Showing posts with label mcx crude oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mcx crude oil. Show all posts

Thursday, 17 January 2019

Record US crude production weighs on oil prices


Oil prices dipped on Thursday as US crude production quickly approached an unprecedented 12 million barrels per day (bpd) just as worries about weakening demand emerge.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52 per barrel at 0140 GMT, down 31 cents, or 0.6 percent, from their last settlement.

International Brent crude oil futures were down 34 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $60.98 per barrel.

American crude oil production reached a record 11.9 million bpd in the week ending Jan. 11, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday, up from 11.7 million bpd last week, which was already the highest national output in the world.

US output has soared by 2.4 million bpd since January 2018, stoking fears of a supply glut.

The EIA also said gasoline stockpiles climbed 7.5 million barrels last week, far exceeding analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.8 million-barrel gain. At 255.6 million barrels, gasoline stocks were at their highest weekly level since February, 2017.

"While (US crude) inventories fell slightly more than expected, there was a large build in gasoline inventories. This stoked fears of weak demand in the US," ANZ Bank said in a note.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 3.0 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel increase, the EIA data showed.

US EXPORTS SURGE, OPEC CUTS

Along with the surge in US crude output, exports from the United States are also rising, hitting a record 3.2 million bpd by the end of last year.

"Crude oil exports from the US have strongly increased during the last few years and the trend is expected to remain positive," shipping brokerage Banchero Costa said in a note.

Norbert Ruecker, head of commodity research at Swiss Julius Baer, said "the United States is moving forward towards energy independence and is set to become a petroleum net exporter next year thanks to rising shale output".

Soaring US supply comes amid concerns over stuttering demand-growth due to a global economic slowdown, which some analysts believe will turn into a recession.

To stem a lurking petroleum glut, the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producer Russia are leading efforts to cut supply.

This has prevented crude prices from falling much lower despite softening demand and the surge in US output.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Monday, 14 January 2019

China December crude oil imports at second highest, gas imports at record


China's crude oil imports in December surged nearly 30 percent from a year earlier to the second highest for a month on a daily basis, Reuters calculations of customs data showed on Monday.

The surge was bolstered by year-end stockbuilding by small independent refiners trying to use up annual quotas and crude cargoes imported for tests on two new private refineries.

December shipments into China, the world's top crude oil buyer, were at 43.78 million tonnes, or 10.31 million barrels per day (bpd), holding above the 10 million bpd mark for the second straight month, and just a touch below the record of 10.43 million bpd in November, according to the data released by the General Administration of Chinese Customs.

For the whole of 2018, China's crude oil imports rose 10.1 percent versus the previous year to a record 461.9 million tonnes, or 9.24 million bpd. This makes China the top crude oil importer for the second year running, after it first overtook the United States on an annual basis in 2017.

The 2018 growth represents an increase of 846,600 bpd - more than 2017's net growth of 770,000 bpd - and roughly the size of consumption by the Netherlands or Turkey.

Peak operations at giant state refiners during most of the first three quarters accounted for the bulk of the import growth, joined later by new purchasing from two privately-run mega refineries ahead of trial runs, said Seng-Yick Tee of consultancy SIA Energy.

Strategic stockpiling at several state reserve sites that have just started up, such as Jinzhou in the north and Huizhou on China's southern coast, also contributed to more shipments during the last few months of 2018 as China took advantage of steep falls in benchmark prices from mid-November, said Tee.

Independent oil processors, sometimes called "teapots", played a smaller role in 2018 than in previous years due to marginal increases in their import quotas and a new tax policy that pinched their appetite for overseas crude.

"Unlike the previous two years when teapots led the incremental growth, state giants became the main drivers for last year's growth," said Tee.

China also exported a record amount of refined fuel products last year at 58.64 million tonnes, up 12 percent from 2017, aided by a larger amount of government export quotas to relieve a growing domestic fuel surplus.

