Place long bets on Nifty if it crosses 11,900: Kotak Securities

April series saw Nifty conquering the previous peak of 11,760 on a closing basis while registering an intraday all-time high of 11,856. However, throughout the month the price activity in the market was typically consolidative in nature. The broader market momentum was missing that led to some selling pressure pushing the index down towards 11,550. Leading sectors included banking, financial services and IT while metals and auto stocks have failed to give a medium-term breakout.

India VIX, which generally ranges between 12-18, is currently seen at around 23, which is relatively higher. A high VIX indicates higher volatility anticipated by market participants over the next few weeks.

During the 2014 election period, India VIX made a high of 39.30 while during 2009 the same was seen at 87. Owing to the face that the election outcome will have a significant impact on the markets, an elevated VIX is normal phenomena and not much should be read into the same.

The month of May is expected to remain highly volatile which is reflected in the elevated numbers of the volatility index. For Nifty, 11,890 is expected to act as stiff resistance for the short term. Unless the same is crossed, selling pressure cannot be ruled out. The immediate support is seen at 11,550, which is the last swing low. A breach below the same can intensify the sell-off and the market may plummet towards the March range breakout area of 11,100-11,000. For the index to continue its present upwards journey, a decisive breach above 11,900 along with broader market participation would be required.

However, from a slightly longer-term perspective, the larger setup for the market remains positive. Investors should remain invested and use any meaningful correction to accumulate quality frontline and select midcap stocks.

We believe that Nifty has formed a major base at 10,000 and going ahead it should scale to 13,000-13,500.

For traders, a 5-6 percent fall would provide a good buying opportunity. We would advise going aggressively long at around 11,200-11,100 or if the index crosses 11,900 mark. We would place the initial target at 12,400.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tata Motors jumps 6% on expectations of improved financial results in Q4

Tata Motors shares rallied 5.6 percent in the morning trade on April 1 after the company said it expects improved financial results in March quarter.

The stock was one of the worst performers in last one year, falling 46 percent on JLR concerns. It was quoting at Rs 183.45, up Rs 9.15, or 5.25 percent on the BSE, at 0948 hours IST.

After disappointed by S&P's decision to downgrade Jaguar Land Rover, Tata Motors, on March 29, reaffirmed that it expects improved financial results in the fourth quarter period to March 31, 2019, compared to the first nine months of the financial year.

It also expects significant positive cashflow in the fourth quarter.

Jaguar Land Rover is continuing to execute its product plans and project charge turnaround strategy to deliver 2.5 billion pound of cashflow improvements by March 2020, Tata Motors said.

On March 28, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the credit rating of Tata Motors and its wholly-owned subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).

The rating agency cited weakness in profitability of JLR as the main reason for downgrading credit rating of Tata Motors and its British arm.

S&P cut its rating on senior unsecured notes of JLR and Tata Motors to 'B+' from 'BB-'.

In addition, the Tata Group firm, on March 29, sold its shareholding in TAL to TASL at an enterprise value of Rs 625 crore for the aerospace business and acquired the non-aerospace business from TAL at a value of Rs 10 lakh.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Strides Pharma climbs 4% after Macquarie upgrades, increases target

Strides Pharma Science shares rallied more than 4 percent in the morning trade on March 27 after Macquarie upgraded the stock to outperform from neutral, citing likely strong earnings growth in the next financial year.

The global investment firm also raised its price target to Rs 532 from Rs 486 apiece after increasing FY20/21 EPS estimates by 3 percent.

The stock was quoting at Rs 459.30, up Rs 14.20, or 3.19 percent on the BSE, at 1006 hours IST.

At 14x FY20 PER, concerns are fairly captured, the research house feels.

Macquarie expects the US market to be a key margin driver for the company and expects a sharp recovery in EBITDA to profit after tax translation from FY20.

It further expects US margin to expand from 11 percent in Q3FY19 to 18 percent in FY20 and sees strong visibility in other regulated markets.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Glenmark Pharma rises nearly 2% on USFDA approval

Shares of Glenmark Pharma rose nearly 2 percent intraday Friday after it received final approval from USFDA for Clindamycin and Benzoyl Peroxide Gel.

