick-up in demand at the domestic spot market.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in June contracts rose by 20 paise, or 0.04 percent, to Rs 450.55 per kg in a business turnover of 10,179 lots.

Analysts said, firm trend in base metals at the physical markets mainly led to rise in copper prices.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Silver futures slip 0.93% on weak global cues


Silver prices eased by 0.93 percent to Rs 37,756 per kg in futures trade on May 1 as investors cut down their bets taking weak cues from overseas markets. Also, profit-booking at existing levels by speculators weighed on silver prices.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in July contracts was trading lower by Rs 356, or 0.93 percent, to Rs 37,756 per kg, in a business turnover of 18,890 lots.

Similarly, the white metal for delivery in September eased by Rs 419, or 1.08 percent, to Rs 38,250 per kg in a business turnover of 2,240 lots.

Traders said off-loading of positions by participants due to a weak global trend led to the fall in silver futures.

Globally, silver shed 0.03 percent to $14.89 an ounce in Singapore.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Gold eases on firm equities; markets brace for Fed decision


Gold prices eased on May 1 on overnight gains in US equities, while a May Day lull gripped most of Asian markets ahead of a closely monitored Federal Reserve decision on the future trajectory of interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,280.24 per ounce, as of 0315 GMT. US gold futures fell 0.3 percent to $1,281.60 an ounce.

Having been weighed down earlier by slightly overcast findings from Chinese business surveys, global shares edged higher on Tuesday, after US President Donald Trump agreed with Democratic leaders to spend $2 trillion on infrastructure.

Investors also gained impetus from signs of bettering relations between the United States and China with White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney stating that their trade dispute will likely be resolved "one way or the other" in the next two weeks.

Given the strength in equity markets and economic data from far and wide, "there is no need for inflation hedges in the gold market," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist, CMC Markets.

"However, the pulling back of the US dollar from recent highs over the last few sessions have been broadly supportive of gold."

Euro zone reported stronger-than-expected economic growth for the first quarter, thereby dispelling some pessimism over the euro and jolting the economic bloc's common currency higher against the dollar.

Many Asia financial markets are shut for a May Day holiday on Wednesday.

Most market players also look to the culmination of a two-day meeting by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will likely determine the path of interest rates in the future, at least for this year.

"There has been some speculation that the recent strong GDP and employment data in the US might see the Fed signal a more hawkish stance. While I do expect the Fed to acknowledge the strong numbers, I don't think they'll shift their stance at all," CMC Markets' McCarthy added.

Interest rates have a proportional relationship with the dollar, and thereby, determine the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Elsewhere, silver dipped 0.2 percent to $14.91 per ounce, while platinum prices were largely unchanged at $885.91.

Palladium, on the other hand, fell 0.9 percent to $1,375.57 an ounce.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil pares gains as fears ease on Venezuelan exports


Oil prices pared their gains on Tuesday, after global benchmark Brent crude rose above $73 a barrel, as the market grew less worried that a rebellion against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would hit the country's crude exports.

Prices rose after Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido called for military backing to end Maduro's rule, but pared gains after the government said state-run oil company PDVSA's operations were not disrupted and top military leaders remained loyal.

"The possibility that Guaido will take control of the situation isn't as strong as perceived this morning," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. "If Maduro hangs on, you'll see the market stay lower."

Brent crude futures hit a session high of $73.27 per barrel and settled 76 cents, or 1.1 percent, higher at $72.80. Last week, Brent hit a six-month high above $75.

U.S. crude futures closed at $63.91, up 41 cents, or 0.7 percent, on the day, after hitting a session high at $64.75.

Prices pared their gains further in post-settlement trade after industry group American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude inventories rose 6.8 million barrels last week, more than analysts' forecasts for a 1.5 million-barrel build. Official government data is due on Wednesday.

OPEC member Venezuela's oil exports have already been reduced by U.S. sanctions on PDVSA and an economic crisis, helping to curb the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' production to a four-year low, according to a Reuters survey.

If Maduro's government remains in power for much longer, Venezuela's crude exports and output will continue to decline as the OPEC producer wrestles with power outages and other problems, analysts said.

"The situation appears to be getting much worse, rather than better," said Phillip Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. "Their oil production is going to continue to slide."

Earlier, crude prices drew support when Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said a deal between producers to cut output could be extended to the end of 2019. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured OPEC to raise output as Washington has tightened sanctions against Iran.

OPEC and other allies led by Russia have agreed to cut output by around 1.2 million bpd for six months until the end of June. The group meets in Vienna on June 25-26 to decide on next steps.

Also supporting prices was government data showing that U.S. crude production fell in February for the second month in a row, sliding 187,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 11.7 million bpd.

"That's modestly supportive of prices," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. "We saw a pullback in operations in reaction to lower prices from last year. It shows the march forward to ever-higher production isn't limitless."

Rising output to record levels has made the U.S. the top global oil producer, helping to boost domestic crude stocks to their highest since October 2017.

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Source: Moneycontrol