RECORD GAS IMPORTS

Gas imports, including piped gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped in tankers, hit a record last month at 9.23 million tonnes, up 17 percent from the same month in 2017. The previous monthly record of 9.15 million tonnes came in November.

The hefty imports were spurred by another year of strong demand growth for the cleaner-burning fuel as Beijing extended a campaign against smog by switching another 3 million of homes to gas from coal for winter heating.

Imports for the year expanded 31.9 percent over 2017 to 90.39 million tonnes, holding the top spot among gas importers globally after overtaking that position from Japan as recently as October.

For LNG alone, China retains its spot for the second year as the world's No.2 buyer, behind Japan, after leapfrogging South Korea in 2017.

In an effort to avert the supply crunch experienced in the 2017/18 winter, state energy firms stepped up their imports of LNG and build up stocks in underground storage.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Brent crude oil prices fall below $60 on weak China trade data


Brent crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel on Monday after Chinese data showed weakening imports and exports in the world's biggest trading nation.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $59.78 per barrel at 0312 GMT, down 70 cents, or 1.2 percent from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 63 cents, or 1.2 percent, $50.96 a barrel.

China's December exports fell by 4.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest monthly drop in two years, official data showed on Monday, pointing to further weakening in the world's second-largest economy. Imports also contracted, falling 7.6 percent, the biggest decline since July 2016.

Traders said the data pulled down crude oil futures and Asian stock markets alike, which had both posted modest gains earlier on Monday.

Economic research firm TS Lombard said oil prices were capped as "the world economy is now slowing ... limiting the scope for positive surprises in oil demand and hampering inventory reduction."

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank, said "the deterioration seen recently in forward-looking economic data from the US to Europe and China" meant that the upside for crude oil futures was likely limited to $64 per barrel for Brent and for $55 for WTI.

The weak Chinese data countered general support that oil markets have been receiving since the start of the year from supply cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC allies, including Russia.

In the United States, drillers cut four oil rigs in the week to Jan. 11, bringing the total count down to 873, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly report on Friday.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Crude oil futures decline on weak trend overseas


Crude oil futures dropped by Rs 15 to Rs 3,650 per barrel on January 14 as speculators off-loaded bets amid weak trend overseas.

Marketmen said trading sentiment was dampened in futures trade here after oil prices retreated in the global market due to ample stocks.
Besides, profit-booking by participants weighed, they added.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude for delivery in February was trading down by Rs 15, or 0.41 percent, to Rs 3,650 per barrel in 1,955 lots.

Crude for March delivery fell by Rs 28, or 0.75 percent, to Rs 3,695 per barrel in a volume of 77 lots.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil eased 1.45 percent to USD 50.84 a barrel while global benchmark Brent crude was down 1.29 percent at USD 59.70.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Friday, 11 January 2019

Today Crude Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in crude oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in crude oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable. 

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Source: Moneycontrol

US oil inches down amid concerns of economic slowdown




Oil prices were also supported by comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that the central bank had the ability to be patient on monetary policy.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had slipped 23 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last settlement to $52.36 per barrel by 0016 GMT.

However, US crude was on track for a second consecutive week of gains and its largest weekly percentage increase in more than two years. WTI has climbed about 9 percent so far this week, its biggest weekly rise since December, 2016.

International Brent crude futures had yet to trade.

China said three days of talks with the United States that wrapped up on Wednesday had established a "foundation" to resolve differences over trade. But it gave few details on key issues at stake, including a scheduled US tariff increase on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.

A partial US government shutdown and tepid economic data in some countries also dragged on broad financial markets.

"The US government shutdown and weak retail sales figures around the world reinvigorated concerns about (economic) growth," analysts at ANZ bank said in a note on Friday.

China's producer prices in December rose at their slowest pace in more than two years, a worrying sign of deflationary risks that could see Beijing roll out more policy support to help stabilise the economy.

"However, investors are becoming increasingly confident that OPEC+ production cuts will balance the market," ANZ said.

