November proved to be a strong month for the stock market, especially after a disappointing September and October. The Sensex and Nifty gained around 5 percent each during the month.
Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in the month gone by, as they bought more than Rs 10,000 crore worth of shares. They had net sold more than Rs 39,000 crore worth of stocks in previous three months.
Factors that had impacted markets negatively earlier turned favourable in November. Crude oil prices fell from the recent record highs, the rupee reversed some of its recent depreciation, FIIs turned net buyers, and the Federal Reserve hinted at no aggressive rate hikes from hereon.
"The fall in oil prices and the stability in the rupee exchange rate are factors that are of consequence to the domestic equity market. This is basically due to the fact that both these have consequences for the domestic price level or inflation, and therefore, for interest rates," Joseph Thomas, Head - Research, Emkay Wealth Management, told Moneycontrol.
The moderation in these two variables will definitely provide some support to the economy, Thomas said.
Experts said there could be some volatility going ahead, particularly because of triggers like the RBI monetary policy meeting, and the outcome of state elections. But with foreign investors back on D-Street, some of the macroeconomic headwinds have now become tailwinds.
"Nifty should be able to reclaim 11,000 in December series. RBI’s monetary policy on December 5 and state election results will be key to market movements. Our expectation is RBI’s policy will maintain status quo on rate hikes, which will be a breather," Dharmesh Kant, Head - Retail Research, IndiaNivesh Securities, told Moneycontrol.
Jayant Manglik, President, Religare Broking, recommended a cautiously optimistic approach and focusing on stock selection. "In case of any decline, Nifty would find support around 10,750 and the next major hurdle is at 11,100," he said.
Here are 6 stocks that got upgraded by brokerages in the month gone by:
Container Corporation of India
Japanese brokerage Nomura has upgraded Container Corporation of India to 'buy' from 'neutral' and increased its target price on the stock to Rs 800 from Rs 711, as the company's margin has stabilised and volume outlook is improving.
Nomura has increased the company's EPS estimates for FY19 by 2 percent on better Q2 EBITDA margin, but lowered FY20 EPS estimates by 2 percent.
Loss of share to roadways and delay in commissioning of DFC (dedicated freight corridor) are key downside risks, it said.
Zee Entertainment
HSBC has upgraded Zee Entertainment to hold from reduce with a price target at Rs 460 per share as promoter’s divestment proposal reflected acceptance of changing industry dynamics and divestment move removed concerns over company's tech capabilities.
Upside risks include a high valuation for the stake from the current level while downside risks include the sale of the stake failing to materialise, the research house said.
Ashok Leyland
Credit Suisse has upgraded Ashok Leyland, the country's second largest commercial vehicle maker, to neutral from underperform and also raised price target to Rs 118 from Rs 101 as it increased FY19/FY20 estimates by 16 / 23 percent.
The research house does not see significant impact from axle load norm changes.
"Export volumes are struggling but the company has aggressive plans in medium term," said Credit Suisse while expecting a strong pre-buy in FY20. "Scrappage could limit decline in FY21."
Marico
Macquarie has upgraded FMCG major Marico to outperform from neutral and revised target upwards to Rs 376 from Rs 331 earlier as input cost scenario has been turning benign.
Reversal in copra cycle & price increase will help boost margin in second half of FY19 and the management is confident of achieving volume guidance, the research house said.
IRB Infrastructure
Credit Suisse has upgraded the Mumbai-based road developer to neutral from underperform due to sharp fall in stock price.
However, the research house slashed target to Rs 165 from Rs 220 as it is concerned with lack of value accretion in several large assets. It has lowere its earnings estimate by 6-12 percent for FY19/20.
Low value accretion is a risk, it feels.
United Spirits
Morgan Stanley has upgraded the liquor maker to overweight and raised price target to Rs 700 from Rs 650 earlier as it sees signs of volume growth acceleration.
Cost rationalisation, improved efficiency can drive earnings, according to the research house.
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Source: Moneycontrol
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