Showing posts with label oil trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil trading. Show all posts

Saturday, 15 June 2019

With all eyes on Fed policy, G-20 meet, gold to shine; oil on the boil ahead of OPEC meet


A weak dollar, dovish Fed signals and safe-haven buying led to gold closing in the green for the second week. The yellow metal climbed above $1,350, a level that was last seen in April 2018. Weaker-than-forecast economic releases held the dollar down, favouring the yellow metal's price rise.

Filings for United States unemployment benefits increased, rising to a five-week high and adding to signs of potential cooling in the labour market. A closely-watched measure of US inflation, the core consumer price index, rose 2 percent from a year earlier, against a survey of a 2.1 percent increase.

In May, the US's $207.8-billion budget deficit was up from $146.8 billion in the corresponding month the year prior. Other data showed US import prices in May fell by the most in five months in the latest indication of subdued inflation pressure, adding to expectations that the Fed would cut rates this year.

Safe-haven-asset buying emerged as US President Donald Trump threatened to again raise tariffs on China if President Xi Jinping did not meet him at the forthcoming G-20 summit in Japan. President Trump said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent, or ‘much higher than 25 percent’ on Chinese goods worth $300 billion.

Crude oil experienced another negative week. Prices of crude rebounded as tanker attacks in the Gulf increased prices only slightly; they have already been hammered by the deepening trade war and swelling US stockpiles.

As per the US trade association API and Energy Information Administration (EIA), inventories for yet another week have risen.

The US blamed Iran for the attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on June 13, driving up oil prices and raising concerns about a new US-Iranian confrontation. Tehran bluntly denied the allegation.

In a monthly report, OPEC said that international trade tensions are hurting demand for oil, slashing its earlier estimates of consumption and predicting further challenges ahead. The Organization is due to meet in the coming weeks to set production levels for the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid A Al-Falih said he was confident that OPEC would extend output cuts into the second half of the year after holding talks with Russia.

Next week will be crucial for commodities. The US Empire State manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts and existing-home sales for May will be released. Hence, the greenback is likely to be choppy.

Next week, Central banks of the US, Japan and the UK will have their quarterly monetary-policy meetings to decide interest rates. The most important would be that of the Federal Reserve.

In the light of the weaker-than-forecast economic growth, the cooling labour market, rising unemployment benefits and the mounting budget deficit, calls for a rate cut has increased.

Dovish hints from the Fed have provided additional fuel to traders. The odds of the Fed’s dovish shock with a 25bp cut in rates next week are close to 33 percent, according to CME’s Fed Watch tool.

Meanwhile, China's commerce ministry said Beijing will not yield to any 'maximum pressure' from Washington, and attempts by the US to force China into accepting a trade deal would fail. Therefore, we expect more inflows into SPDR gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which would further support a rise in gold prices.

Great volatility is expected in crude oil ahead of OPEC’s meet in Vienna in the last week of June. Any unpredictable development in US-China trade relations may dampen the sentiment for oil.

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Friday, 1 March 2019

Today Crude Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in crude oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in crude oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Monday, 21 January 2019

Oil dips as China's economy slows but OPEC-led cuts support


Oil prices dipped on Monday as China reported its weakest annual economic growth in 28 years, although oil prices remain relatively well supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.57 per barrel at 0215 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $53.69 a barrel.

China's economy grew by 6.6 percent in 2018, its slowest expansion in 28 years and cooling from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017, official data showed on Monday. China's September-December 2018 growth was at 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The slowing growth in China, which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade, is stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

"The global outlook remains murky, despite emerging positives from a dovish Fed (now boosting US mortgage applications), faster China easing (China credit growth stabilizing) and a more durable US-China truce," US bank J.P. Morgan said in a note.

Despite this, analysts said supply cuts led by OPEC would likely support crude oil prices.

"Brent can remain above $60 per barrel on OPEC+ compliance, expiry of Iran waivers and slower US output growth," J.P. Morgan said.

It recommended investors should "stay long" crude oil.