Saudi Arabia said earlier this week that supply curbs started in late 2018 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers including Russia, would bring the oil market into balance.

"Saudi is turning the screws on export supply in order to re-balance the market in their favour. Prices are maintaining highs which suggests that the recent bullish move is not yet over," said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Probis Securities in Sydney.

"We expect more bullish rhetoric from OPEC, especially from Saudi Arabia to help shore up the prices. US producers will just enjoy the rise."

The likelihood of supply curbs elsewhere also helped buoy oil markets.

Norway's oil industry regulator said the country's crude output in 2019 would be smaller than previously forecast and at its lowest level in three decades.

Meanwhile, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Thursday US sanctions against his country were "fully illegal" and Tehran would not comply with them.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Iran's crude exports stay subdued in January despite waivers: Sources


Iran will see its crude exports severely curtailed for a third month in January as it is struggling to find new buyers amid fresh US sanctions even though its traditional customers secured waivers, according to tanker data and industry sources.

Iran's crude exports in November plummeted to below 1 million barrels per day, from regular sales of 2.5 million bpd before sanctions were imposed in May, and taking them back to where they stood during the previous round of sanctions in 2012-2016.

Buyers said plunging exports in November, which will severely hit the Islamic Republic's budget revenues, were caused by a total lack of clarity of what volumes they were allowed to purchase under the new US sanctions.

Washington later gave a fairly generous set of waivers to eight traditional Iranian oil buyers - including China, India, Japan and South Korea - to avoid a rally in oil prices, but the measure has failed to give a meaningful boost to exports.

According to tanker data and industry sources, Iran's crude shipments remained below 1 million bpd in December and are unlikely to exceed that level in January despite rising month-on-month.

"In January, I expect a slight uptick in the second half of the month with some Asian lifting resuming," one of the sources said. "For the time being, I am pencilling in around 900,000 bpd for January."

Regular buyer Taiwan said last year it was not yet buying Iranian oil despite receiving a waiver because of a lack of a clear payment mechanism.

Iran has said its exports have not declined as much as estimated by the industry because it was selling oil to new buyers. But it declined to disclose them because of a fear of new sanctions.

A restrained level of Iranian shipments would assist the new global push to cut oil supply in 2019 led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, from which Iran is exempt, and lend support to oil prices.

"We are forecasting slightly more than December, but not massive," said a source at another company that monitors Iranian shipments, putting the month-on-month rise at below 50,000 bpd.

Iranian exports are higher if condensate, a type of light oil, is counted as well as crude. Kpler, another company that tracks oil flows, put Iranian crude and condensate exports at 1.35 million bpd in December.

Tracking Iranian exports has become harder since the sanctions began as ships switch off tracking systems, industry sources say, keeping some of the shipments hidden.

According to Refinitiv Eikon data, shipments including condensate plunged to about 650,000 bpd in December, although such figures are probably not counting all the tankers that switch off their AIS tracking signal.

Some buyers that stayed away in November are returning. Turkey has resumed imports of Iranian oil after a one-month hiatus in November, Reuters reported on Tuesday, at a volume less than half of the pre-sanctions amount.

Shipments were at least 2.5 million bpd in April, the month before US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions.

Tehran has vowed to keep exporting oil despite the US effort to reduce its shipments to zero.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Thursday, 10 January 2019

Oil falls 1% on swelling US supply, but mood generally upbeat on trade hopes


Oil prices fell by 1 percent on Thursday on swelling US supply, although the mood in global markets was increasingly confident amid hopes the United States and China may soon end trade disputes that have undermined global economic growth.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $51.75 per barrel at 0113 GMT, down 61 cents, or 1.2 percent, from their last settlement.

International Brent crude futures were down 1 percent, or 63 cents, at $60.81 per barrel.

Both oil price benchmarks had jumped by around 5 percent the previous day as financial markets around the world surged on the hopes that Washington and Beijing may soon be able to end their trade disputes, soothing fears of an all-out trade war between the two biggest economies and its possible impact on global growth.

