Thursday, 15 November 2018

Market to see stability in Nov, time to accumulate quality stocks like HDFC Bank: Anand Rathi


Fall in crude prices by more than 20% has been a huge relief to the Indian equity markets. This will help the market stabalise and address a lot of macro-economic concerns directly and indirectly — like inflation, interest rates and  current account deficit, among others.

The retail inflation data has been encouraging at 3.31% which is way lower than the RBI’s medium-term target. This will give RBI room to hold interest rates.

The 10-Year bond yields have also softened from the high’s of about 8.20% few months ago to 7.75% giving some relief to the banking/NBFC sector.

We expect the Indian equity markets to stabilise in November till the state election results are out in early December.

Investors can accumulate quality stocks like –

HDFC Bank | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 2,420

HDFC Bank reported steady Q2FY19 operational performance. NIM expanded ~10 bps QoQ and was flat YoY at 4.3%. Core fee income growth at 26% YoY continued to remain strong deriving strength from retail fees including cards, third-party insurance, other retail and cash management.

Bank has continued to gain market share in key businesses led by digital sourcing and deeper penetration improving product delivery and cost control which has led the bank to reach historic low C/I of 39.9% in Q2FY19.

HDFC Bank has raised Rs240bn of fresh equity in H1FY19, which will support its loan growth in the coming years.

Further, we expect HDFC Bank to be a major gainer of the current crisis in the NBFC space as it has best-in-class liability franchises along with superior customer outreach across business segments.

Asian Paints | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 1,471

The company has to its credit a leadership position in its market, proven track record of adapting to changes in market conditions, a professional management, history of innovative strategies in marketing, efficient manufacturing and logistics in place and prudent financial management.

In its latest financial results, APNT has reported a growth of 8.8% in revenues at ₹46,391 million in Q2-FY19 as against ₹42,652 million in Q2-FY18.

In terms of growth, we continue to expect Indian paints industry to grow at around 8%-12% in next few years and demand factors remain strong in terms of growth.

Aarti Industries | Rating: Buy | Target: Rs 1,600

One of the global leaders in benzene-based chemistry through its process chemistry and scale-up engineering competencies, Aarti Industries’ revenue and profit are expected to grow at 20% and 22% CAGRs over FY18-21, driven by scale-ups in its specialty chemical and pharmaceutical businesses and the new toluene capacity.

For Q2 FY19, Aarti’s revenue shot up 46.4% y/y to Rs. 1290 Cr, chiefly due to strong volume growth and the increasing share of high-value products.

The specialty chemicals, pharmaceuticals and home- and personal-care divisions brought respectively 80.0%, 14.8% and 5.2% to revenue. The good performance and higher capacity utilisation boosted the EBIDTA margin 58bps y/y to 18.6%. Thus, due to the good operational performance, PAT swelled 56.6% y/y to Rs. 120 Cr.

Its capex of ~Rs. 1700 Cr in the next three years, strong operating performance of all divisions, focus on R&D and strong relationships with clients would shift growth to a higher trajectory in future.

We maintain our Buy rating, with a target price of `1,600 a share. At this price, the stock is valued at a PE of 31x FY19e and 21x FY21e.

It is too crucial that you put in and take out money from the stock on the right time. We at the ripples advisory help you in doing this with our Intraday tips.


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Source: Equitypandit

Market To Consolidate Until It Closes Out Of 10466-10618 Range For Nifty



Last Trading Session: Indian Stock Market opened flat with positive bias. Equity Pandit predicted that market is still in positive zone until Nifty holds above 10446 and traders can hold long positions. Indian Stock Market moved sharply positive but saw profit booking at higher levels and finally managed to close flat for the day. BankNifty closed positive but right below EquityPandit’s predicted resistance levels of 25940.