Researchers at Bernstein Energy said the supply cuts led by OPEC "will move the market back into supply deficit" for most of 2019 and that "this should allow oil prices to rise to US $70 per barrel before year-end from current levels of US$60 per barrel."

In the United States, energy firms cut 21 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 18, taking the total count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly report on Friday.

It was biggest decline since February 2016, as drillers reacted to the 40 percent plunge in US crude prices late last year.

However, US crude oil production still rose by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, to a record 11.9 million bpd.

With the rig count stalling, last year's growth rate is unlikely to be repeated in 2019, although most analysts expect annual production to average well over 12 million bpd, making the United States the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Today Crude Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in crude oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in crude oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Oil prices edge up on supply cuts, but weakening economic outlook caps gains


Oil prices inched up on Tuesday amid supply cuts by producer club OPEC and Russia, although the darkening economic outlook capped gains.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $50.78 per barrel at 0041 GMT, up 27 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement.

International Brent crude oil futures had yet to trade.

"The impact of OPEC+ cuts, Iran sanctions and lower month-on-month growth in US production should help to support oil prices from current levels," US bank J.P. Morgan said in a note.

The Middle East dominated producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC allies, including Russia, agreed in late 2018 to cut supply to rein in a global glut.

Meanwhile, the United States last November re-imposed sanctions against Iran's oil exports. Although Washington granted sanctions waivers to Iran's biggest oil customers, mostly in Asia, the Middle Eastern country's exports have plummeted since.

However, Tuesday's slight oil price increases came after crude futures fell by more than 2 percent the previous session, dragged down by weak Chinese trade data which pointed to a global economic slowdown.

"Given the heightened macro risk anxiety, any support from supply-side correction could be limited," J.P. Morgan said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Monday, 14 January 2019

Crude oil futures decline on weak trend overseas


Crude oil futures dropped by Rs 15 to Rs 3,650 per barrel on January 14 as speculators off-loaded bets amid weak trend overseas.

Marketmen said trading sentiment was dampened in futures trade here after oil prices retreated in the global market due to ample stocks.
Besides, profit-booking by participants weighed, they added.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude for delivery in February was trading down by Rs 15, or 0.41 percent, to Rs 3,650 per barrel in 1,955 lots.

Crude for March delivery fell by Rs 28, or 0.75 percent, to Rs 3,695 per barrel in a volume of 77 lots.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil eased 1.45 percent to USD 50.84 a barrel while global benchmark Brent crude was down 1.29 percent at USD 59.70.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Friday, 11 January 2019

Today Crude Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in crude oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in crude oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable. 

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Source: Moneycontrol

Thursday, 10 January 2019

US oil export boom sparks a battle to build Texas ports


Booming US oil exports have set off a scramble to build Gulf Coast ports to handle more than 3 million barrels per day in new supplies expected over the next five years.

Of seven proposed oil-export projects, nowhere is the opportunity greater or the competition more fierce than in Corpus Christi, Texas, where three firms are vying to open the state's first deepwater port.

Commodities trader Trafigura has taken an early lead with a planned offshore facility that has an easier path to regulatory approval and faces fewer objections from environmentalists.

Its chief competitor - a partnership of investor Carlyle Group and the Port of Corpus Christi to build an onshore port - has responded by petitioning regulators to kill Trafigura's project. Port lobbyists have cited past criminal allegations involving the firm in other countries and potentially "catastrophic" environmental impacts.

Rising demand for new ports follows a 2015 decision by the US Congress to lift a 40-year ban on crude exports after advances in drilling techniques sparked a rapid rise in domestic shale production - especially in Texas. The United States had been the world's top oil buyer for decades, and its port infrastructure was built to import rather than export.

Now, surging exports threaten to overwhelm existing ports as US production is projected to hit 12 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from 9.35 million in 2017.

"We've got a wave of oil headed toward the coast," said Jeremiah Ashcroft III, chief executive of Lone Star Ports LLC, the Carlyle-backed company formed to develop its Corpus Christi project.

Only one US facility, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, can fully load supertankers capable of carrying 2 million barrels. The Corpus Christi port - the closest to the most prolific shale fields in Texas - exports less than 1 million bpd, and its harbor is too shallow to fully load supertankers.

