NCDEX Jun Soybean closed higher on Thursday but traded in a range for this week to close at 3,721 rupees per 100 kg. This year soybean area may be higher as prices are higher than MSP of 3399 rupees per 100 kg. We have seen downtrend in prices last week due to lower demand for crushing on expectation of improving edible oil imports. As per latest SOPA press release, soybean arrivals for the Oct-Apr period pegged at 81 lt, up by 21.8% on year. Until April, country crushed about 62 lt of soybean compared to 55.5 lt last year. As SEA, soymeal exports are revised higher to 13.58 lt, up 14.3% in 2018/19. SEA revised March 2018 exports figures to 2.15 lt which is highest single month exports in last 26 months. USDA in its monthly report forecast output at 109 lt in 2019/20, down 5% compared to last year. Lower crude soybean oil stocks at port may support soybea but lowering of tariff on edible oils and lower soyoil in international market pressurize soybean.
CBOT Soybean closed lower on concerns about trade with China, expectations for boost in plantings as farmers will switch acres intended for corn to soybeans due to weather delays. The Export Sales report released showed 535,848 MT of old crop soybeans sold during the week of May 16. That was a 44.5% jump from last week and well above last year for this time.
Outlook
Soybean futures expected to trade sideways in coming days due to lower physical demand by the oil mills. However, higher production and increase edible oil imports will put extra pressure on Oilseeds at higher levels.
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