Today: Indian Stock Market would open flat. Technically, analysis would still remain same and Indian Stock Market is still in positive zone. Market would enter into negative zone only if it closes below 10466 for Nifty and 25602 for BankNifty. Market would continue to consolidate until it closes out of 10466-10618 range. Traders can initiate fresh short position only if market closes below 10466 for Nifty and 25602 for BankNifty. Overall, market would be considered positive and traders can continue to hold long positions with strict stoploss below 10466 on closing basis. Whereas close above 10620 would induce further buying into the market and market would see sharp breakout in that case. BankNifty has formed DOJI kind of candlestick pattern in last trading session that suggest indecisiveness and also provide us with an initial signal that BankNifty would be bullish above 26050 whereas bearish momentum would be generated below 25800 levels. Traders can consider these levels for taking trading decisions.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs.277.38 crores whereas DIIs were net sellers of Rs.272.24 crores in cash market for last trading session. Nifty would see strong support at 10530-10500-10438-10400 whereas strong resistance would be seen 10632-10662-10705-10765 levels. Since, EquityPandit’s support and resistance levels always meet accuracy; hence traders are suggested to follow them for good profits.

Click Here to Check the Trend Of Major Indices and Stocks

Important Quarterly Results To Be Declared Today: SREI Infrastructure Finance Ltd.

Stocks In F&O Ban Period: ADANIPOWER and JETAIRWAYS.

NSE Nifty: (10576) The support for the Nifty is 10530-10500-10438-10400 and the resistance to the up move is at 10632-10662-10705-10765 levels.

NSE BankNifty: (25930) The support for BankNifty is 25800-25665-25580-25500 and the resistance to the up move is at 26070-26130-26270-26340-26438 levels.

BSE Sensex: (35142) The support for the Sensex is at 35070-35000-34970-34850 and the resistance to the up move is at 35380-35440-35585-35645 levels.

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Source: Equitypandit

Crude oil tumbles on surging supplies and darkening demand outlook



In November so far, WTI oil has slumped 18%. Surging supply and expectations of faltering demand have pressured crude prices. OPEC said recently in a monthly report that global oil demand in 2019 would rise by 1.29 million barrels a day, 70,000 b/d less than predicted last month and the fourth consecutive reduction in its forecast.

Worried by the drop in oil prices and rising supplies, OPEC is talking again of reducing production just months after having increased it. Such a shift would anger U.S. President Donald Trump, who urged OPEC not to cut production.

Oil’s slide that has taken it into a bear market has been exacerbated by a U.S. decision to grant some nations waivers from its sanctions, allowing them to continue buying some Iranian crude. Meanwhile, rising American output and inventories are pointing to an emerging glut and speculation is swirling over whether OPEC and its allies, including Russia, will act to stem the price slump.

The group reported the worsening outlook as traders assess mixed signals regarding its next step. Following a closely watched meeting of OPEC and its allies in Abu Dhabi over the weekend that yielded no formal change in production policy, a producer committee warned that they may need ?new strategies.?

Top group member Saudi Arabia said output needs to be curbed by about 1 million b/d from October levels. Still, OPEC secondary-source data suggest the kingdom fully abandoned cuts for the first time in October.

Meanwhile, another key producer, Russia, signalled it?s not ready to act immediately, with Energy Minister Alexander Novak highlighting the need to wait and see how the market develops.

Hence, prices have tanked in the last few days. The momentum from now on looks weak, but, as prices have contracted nearly 27% from recent highs, the possibility of a technical bounce-back is not ruled out. MCX crude oil is likely to bounce up in short term. Hence, we recommend remaining cautiously positive.

The author is Head - Commodity Research & Advisory, Anand Rathi Commodities.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on Moneycontrol are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Gold prices hold steady as dollar eases



Gold prices held steady on Thursday, after rising nearly a percent in the previous session, as the dollar retreated further from a 16-month peak against a basket of currencies.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was little changed at $1,210.65 per ounce at 0055 GMT.

US gold futures were flat 0.1 percent at $1,203 per ounce.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down about 0.1 percent, nudged down by firmer pound and euro.

British Prime Minister Theresa May won the backing of her senior ministers for a draft European Union divorce deal on Wednesday, freeing her to tackle the much more perilous struggle of getting parliament to approve the agreement.