According to company release on BSE, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Inc., USA has been granted final approval by the United States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for Clindamycin and Benzoyl Peroxide Gel, 1%|5%, a generic version of BenzaClin Gel, 1%|5%, of Valeant Bermuda.

The BenzaClin Gel, 1% | 5% market achieved annual sales of approximately USD 99.4 million, as per IQVIATM sales data for the 12 month period ending January 2019.

Company's current portfolio consists of 151 products authorized for distribution in the US marketplace and 53 ANDA’s pending approval with the USFDA.

In addition to these internal filings, Glenmark continues to identify and explore external development partnerships to supplement and accelerate the growth of its existing pipeline and portfolio, it added.

At 09:40 hrs Glenmark Pharma was quoting at Rs 641.10, up Rs 10.70, or 1.70 percent on the BSE.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tata Motors falls 2% on JLR vehicle recall

Tata Motors shares fell 2 percent in morning on Thursday after subsidiary JLR recalled some cars due to excessive CO2 emissions.

The stock was quoting at Rs 179.10, down Rs 2.50, or 1.38 percent, on the BSE at 09:26 hours IST.

UK-based luxury car maker Jaguar Land Rover recalled 44,000 cares due to excessive carbon dioxide emissions, reported CNBC-TV18. The report said JLR's 10 models may be emitting more carbon dioxide than certified. Cars manufactured between 2016  and 2019 were recalled.

Meanwhile, JLR's retail sales in February 2019 fell 4.1 percent to 38,288 vehicles YoY, dented by weak customer demand in China.

Retail sales were up significantly in North America (25.4 percent) and UK (11.3 percent) while Europe posted modestly higher growth of 1.1 percent in sales during February.

However, weaker market conditions continued to weigh on sales in China, which posted a decline 47.6 percent YoY, JLR said.

Jaguar retail sales in February increased 5.8 percent year-on-year to 12,235 vehicles, but Land Rover sales dropped 8.1 percent to 26,053 vehicles in February

JLR, which contributed highest in revenue of Tata Motors, has been hitting hard on the stock front as well, which fell 49 percent in last one year.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Tata Motors revises margin guidance downwards to 3-6% from 4-7%; stock sinks 16%

Uncertainty over China and with the possibility of a hard Brexit looming large, Tata Motors on February 7 said it is revising its pre-tax margin guidance to 3-6 percent in FY20 from 4-7 percent announced six months back.

The Mumbai-headquartered company reported a consolidated loss of Rs 26,961 crore for Q3 FY19, the biggest in its history. While non-cash asset impairment of Rs 27,838 crore was taken during the quarter under review, a severe slowdown in China impacted margin.

Read | Tata Motors posts a disappointing set of Q3 FY19 earnings; avoid

PB Balaji, CFO, Tata Motors, said, “The 4-7 percent guidance was for the period between FY20 and FY22. That is something that we have now calibrated to 3-6 percent. If the markets pick-up, we will revise it upwards.” For the period post FY22, the management has given an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) guidance of 7-9 percent.

For the quarter, Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) reported a negative EBIT of 2.6 percent, which was 520 basis point (100 bps= 1 percentage point) lower than the same period last year. Lower China sales, production shutdown, higher depreciation and amortisation affected the company.

N Chandrasekaran, Chairman, Tata Motors said, “For JLR, market conditions continue to be challenging, particularly in China. The company has taken decisive steps to step up competitiveness, reduce costs and improve cash flows, while continuing to invest in exciting products and leading edge technologies. With these interventions, we are building Tata Motors to deliver strong results in the medium term.”

China is one of the largest markets for the company’s luxury brands: Jaguar and Land Rover. While JLR’s rivals such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi may be offering higher discounts in China, the marque British brands are aiming for reduced discounting, better dealer profitability and profits at the joint venture level.

The luxury car market was down 15 percent year-on-year in China. However, the same for JLR was down 47 percent to 22,000 units. About 36 percent of JLR dealers in China are less than three years into the business, so they are yet to break-even.