"Amid easing trade tension and a weaker US dollar , crude oil prices rallied after Saudi Arabia reassured the market that its production cuts would remain in place," ANZ bank said on Thursday.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister said on Wednesday he was confident that supply cuts started in late 2018 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some allies, including Russia, aimed at reining in oversupply would bring the oil market into balance.

Khalid al-Falih said he would not rule out calling for further action in future, if needed.

Despite this, US bank Morgan Stanley cut its 2019 oil price forecasts by more than 10 percent on Wednesday, pointing to "weakening economic growth expectations" and rising oil supply from outside OPEC as reasons for their lower price forecast.

Morgan Stanley now expects Brent to average $61 a barrel this year, down from a previous estimate of $69 a barrel, and US crude to average $54 per barrel, against a prior forecast of $60.

"Balancing the market would require OPEC discipline to continue well into 2020," it said.

The main source of new supply is the United States, where crude oil production remained at a record 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending Jan. 4, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

That has resulted in swelling fuel inventories.

Although crude stocks dipped by 1.7 million barrels, to 439.74 million barrels, they remained above their five-year seasonal average of 435 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks rose 8.1 million barrels, to 248.1 million barrels, marking the largest weekly rise since December, 2016. Distillate stocks swelled by 10.6 million barrels, to 140.04 million barrels.

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Source: Moneycontrol

US oil export boom sparks a battle to build Texas ports


Booming US oil exports have set off a scramble to build Gulf Coast ports to handle more than 3 million barrels per day in new supplies expected over the next five years.

Of seven proposed oil-export projects, nowhere is the opportunity greater or the competition more fierce than in Corpus Christi, Texas, where three firms are vying to open the state's first deepwater port.

Commodities trader Trafigura has taken an early lead with a planned offshore facility that has an easier path to regulatory approval and faces fewer objections from environmentalists.

Its chief competitor - a partnership of investor Carlyle Group and the Port of Corpus Christi to build an onshore port - has responded by petitioning regulators to kill Trafigura's project. Port lobbyists have cited past criminal allegations involving the firm in other countries and potentially "catastrophic" environmental impacts.

Rising demand for new ports follows a 2015 decision by the US Congress to lift a 40-year ban on crude exports after advances in drilling techniques sparked a rapid rise in domestic shale production - especially in Texas. The United States had been the world's top oil buyer for decades, and its port infrastructure was built to import rather than export.

Now, surging exports threaten to overwhelm existing ports as US production is projected to hit 12 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from 9.35 million in 2017.

"We've got a wave of oil headed toward the coast," said Jeremiah Ashcroft III, chief executive of Lone Star Ports LLC, the Carlyle-backed company formed to develop its Corpus Christi project.

Only one US facility, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, can fully load supertankers capable of carrying 2 million barrels. The Corpus Christi port - the closest to the most prolific shale fields in Texas - exports less than 1 million bpd, and its harbor is too shallow to fully load supertankers.

The market ultimately may support more than one new deepwater port, but the first firm to build near Corpus Christi will have the best shot at cutting long-term deals with producers expected to ship an estimated 2.1 million bpd to the region through new pipelines set to open this year.

"Right now, there's only enough room for one project," Ashcroft said.

Carlyle plans a $1 billion port to handle 1.4 million bpd. Trafigura, which has not disclosed its planned investment in the port, would handle much less, at 500,000 bpd. But Trafigura's operation would siphon off revenue from the Port of Corpus Christi and Carlyle's project because Trafigura would serve shippers offshore, before they reach the harbor.

Carlyle declined to make an executive available for an interview and referred questions to Lone Star. Trafigura said in a statement that its port would leave room for other projects because it would handle only a portion of the expected new oil flows.

A third competitor, pipeline operator Magellan Midstream Partners LP, plans an export terminal on the Corpus Christi harbor, near Carlyle's proposed site.

