Hindalco to post Q4 earnings today; here's what brokerages expect

Brokerages are expecting a decline in profit for Hindalco Industries, which is scheduled to post its March quarter earnings on May 16.

ICICIdirect expects Hindalco to report net profit at Rs 593.8 crore, down 3.6 percent year-on-year (-16.7 percent QoQ). Net Sales are expected to decrease 3.9 percent YoY (-6 percent QoQ) to Rs 11,225.6 crore.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are likely to rise 4.4 percent YoY (-3 percent QoQ) to Rs 1,664.7 crore.

Prabhudas Lilladher is of the view that Hindalco Industries is likely to report net profit at Rs 208.4 crore, down 44.7 percent YoY. Net Sales are expected to increase 0.9 percent YoY (-1.3 percent QoQ) to Rs 11,785.2 crore while EBITDA is likely to fall 25 percent YoY (up 1.6 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 943.1 crore, it said in a note.

Narnolia Financial Advisors models a 31 percent decline in profit to Rs 261 crore. Standalone (ex-Utkal) revenue is expected at Rs 11,470 crore. The expected YoY fall is due to fall in LME aluminium and LME copper, plus a lower copper volume.

It expects aluminium volume from the company at 325kt as operations run at full capacity while volume is expected to come in at 105kt (down 3 percent YoY, up 6 percent QoQ).

Narnolia projects standalone (ex-Utkal) EBITDA at Rs 951 crore (down 24 percent YoY, up 2 percent QoQ). It said YoY fall is due to higher other expenses, power and fuel cost.

It expects FY19 capex at Rs 1,300 crore. FY20 capex is expected to be higher than FY19 as a major portion of Utkal expansion would come in FY20.

On the other hand, Novelis is expected to deliver 811kt (flat YoY and up 1 percent QoQ) while EBITDA is expected at $276 million (down 12 percent YoY and 3 percent QoQ) due to lower LME aluminium.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects EBITDA (including Utkal Alumina) to decline 16 percent QoQ to Rs 1,430 crore (-11 percent YoY) due to lower LME aluminium prices. Net sales are expected to rise 6.1 percent QoQ to Rs 11,207.5 crore.

Kotak estimates aluminium EBITDA (including Utkal) to decline 21 percent QoQ to Rs 1,010 crore (-20 percent YoY).

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