Retails in UK were up 18 percent as against an industry-wide drop of 3.8 percent. The US remained the largest market for the two brands, with retail sales of nearly 40,000 units, a growth of 21 percent in January.

Read: No deal Brexit will force 3-weeks JLR plant shutdown in April, profitability to be hit: Tata Motors

“Instead of trying to push vehicles into the Chinese market and go for wholesales, we are adopting a push strategy wherein we are focusing on retail demand and thereby aim for profitability,” Balaji explained.

The stock is currently trading (09:22 am) at 15.83 percent lower at Rs 153.95 on the BSE.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Kotak Securities expects next 3-4 months to be challenging, highly volatile

On the eve of an election year where populism taking over development agenda was a worry, the government presented an interim budget. While the undertone has been a balance between populism and a focus on consumption, it provided a feel-good factor to various sections of the population (farmers, middle class & poor) but with a slight slippage in the fiscal deficit.

On budget financials, the government has built in 10.2 percent & 11.5 percent growth in nominal GDP for FY19E (estimated) & FY20E, respectively. The nominal GDP growth of 11.5 percent budgeted for FY20 seems to be on the higher side. Direct tax & indirect tax collection is expected to rise by 19.7 percent & 14.4 percent in FY19RE (revised estimates) and by 15 percent & 11.8 percent in FY20BE (budgeted estimates), respectively. GST collection target for FY19 has been cut by Rs.one lakh crore and on the RE the government is building in 18.2 percent growth for FY20. Total Expenditure to grow by 14.7 percent in FY19RE and 13.3 percent in FY20BE. The lower expenditure growth in FY20E is on the back of 14.4 percent growth in revenue expenditure and only 6.2 percent growth in capital expenditure.

The gross GSec borrowing has been budgeted at Rs.7.1 lakh crore compared to Rs.5.7 lakh crore in FY19RE, implying higher average weekly issuances of Rs.158 bn compared to Rs.127 bn in FY19. Higher gross borrowing and concerns on the credibility of the revenue assumptions have pushed yields higher. With the government’s adoption of an expansionary fiscal stance and concerns on the elevated core inflation, the probability of monetary accommodation could reduce in the near term.

However, the seemingly structurally benign food inflation along with softening growth should provide space for the MPC to shift the policy stance to neutral. We expect the RBI to cut rates in the forthcoming policy meetings.

However, after some time, receding expectations of a rate cut, heavy GSec supply and a likely reduced pace of OMO purchases in FY20 (around Rs 1 lakh crore vs Rs 3.1 lakh crore in FY29E) will weigh on the bond markets. Benign global conditions, muted oil prices, and relatively more dovish global central banks could cap the sharp downside to bonds. Bond yields need to be in a range of 7-7.5 percent to provide comfort to equity valuations. After budget and going forward after elections market participants will focus on earnings.

Market Outlook: We see the next three-four months very challenging and filled with volatility for Indian markets (i.e. until the final outcome of Lok Sabha elections). Expect Nifty to be range bound till election outcome and then see a directional move on either side after the election results. Post interim budget we see pressure on bond markets to persist as the Gross GSec borrowing of Rs 7.1 lakh crore for FY20BE is quite high as compared to Rs.5.7 lakh crore of FY19RE. Any rise in bond yields could impact equity valuations and equity performance.

Q3FY19 results of Nifty companies are ahead of expectations and provide comfort to FY20E earnings forecast. Top-down market valuations look reasonable with Nifty trading at 16.3x FY20E and 14.1x FY21E. However, there is a wide dispersion in valuation across ‘quality’ stocks and ‘value’ stocks, which renders the top-down valuation view less meaningful. Till the election outcome ‘quality’ stocks will rule but investors may not want to buy them as they are too expensive in terms of valuations. On the other hand, ‘value’ stocks are very cheap but investors may stay away from them as they are not performing and the situation could remain similar till the election outcome.