The market ultimately may support more than one new deepwater port, but the first firm to build near Corpus Christi will have the best shot at cutting long-term deals with producers expected to ship an estimated 2.1 million bpd to the region through new pipelines set to open this year.

"Right now, there's only enough room for one project," Ashcroft said.

Carlyle plans a $1 billion port to handle 1.4 million bpd. Trafigura, which has not disclosed its planned investment in the port, would handle much less, at 500,000 bpd. But Trafigura's operation would siphon off revenue from the Port of Corpus Christi and Carlyle's project because Trafigura would serve shippers offshore, before they reach the harbor.

Carlyle declined to make an executive available for an interview and referred questions to Lone Star. Trafigura said in a statement that its port would leave room for other projects because it would handle only a portion of the expected new oil flows.

A third competitor, pipeline operator Magellan Midstream Partners LP, plans an export terminal on the Corpus Christi harbor, near Carlyle's proposed site.

But Magellan faces a roadblock because port officials last year agreed to work exclusively with Carlyle. Magellan said in a statement that it has not decided whether to build the project.

Companies including Kinder Morgan Inc, JupiterMLP and Tallgrass Energy have also proposed offshore ports along the Gulf Coast.

BRAZIL CHARGES

Carlyle said last October that it could open its facility by late 2020. But that assumes its plan for dredging to accommodate supertankers will not require a full environmental review, which is sought by opponents and could take two years.

As Carlyle and the Port have tried to navigate those obstacles, port lobbyists have petitioned regulators to halt Trafigura's project. In an August letter, the port's law firm called on the US Coast Guard and the Maritime Administration to reject Trafigura's application, citing a "criminal history."

The letter from Baker Wotring LLP pointed to the trader's 2006 guilty plea for selling a US company oil from Iraq that Trafigura falsely claimed had been authorized under a United Nations humanitarian aid program. US companies at the time were barred by government sanctions from buying Iraqi oil except through the program.

After the regulators declined the port's request, its law firm in December raised bribery allegations brought earlier that month by Brazilian prosecutors against two former Trafigura executives. The firm asked regulators to halt Trafigura's work until the allegations were "fully investigated."

Trafigura said in a statement that its management had no knowledge of any improper payments made to employees of Brazil's state-run oil firm Petrobras. Trafigura did not comment on the port law firm citing its guilty plea involving Iraq oil sales.

Last month, five Corpus Christi area lawmakers asked Texas Governor Greg Abbott to veto Trafigura's application on environmental grounds, citing a risk of "catastrophic crude oil spills" and "excessive air emissions."

Federal rules require state governors to sign off on offshore ports. Abbott has made no decision, a spokesman said.

Lone Star's Ashcroft said onshore terminals are safer than offshore projects because oil spills are more easily cleaned up in harbors than in open water. Trafigura said it chose to go offshore to ensure supertankers can safely and efficiently load cargoes and that its application will be reviewed by more than 30 government agencies.

BATTLE FATIGUE

Carlyle is essential to building the Port of Corpus Christi's crude export business. Port officials started pursuing federal approval to dredge its harbor 28 years ago, but Congress only recently approved $59 million, a fraction of what's needed.

"We don't have 28 years; we have two," said Sean Strawbridge, chief executive of the Port of Corpus Christi Authority, referring to its timeline for readying the port for new oil flows.

Port officials last year sought to kickstart the dredging by issuing $217 million in bonds. That money will allow it to start dredging to a 54-foot draft - not deep enough for supertankers.

If Trafigura's port wins approval, it could take business from the Port of Corpus Christi. Port revenues could fall by about 12 percent, estimated investment researcher Morningstar Inc., a loss that could hurt its efforts to finance dredging not covered by the government or Carlyle.

In October, Carlyle agreed to pay an undisclosed sum to cover the dredging needed to get achieve a 75-foot draft in the outer harbor to accommodate supertankers.

'ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER'

Environmentalists favor offshore ports over what they consider the harmful impact of dredging harbors.

