Wednesday 15 June 2016

There's an odd Disconnect Between the Fear index and the Market

Market fear is rising, but it would appear that someone forgot to tell the market. The CBOE Volatility Index looks set to log its seventh straight rise Tuesday, in what would be only the third time the VIX has managed that long a string of gains in the past 20 years. 

But what is even more unusual is how the S&P 500 is responding to the surge in expected volatility. The S&P and the VIX tend to have a strong inverse correlation, which makes sense, since the VIX roughly tracks nervousness over potential market downside. 

But in the current VIX rise, the market has stayed remarkably stable. In the six days ended Monday, which saw the VIX jump 56 percent, the S&P 500 was down less than 1 percent. 

That is in sharp contrast to the average S&P drop of 6.7 percent during six-day periods in which the VIX has risen 55 percent or more. In fact, never before in the past 20 years of market data has the S&P been down this little in a six-day period that saw the VIX rise by this much.

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