Portfolio strategy: Expect defensive sectors to continue their outperformance until the election results. FMCG & consumption-related stocks along with Information Technology and few agriculture/rural plays will continue to draw investor interest. Apart from this, the theme of hardcore corporate banks is also playing out and could remain so in the course of the year. We also prefer the capital goods sector driven by base orders, pace of execution and low base

Valuation of mid-cap Index has gone down below that of Nifty but this space is not attracting any investment as of now and the situation could continue to be alike till the outcome of the election result. Hence, it is ideal to focus on good quality large caps for the next three-four months and change stance post-election based on result outcome. If the view is 2-3 years then select high earnings growth mid-caps, with sound management could be accumulated.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Aurobindo Pharma Q3 preview: Profit may get a boost; outlook on US business key

Brokerages expect profit of around Rs 650 crore for Aurobindo Pharma, as low tax rate could boost numbers. But one must focus on US business growth and upcoming product announcements, analysts said.

The company will declare its results on February 7, 2019.

Brokerage: ICICI Securities | Profit: Rs 669 crore

Revenues are expected to grow ~16 percent YoY to Rs 5,022 crore mainly due to 33 percent growth in the US led by new launches and currency tailwinds. Strong growth in the US could be partly offset by an expected 30 percent decline in the antiretroviral (ARV) business. EBITDA margins are likely to decline 263 bps to 21 percent due to a change in the product mix. Net profit may grow 14 percent YoY to Rs 669 crore due to a lower tax rate (25 percent vs 34 percent in Q3FY18)

Brokerage: Edelweiss | Profit: Rs 665.6 crore

The brokerage expects US sales (USD 325 million) to grow 2 percent QoQ on the launch of gAngiomax and gZythromax, market share gains in ertapenem, and new orders as existing players exit the markets. Expect Europe to remain flat in cc and to be aided by 8 percent EUR appreciation. We expect EBITDA margin to rebound to ~23-24 percent range.

Brokerage: Motilal Oswal | Profit: Rs 640 crore

We expect Aurobindo (ARBP) to post healthy growth of ~10 percent YoY to Rs 4,760 crore in 3QFY19. Growth will be supported by the formulation business (~83 percent of sales).

Europe and rest-of-the-world (RoW) sales are expected to grow 8 percent YoY, while active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) sales are estimated to grow by ~6percent YoY.

Brokerage: Reliance Securities | Profit: Rs 640 crore

Revenue is expected to grow by 10.2 percent YoY led by US business, which further led by recent launches including Ertapenem, the ramp-up in existing products and favourable currency. The EBITDA margin is seen to stabilise at 21.4percent (vs. 21.6percent in 2QFY19) owing to healthy US business.

However, EBITDA margin is likely to contract on YoY basis due to a high base in 3QFY18 (Renvela) and higher raw material cost.

Factors to watch out: Outlook on the US business and new launches; Update on debt repayment; and Outlook on the recent acquisition of part of Sandoz US business.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Cipla Q3 preview: Brokerages say firm facing global challenges; muted performance likely

Brokerages believe that a subdued performance is on cards for Cipla in December quarter. They believe that challenges in South Africa and other emerging markets could weigh.

Here is a gist of what brokerages feel about the upcoming results.

Brokerage: Edelweiss | Profit: Rs 385.3 crore

The brokerage house sees US revenue (USD 115 million) growing 6% QoQ on launch of gAlbenza and gToprol XL. India business is expected to grow 10% YoY, while SAGA will likely grow 10% YoY on 7% YoY ZAR appreciation.

“Key thing to watch out is how Cipla fares in new tenders of ARV and other products in South Africa. Iran and Yemen business will be hit by US sanctions this quarter. EBITDA margins will likely remain in the 17-18% range,” analysts at the firm wrote.

Brokerage: Reliance Securities | Profit: Rs 345.2 crore

The research firm expects muted performance in 3QFY19 led by business challenges in South Africa and other emerging markets. Its US business is seen at $ 105 million versus $ 100 million in 3QFY18 led by ramp-up in recent niche launches. Domestic business is expected to grow by 1.2% YoY on high YoY base.

EBITDA margin is likely to contract by 325 bps YoY to 17.7% due to high material cost and muted sales growth in domestic business.