The newly formed Port Aransas Conservancy in south Texas has argued Carlyle's plan would endanger sea turtle nesting areas, dump silt onto nearby islands, and threaten shellfish that reach estuaries through the ship channel.

Trafigura has countered environmental concerns about its offshore operation by proposing to tunnel under sand dunes and wetlands to install a pipeline instead of digging a trench through environmentally sensitive areas.

"Sea turtles are always an issue with dredging" because it brings in salt water, said Jayson Hudson, a regulatory supervisor at the US Army Corp of Engineers, which oversees permitting for Carlyle's project. He called Trafigura's horizontal drilling plan a "good option for avoiding permanent impacts."

Dredging the harbor, by contrast, would have wide-ranging impacts, said John Donovan, president of the Port Aransas Conservancy.

"We're very much against what we consider to be an environmental disaster that the Port's plans for Harbor Island would entail," he said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Crude Palm oil prices to trade sideways to higher: Angel Commodities


MCX CPO edged higher on Wednesday tracking firm Malaysian palm oil and soy oil prices in India. India has cut import taxes on crude and refined palm oil from Southeast Asian (ASEAN) countries after a request from suppliers. The government increased tariff price of crude palm oil by $ 31 to $ 503 per tn and $21 per ton for refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil for the first half of January . According to SEA monthly update, palm oil imports were down by 3.6% at 6.91 lakh tonnes. There are reports of sufficient stock levels in the country and expectation of cheaper imports from Malaysia due to zero duty.

Outlook

CPO futures may trade sideways to higher due to higher tariff value tariff value and improving physical demand from the stockists.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

US oil prices rise above $50 on trade talk hopes


US crude oil prices on Wednesday rose above $50 per barrel for the first time in 2019 on hopes that Washington and Beijing can resolve a trade dispute that has triggered a global economic slowdown.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $50.14 per barrel as at 0021, up 36 cents, or 0.7 percent from their last settlement.

International Brent crude futures had yet to trade.

"The mood was ... boosted by signs of further progress in trade talks between the US and China," ANZ bank said on Wednesday.

The world's two biggest economies will continue trade talks in Beijing for an unscheduled third day on Wednesday, US officials said, amid signs of progress on issues including purchases of US farm and energy commodities and increased US access to China's markets.

State newspaper China Daily said on Wednesday that Beijing is keen to put an end to its trade dispute with the United States, but that it will not make any "unreasonable concessions" and that any agreement must involve compromise on both sides.

If no deal is reached by March 2, Trump has said he will proceed with raising tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at a time when China's economy is slowing significantly.

Oil prices have also been receiving support from supply cuts started at the end of 2018 by a group of producers around the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as non-OPEC member Russia.

"Crude oil prices continued to march higher, with investors becoming increasingly confident that the OPEC cuts would tighten the market," ANZ said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tuesday, 8 January 2019

Oil prices rise on trade talk optimism, OPEC cuts


Oil prices rose on Tuesday on hopes that US-Chinese talks in Beijing would bring a halt to trade disputes between the world's biggest economies, while OPEC-led supply cuts tightened markets.

International Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel at 0113 GMT, up 44 cents, or 0.8 percent from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.85 per barrel, up 33 cents, or 0.7 percent.

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said late on Monday that Beijing and Washington could reach a trade deal that "we can live with" as dozens of officials from the world's two largest economies held talks in a bid to end their trade dispute that has roiled global markets since last year.

Asian stock markets rose as investors hope Washington and Beijing will reach some sort of agreement.

Despite optimism around the talks in Beijing, some analysts warned that the relationship between Washington and Beijing remained on shaky grounds, and that tensions could flare up again soon.

"We remain concerned about the world's most important bilateral relationship," political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in its 2019 outlook.

"The US political establishment believes engagement with Beijing is no longer working, and it's embracing an openly confrontational approach ... (and) rising nationalist sentiment makes it unlikely that Beijing will ignore US provocations," Eurasia Group said.

Beyond politics, oil markets are being supported by supply cuts started late last year by a group of producers around the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as non-OPEC member Russia.