Italy re-submitted its draft 2019 budget to the European Commission with the same growth and deficit assumptions as a draft rejected for breaking European Union rules, stepping up its showdown with the EU over its fiscal policy.

US consumer prices increased by the most in nine months in October amid gains in the cost of gasoline and rents, pointing to steadily rising inflation that likely will keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates again next month.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the introduction of press conferences after every Federal Reserve meeting next year means all meetings are now "live" for possible rate increases.

China has delivered a written response to US demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, three US government sources said on Wednesday, a move that could trigger negotiations to bring an end to a withering trade war between the world's top economies.

Paulson & Co, led by longtime gold bull John Paulson, kept its stake in gold investments during the third quarter of 2018 while other heavyweights including Soros Fund Management LLC, Jana Partners LLC and Caxton Corp remained unexposed to the metal.

Pan American Silver Corp said Wednesday it has agreed to buy Tahoe Resources Inc in a $1.07 billion cash and stock deal that would create a top global silver miner but also include some troublesome assets.

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Source: MoneyControl

Wednesday, 14 November 2018

Crude seen as wildcard as foreigners return to Indian bonds



Global funds are warming up to India’s sovereign bonds after shunning them for most of this year. Whether the interest will sustain depends on the price of oil, the nation’s top import.

Overseas holdings have risen 80.1 billion rupees ($1.1 billion) in the previous three weeks, data from the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. show. The inflows have coincided with a swift drop in crude costs and debt-buying support from the central bank, helping put the benchmark 10-year bonds on course for their first quarterly gain in more than a year.

“With the US mid-term elections over, oil prices weakening and the dollar not seeing egregious moves relative to other currencies, we see value in owning Indian sovereigns,” said Manu George, director of fixed income at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in Singapore.

Oil’s descent into a bear market has once again burnished the appeal of assets in nations running current-account deficits. Indonesian bonds, seen by some as a bellwether for sentiment toward developing markets, have set a blistering pace over the past month, gaining almost 8 per cent.

Indian sovereign bonds rallied on Wednesday as oil showed little sign of recovering from its unprecedented decline. The 10-year yield dropped five basis points to 7.71 per cent to head for its lowest close since Aug. 1. The rupee -- Asia’s worst-performing currency in 2018 -- surged to an almost two-month high as crude’s slump eased concern over India’s current-account deficit.

Earlier in the year, elevated energy prices, fears of fiscal slippage and the rupee’s plunge helped drive a yearlong rout in Indian bonds, with foreign holdings falling by as much as 330 billion rupees around mid-June from end-2017 levels.

“If oil continues to fall, we can expect it to be supportive of Indian government bonds as oil is arguably the major swing factor in terms of impact to economic growth and how it weighs on sentiment for India,” said Thomas Wu, head of Asia fixed income for discretionary portfolio management at Pictet Wealth Management in Hong Kong.

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Source: Economictimes

Gold edges up as dollar drifts away from multi-month high



Gold prices inched up on Wednesday as the US dollar retreated from a 16-month high touched earlier in week, easing amid a surge in the euro and sterling on a draft Brexit agreement.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was up about 0.1 per cent at $1,202.55 per ounce at 0101 GMT.

US gold futures were up 0.1 per cent at $1,203 per ounce.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down about 0.3 per cent. USD/

US President Donald Trump's top economic adviser said on Tuesday that the United States welcomed the resumption of talks with China on trade, while Vice President Mike Pence warned Beijing to change its behaviour so as to avoid a new cold war with the United States.

US inflation expectations were unchanged in October from a month ago, even while Americans expected to spend and earn more, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published on Tuesday.

Britain struck a draft divorce deal with the European Union after more than a year of talks, thrusting Prime Minister Theresa May into a perilous battle over Brexit that could shape her country's prosperity for generations to come.

The British cabinet will meet at 1400 GMT on Wednesday to consider the draft withdrawal agreement, a Downing Street spokesman said after Irish and British media were leaked details of the agreement on the text.

The Italian government will maintain its deficit and economic growth forecasts for 2019 despite European Commission demands for the budget plan to be revised, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said late on Tuesday.

SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.11 per cent to 761.16 tonnes on Tuesday from 762.00 tonnes on Monday.

Gold broker and storage company Gold Core said on Tuesday it had opened a gold vault in Dublin, aiming to attract investors looking for an alternative to London after Brexit.

We provide you sure shot Commodity Market Tips, Commodity Tips, Crude tips, Base metal tips, Mcx tips, Gold tips, Silver and copper tips with Technical & Fundamental Research.

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Source: Economictimes

Wednesday, 1 August 2018

औद्योगिक शेयरों के सहारे अमेरिकी बाजार ने की वापसी

मंगलवार को औद्योगिक शेयरों में मजबूती के सहारे अमेरिकी बाजार के तीनों प्रमुख सूचकांक बढ़ोतरी के साथ बंद हुए।

अमेरिका और चीन के बीच फिर से व्यापार बातचीत की खबरों से कल औद्गोयिक शेयरों को सहारा मिला। गौरतलब है कि जनवरी के बाद जुलाई में डॉव जोंस और एसऐंडपी ने (प्रतिशत) अपना सर्वश्रेष्ठ प्रदर्शन किया है। दूसरी ओर यूरोपीयन बाजारों में भी मजबूती दर्ज की गयी।

मंगलवार को डॉव जोंस इंडस्ट्रियल एवरेज (Dow Jones Industrial Average) 108.36 अंक या 0.43% की मजबूती के साथ 25,415.19 पर बंद हुआ। वहीं नैस्डैक कंपोजिट (Nasdaq Composite) 41.55 अंक या 0.55% की तेजी के साथ 7,671.79 पर बंद हुआ। साथ ही एसऐंडपी 500 (S&P 500) 13.69 अंक या 0.49% की वृद्धि के साथ 2,816.29 पर बंद हुआ। कल अमेरिकी बाजार में कच्चे तेल (Brent Crude) के दाम 0.97% की गिरावट के साथ 74.25 डॉलर प्रति पर बंद हुए।

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आरबीआई की मौद्रिक नीति बैठक से पहले बाजार में सकारात्मक शुरुआत

आज होने वाली आरबीआई की मौद्रिक नीति समिति की बैठक से पहले शेयर बाजार में मजबूत शुरुआत हुई है।

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आज सभी क्षेत्रों के शेयर सूचकांक हरे निशान में खुले हैं, जिनमें धातू, पीएसयू बैंक और ऊर्जा शेयरों में सर्वाधिक बढ़त है। इससे पहले अमेरिका और चीन के बीच व्यापार तनाव कम करने को लेकर बातचीत शुरू होने की खबरों से अमेरिकी और एशियाई बाजारों में मजबूती आयी है।

बीएसई सेंसेक्स (Sensex) 37,606.58 के पिछले बंद स्तर की तुलना में 37,643.87 पर खुल कर 9.20 बजे के करीब 74.09 अंक या 0.20% की मजबूती के साथ 37,680.68 पर है। वहीं एनएसई का निफ्टी (Nifty) 11,356.50 के पिछले बंद स्तर के मुकाबले 11,359.80 पर खुल कर 22.25 अंक या 0.20% की तेजी के साथ 11,378.25 पर चल रहा है।

वहीं प्रमुख सूचकांकों के विपरीत छोटे-मॅंझोले बाजारों में वृद्धि दिख रही है। बीएसई मिडकैप में 0.62% और बीएसई स्मॉलकैप में 0.54% की बढ़त है। जबकि निफ्टी मिड 100 में 0.52% और निफ्टी स्मॉल 100 में 0.55% की बढ़त है। इस समय निफ्टी के 50 में से 35 और सेंसेक्स के 31 शेयरों में से 24 शेयर मजबूत स्थिति में है।

शेयरों पर नजर (Stocks to Watch) : टाटा मोटर्स, वेदांत, अपोलो टायर्स, टाटा ग्लोबल और रिलायंस इंडस्ट्रीज

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खबरों के कारण जो शेयर आज नजर में रहेंगे उनमें टाटा मोटर्स, वेदांत, अपोलो टायर्स, टाटा ग्लोबल और रिलायंस इंडस्ट्रीज शामिल हैं।