Factors to watch out:

Update on combination inhaler launch in the UK; outlook on US/India business

Brokerage: Motilal Oswal | Profit: Rs 400 crore

It expects Cipla’s revenue to grow 9% YoY to Rs 4250 crore in 3QFY19.

Absolute EBITDA is expected to decline marginally by ~4% YoY to INR7.9b.

“We remain positive on the company’s improved traction in the US business through own front-end (unclear), and outperformance in the domestic business. However, we maintain

Key issues to watch out for

Outlook on traction in complex ANDAs launched in the US market

Outlook on institutional business

Number of product launches in domestic formulation segmen

Brokerage: Emkay | Profit: Rs 337.5 crore

Expect a lackluster quarter for Cipla, due to the headwinds in sub-Saharan Africa and the Global Access business.

We assume overall revenues and EBITDA to stand at Rs38.7bn and Rs7.0bn, respectively. We project US revenues of USD115mn, up ~15% yoy (up 6% qoq) on new launches like gToprol XL, gAlbenza and gLotrel.

Exports business could benefit from the appreciation in the USD/EUR vs. INR. The key thing to watch for will be the outlook on the tender business and performance in other geographies.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Lupin to announce Q3 earnings today; here's what analysts are expecting

Lupin is likely to report a subdued show for the December quarter results as lack of new launches and pricing pressure could impact its financials.

Here is a gist of what brokerages think about the results.

Brokerage: Edelweiss | Profit: Rs 281.8 crore

The brokerage expects US sales (~USD 180 million) to grow 8% sequentially as launch of gBeyaz and gTemovate, coupled with full quarter of Solosec and Tobi, will likely offset erosion ingNamenda.

Further, it sees domestic business to grow 8% YoY on a base made unfavourable by GST-related restocking, while APAC sales to be assisted by a 6% JPY tailwind. EBITDA margins expected to grow by 130bps QoQ, to ~15%, led by rupee depreciation

Brokerage: Reliance Securities | Profit: Rs 253.4 crore

Reliance Securities expects muted growth in sales during the quarter. With continued pricing pressure on its key molecules (gGlumetza, gFortamet and gMethergine) and lack of key launches, its US business is expected to report weak growth. India business is expected to report healthy growth of 12.3%.

EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 100 bps YoY to 16.3% due to weak US sales and higher raw material cost from China.

Factors to watch out for: Outlook on Gavis business/new launches, outlook on India/US and Japan business, and update on the USFDA warning letter Goa and Pithampur Unit-2.

Brokerage: Motilal Oswal | Profit: Rs 247.6 crore

Motilal Oswal expects Lupin to report growth of 5% YoY in its Q3FY19 revenue at Rs 4,180 crore primarily due to ~9% YoY decline in the US business (~32% of total sales).

EBITDA is expected to decline 6% YoY during the quarter to Rs 630 crore, with EBITDA margin declining ~180bp YoY to 15.5%, primarily due to lower gross margin and higher other operating expenses.

Key issues to watch out for

- Update on traction in Solosec brand for the US market

- Update on warning letter for Goa and Indore facility

- Outlook on inorganic growth initiatives

Brokerage: Emkay | Profit: Rs 241.7 crore

Q3FY19 could be muted quarter for Lupin given the drought of high-value launches within the US geography. A few new launches (like gMepron, gDacogen and gRapaflo) will offset the pricing pressure in the base portfolio.

Key things to look for would be commentary on the progress of remediation for Goa and Indore facilities and product pipeline.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Lupin falls 2% as USFDA after inspection issues 6 observations to Pithampur unit

Lupin shares declined 2 percent in morning on Monday after the company's received six observations for Pithampur unit from the US health regulator.

The pharma major, on January 26, announced the completion of the United States Food and Drug Administration inspection carried out at its Pithampur unit -2 (Indore) facility.

The inspection was carried out between January 14 and January 25, 2019.

"The inspection at PithampurUnit-2 (Indore) closed with 6 observations," Lupin said, adding it is confident of addressing the observations satisfactorily.