"Crude oil prices have benefited from OPEC production cuts and steadying equities markets," said Mithun Fernando, investment analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities.

Looming over the OPEC-led cuts, however, is a surge in US oil supply, driven by a steep rise in onshore shale oil drilling and production.

As a result, US crude oil production rose by a whopping 2 million barrels per day (bpd) last year to a world record 11.7 million bpd.

With drilling activity still high, most analysts expect US oil production to rise further this year.

Consultancy JBC Energy said it was likely that US crude oil production was already "significantly above 12 million bpd" by early January.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Monday, 7 January 2019

Oil rises on trade talks and supply cuts, but economic slowdown looms


Oil prices rose by more than 1 percent on Monday, lifted by optimism that talks could soon resolve the trade war between the United States and China, while supply cuts by major producers also supported the market.

Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel at 0227 GMT, up 71 cents, or 1.2 percent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.65 per barrel, up 69 cents, or 1.4 percent.

Financial markets were riding a relief rally on Monday on expectations that face-to-face trade negotiations between delegates from Washington and Beijing, due to start on Monday, would lead to an easing in tensions between the two biggest economies in the world.

The United States and Beijing have been locked in an escalating trade spat since early 2018, raising import tariffs on each other's goods. The dispute has weighed on economic growth.

"The start of 2019 brings an even greater sense of downside risk around our global growth forecast...(and) the 3 percent global growth pace we have been anticipating for the next two quarters looks increasingly challenging," US bank J.P. Morgan said in a note late last week.

In a separate note, the bank said "bond and commodity markets appear to be pricing in on average close to a 60 percent chance of a US recession over the coming year compared to a 40 percent chance by our economists and 27 percent chance by the consensus."

Despite the likelihood of a slowdown, crude future prices were being supported by supply cuts started late last year by a group of producers around the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as non-OPEC Russia.

"OPEC's new production cuts have taken effect from the start of the year and market surveys of OPEC output show that major producers got started early," said Emirates NBD bank in a note released on Sunday.

OPEC oil supply fell in December by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd), to 32.68 million bpd, a Reuters survey found last week, led by cuts from top exporter Saudi Arabia.

But not all factors are pointing to higher prices.

In the United States, crude oil production stayed at a record 11.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the last week of 2018, according to weekly data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Friday.

That makes the United States the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Record output is also swelling US fuel stockpiles.

Crude oil inventories rose by 7,000 barrels in the week ending Dec. 28, to 441.42 million barrels.

Distillate and gasoline stocks, however, rose by a whopping 9.5 million and 6.9 million barrels, to 119.9 million and 240 million barrels respectively, the EIA data showed.

"The US supply glut remains a bearish concern," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage Oanda in Singapore.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Friday, 4 January 2019

Today Crude Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx crude oil short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in crude oil. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in crude oil is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Oil slips on economic downturn fears, but OPEC cuts offer support


Oil prices fell on Friday after the United States showed signs of following Asia into an economic slowdown, although supply cuts by producer club OPEC kept declines in check.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $46.71 per barrel at 0117 GMT, down 35 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement.

International Brent crude futures were down 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $55.57 a barrel.

Data for December from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed the broadest US slowdown in growth for more than a decade, as the trade conflict with China, falling equity prices and increasing uncertainty started to take a toll on the world's biggest economy.

Despite this, traders said oil prices are expected to receive some support as supply cuts announced late last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) start to kick in.

OPEC oil supply fell by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November and December, to 32.68 million bpd, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an early start to a supply-limiting accord, while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines.

OPEC, Russia and other non-members - an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed last December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 versus October 2018 levels. OPEC's share of that cut is 800,000 bpd.

"If OPEC is faithful to its agreed output cut together with non-OPEC partners, it would take 3-4 months to mop up the excess inventories," energy consultancy FGE said.

Considering the planned cuts versus ongoing increases in US crude production, which hit a record 11.7 million bpd by late 2018, FGE said it expected Brent prices to range between $55-$60 per barrel in the first months of 2019.

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Source: Moneycontrol