But Magellan faces a roadblock because port officials last year agreed to work exclusively with Carlyle. Magellan said in a statement that it has not decided whether to build the project.

Companies including Kinder Morgan Inc, JupiterMLP and Tallgrass Energy have also proposed offshore ports along the Gulf Coast.

BRAZIL CHARGES

Carlyle said last October that it could open its facility by late 2020. But that assumes its plan for dredging to accommodate supertankers will not require a full environmental review, which is sought by opponents and could take two years.

As Carlyle and the Port have tried to navigate those obstacles, port lobbyists have petitioned regulators to halt Trafigura's project. In an August letter, the port's law firm called on the US Coast Guard and the Maritime Administration to reject Trafigura's application, citing a "criminal history."

The letter from Baker Wotring LLP pointed to the trader's 2006 guilty plea for selling a US company oil from Iraq that Trafigura falsely claimed had been authorized under a United Nations humanitarian aid program. US companies at the time were barred by government sanctions from buying Iraqi oil except through the program.

After the regulators declined the port's request, its law firm in December raised bribery allegations brought earlier that month by Brazilian prosecutors against two former Trafigura executives. The firm asked regulators to halt Trafigura's work until the allegations were "fully investigated."

Trafigura said in a statement that its management had no knowledge of any improper payments made to employees of Brazil's state-run oil firm Petrobras. Trafigura did not comment on the port law firm citing its guilty plea involving Iraq oil sales.

Last month, five Corpus Christi area lawmakers asked Texas Governor Greg Abbott to veto Trafigura's application on environmental grounds, citing a risk of "catastrophic crude oil spills" and "excessive air emissions."

Federal rules require state governors to sign off on offshore ports. Abbott has made no decision, a spokesman said.

Lone Star's Ashcroft said onshore terminals are safer than offshore projects because oil spills are more easily cleaned up in harbors than in open water. Trafigura said it chose to go offshore to ensure supertankers can safely and efficiently load cargoes and that its application will be reviewed by more than 30 government agencies.

BATTLE FATIGUE

Carlyle is essential to building the Port of Corpus Christi's crude export business. Port officials started pursuing federal approval to dredge its harbor 28 years ago, but Congress only recently approved $59 million, a fraction of what's needed.

"We don't have 28 years; we have two," said Sean Strawbridge, chief executive of the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, referring to its timeline for readying the port for new oil flows.

Port officials last year sought to kickstart the dredging by issuing $217 million in bonds. That money will allow it to start dredging to a 54-foot draft - not deep enough for supertankers.

If Trafigura's port wins approval, it could take business from the Port of Corpus Christi. Port revenues could fall by about 12 percent, estimated investment researcher Morningstar Inc., a loss that could hurt its efforts to finance dredging not covered by the government or Carlyle.

In October, Carlyle agreed to pay an undisclosed sum to cover the dredging needed to get achieve a 75-foot draft in the outer harbor to accommodate supertankers.

'ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER'

Environmentalists favor offshore ports over what they consider the harmful impact of dredging harbors.

The newly formed Port Aransas Conservancy in south Texas has argued Carlyle's plan would endanger sea turtle nesting areas, dump silt onto nearby islands, and threaten shellfish that reach estuaries through the ship channel.

Trafigura has countered environmental concerns about its offshore operation by proposing to tunnel under sand dunes and wetlands to install a pipeline instead of digging a trench through environmentally sensitive areas.

"Sea turtles are always an issue with dredging" because it brings in salt water, said Jayson Hudson, a regulatory supervisor at the US Army Corp of Engineers, which oversees permitting for Carlyle's project. He called Trafigura's horizontal drilling plan a "good option for avoiding permanent impacts."

Dredging the harbor, by contrast, would have wide-ranging impacts, said John Donovan, president of the Port Aransas Conservancy.

"We're very much against what we consider to be an environmental disaster that the Port's plans for Harbor Island would entail," he said.

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Source: Moneycontrol