At 09:48 hours IST, the stock was quoting at Rs 853.75, down Rs 9.25, or 1.07 percent on the BSE.

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Source: Moneycontrol

China December aluminium production surges to record monthly high

China's primary aluminium output defied low prices to rise for a second straight month to a record high in December as falling alumina costs boosted margins, while 2018 annual output was also a record, official data showed on Monday.

The world's top producer churned out more than 3 million tonnes in a month for the first time, undeterred by aluminium prices at two-year lows, the impact of the US-China trade war and Beijing's environmental crackdown.

Production was likely spurred by new smelter openings late last year and higher utilisation rates following a plunge in the cost of raw material alumina, said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities.

On a daily basis, China produced almost 98,400 tonnes of aluminium last month, up from 94,000 tonnes in November and also a record high, according to Reuters calculations. December had one more day than November.

Full-year output came in at 35.8 million tonnes in 2018, up 7.4 percent from the previous annual record in 2017.

China added 3.8 million tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity in 2018, according to consultancy AZ China, while about 2.8 million tonnes was shut due to a slump in aluminium prices.

Winter restrictions on output to curb pollution were also less severe than expected.

Shanghai aluminium prices slumped a hefty 14 percent over 2018 to below 14,000 yuan ($2,063) a tonne amid plentiful supply and worries over the impact of the Sino-US trade war on demand.

"Even though at the current (aluminium) price you may say smelters are not making money, as long as they break even they will continue to produce," said Lau, who expects another 5 percent increase in China's output in 2019.

"Those newly commissioned smelters have to start operating to pay back their loans. They have to generate enough cash flow to do that."

Alumina prices, which soared from March last year on an outage at Norsk Hydro's Alunorte plant, fell almost 30 percent in the fourth quarter, easing the pressure on smelters.

Meanwhile, output of 10 nonferrous metals - including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel - came in at a record 5.08 million tonnes in December, up 7.8 percent from November and up 10 percent year-on-year.

Full-year output was up 6 percent at 56.88 million tonnes, also a record high. The other metals in the group are tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium and titanium.

Output hit 3.05 million tonnes in December, National Bureau of Statistics data showed, up 8.2 percent from November and up 11.3 percent from December 2017.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil dips as China's economy slows but OPEC-led cuts support

Oil prices dipped on Monday as China reported its weakest annual economic growth in 28 years, although oil prices remain relatively well supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.57 per barrel at 0215 GMT, down 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $53.69 a barrel.

China's economy grew by 6.6 percent in 2018, its slowest expansion in 28 years and cooling from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017, official data showed on Monday. China's September-December 2018 growth was at 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The slowing growth in China, which has generated nearly a third of global growth in the past decade, is stoking worries about risks to the world economy and are weighing on profits for firms ranging from Apple to big carmakers.

"The global outlook remains murky, despite emerging positives from a dovish Fed (now boosting US mortgage applications), faster China easing (China credit growth stabilizing) and a more durable US-China truce," US bank J.P. Morgan said in a note.

Despite this, analysts said supply cuts led by OPEC would likely support crude oil prices.

"Brent can remain above $60 per barrel on OPEC+ compliance, expiry of Iran waivers and slower US output growth," J.P. Morgan said.

It recommended investors should "stay long" crude oil.

Researchers at Bernstein Energy said the supply cuts led by OPEC "will move the market back into supply deficit" for most of 2019 and that "this should allow oil prices to rise to US $70 per barrel before year-end from current levels of US$60 per barrel."

In the United States, energy firms cut 21 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 18, taking the total count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly report on Friday.

It was biggest decline since February 2016, as drillers reacted to the 40 percent plunge in US crude prices late last year.

However, US crude oil production still rose by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, to a record 11.9 million bpd.

With the rig count stalling, last year's growth rate is unlikely to be repeated in 2019, although most analysts expect annual production to average well over 12 million bpd, making the United States the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Nickel Updates Trading Rules

Buy Signal: When all the mcx nickel short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx nickel short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in nickel. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in nickel is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.

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Source: Moneycontrol