तिमाही नतीजे आज - अपोलो टायर्स, इमामी, एक्साइड इंडस्ट्रीज, पिडिलाइट इंडस्ट्रीज, टाटा ग्लोबल बेवरेजेज, टोरेंट पावर, रिलायंस इन्फ्रा, आदित्य बिड़ला फैशन, ग्रेविटा इंडिया, वी2 रिटेल, एचईजी, एचएफसीएल और बल्लारपुर इंडस्ट्रीज

टाटा मोटर्स - कंपनी को अप्रैल-जून तिमाही में 1,863 करोड़ रुपये का घाटा हुआ।

वेदांत - कंपनी का तिमाही मुनाफा 0.7% की मामूली बढ़त के साथ 2,248 करोड़ रुपये रहा।

बीएएसएफ इंडिया - कंपनी ने 0.7 करोड़ रुपये के मुकाबले 2018 की अप्रैल-जून तिमाही में 24.4 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा कमाया।

पावर ग्रिड - पावर ग्रिड ने 2,052.4 करोड़ रुपये के मुकाबले 2,240.5 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा कमाया।

रिलायंस इंडस्ट्रीज - कंपनी ने सरकार के खिलाफ गैस विवाद मामले में मध्यस्थ निर्णय जीत लिया।

महानगर गैस - कंपनी ने 124.3 करोड़ रुपये के मुकाबले 3.2% की वृद्धि के साथ 128 करोड़ रुपये का मुनाफा कमाया।

कैस्ट्रॉल इंडिया - कैस्ट्रॉल इंडिया का मुनाफा 137.9 करोड़ रुपये से 19% बढ़ कर 164.2 करोड़ रुपये रहा।

जिंदल स्टील - भारतीय रेलवे रेलों के लिए पहली बार वैश्विक निविदा में कंपनी को 1 लाख टन का ठेका मिला।

हिंदुस्तान पेट्रोलियम - कंपनी की ईरान से अगस्त में तेल आयात की योजना नहीं है।

Monday, 21 May 2018

4.90% की बढ़त के साथ सूचीबद्ध हुआ इंडोस्टार कैपिटल फाइनेंस (Indostar Capital Finance)

गैर-बैंकिंग वित्तीय कंपनी इंडोस्टार कैपिटल फाइनेंस (Indostar Capital Finance) के शेयर ने आईपीओ (IPO) इश्यू भाव के मुकाबले बीएसई पर 4.90% की बढ़त के साथ शुरुआत की है।

कंपनी का शेयर 572 रुपये के ऊपरी इश्यू भाव के मुकाबले 600 रुपये पर सूचीबद्ध हुआ है।

गौरतलब है कि 09 से 11 मई तक खुले आईपीओ के जरिये कंपनी ने 1,800-2,000 करोड़ रुपये जुटाने का लक्ष्य रखा था। कंपनी के आईपीओ (IPO) इश्यू को 6.74 गुना आवेदन प्राप्त हुए थे। इश्यू से पहले कंपनी ने एंकर निवेशकों से 553 करोड़ रुपये प्राप्त किये थे। आईपीओ इश्यू में 700 करोड़ रुपये के नये शेयर जारी किये गये, जिसमें 10 रुपये प्रति वाले इक्विटी शेयरों के लिए 570-572 रुपये का प्राइस बैंड तय था।

आईपीओ के माध्यम से प्राप्त पूँजी का इस्तेमाल इंडोस्टार कैपिटल फाइनेंस भविष्य की पूँजीगत जरूरतों को पूरा करने के लिए करेगी। इसके इश्यू में जेएम फाइनेंशियल, कोटक महिंद्रा कैपिटल, मॉर्गन स्टेनली इंडिया, मोतीलाल ओसवाल इन्वेस्टमेंट एडवाइजर्स और नोमुरा फाइनेंशियल एडवाइजरी इश्यू की प्रबंधक रहीं। (शेयर मंथन, 21 मई 2018)

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