Showing posts with label mcx market tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mcx market tips. Show all posts

Friday, 28 December 2018

Oil prices slide as concerns about global economy, oversupply weigh


Oil prices fell on Thursday, retreating from an 8 percent rally in the previous session as the oil market focused on signs of faltering global economic growth and record production of crude.

Brent crude futures dropped 4.24 percent, or $2.31, to settle at $52.16 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.61 to settle at $44.61 a barrel, down 3.48 percent.

"The market is giving back some of its gains from yesterday that were brought along with the euphoria in the stock market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston.

Prices surged on Wednesday, tracking a spike on Wall Street after President Donald Trump's administration attempted to shore up investor confidence.

U.S. stocks retreated for most of the session on Thursday, dragging oil prices, before roaring back to end in positive territory.

Brent and WTI have lost more than a third of their value since the beginning of October and are heading for declines of more than 20 percent in 2018.

Concerns about slowing global economic growth have dampened investor demand for riskier asset classes and pressured crude futures.

Market participants are also worried about a glut of crude.

U.S. crude stocks rose by 6.9 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 21 to 448.2 million, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Thursday. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.9 million barrels.

Official U.S. government data will be released on Friday.

Three months ago it looked as if the global oil market would be undersupplied through the northern hemisphere winter as U.S. sanctions removed large volumes of Iranian crude. But other oil exporters have compensated for any shortfall, depressing prices.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other producers, agreed this month to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to more than 1 percent of global consumption.

But the cuts will not take effect until January and oil production has been at or near record highs in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, now the world's top crude producer pumping 11.6 million bpd.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the country will cut its output by between 3 million and 5 million tonnes in the first half of 2019. It then will be able to restore it to 556 million tonnes (11.12 million barrels per day) for the whole 2019, on par with 2018, he added.

Although U.S. sanctions have put a cap on Iran's oil sales, Tehran has said its private exporters have "no problems" selling its oil.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Wednesday, 26 December 2018

Gold holds near six-month peak on weak risk appetite



Gold prices inched lower on Wednesday as the dollar firmed but hovered near a six-month high, supported by political instability in the United States and concerns about a global economic slowdown.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,265.46 per ounce as of 0052 GMT. The metal touched $1,270.50 in early trade, its highest level since June 25.

* US gold futures were down 0.3 percent at $1,268.10 per ounce.

* The dollar index , a gauge of its value versus six major peers, was steady at 96.583 in early Asian trade.

* U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the partial shutdown of the federal government was going to last until his demand for funds to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is met.

* Trump expressed confidence on Tuesday in Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin amid worries over a weakening economy and a stock market slump, but repeated his criticism of the U.S. Federal Reserve, saying it has raised interest rates too quickly.

* A U.S. court on Monday ordered North Korea to pay $501 million in damages for the torture and death of U.S. college student, a ruling that comes at a sensitive time in U.S.-North Korea diplomatic relations.

* Asian stocks were shaky early on Wednesday after a widespread tumble gripped global markets earlier in the week, with concerns over the state of U.S. politics prompting investors to turn away from risk assets.

* China plans to remove import and export tariffs in 2019 on a range of goods, including import taxes on alternative meals used in animal feed, to secure supplies of raw materials amid trade tensions with the United States and boosting outbound cargoes.

* China's soybean imports from the United States plunged to zero in November, marking the first time since the trade war between the world's two largest economies started that China, the world's largest soybean buyer, has imported no U.S. supplies.

* Russia's VTB Capital, one of the country's biggest gold traders, reduced gold exports in 2018 due to higher demand from Russia's central bank and lower demand in China, its commodities head said.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Friday, 21 December 2018

Decline in crude price could extend towards $44-42/$: Motilal Oswal


Crude oil was on an upward trend since the start of 2018 and was up about 30 percent from January to October, hitting a four-year high of $86/bbl on increasing fear of market tightness. But the last couple of months turned the tide for crude as prices came down crashing; touching lows of $58 for the Brent, after the US announced change of plans over Iran sanctions.

Prices witnessed a huge correction and continued to fall backed by sharp sell-offs in global equity markets, growing concerns regarding China-US trade tensions and a weaker emerging economies outlook raised worries on global economic and oil demand growth outlook. Huge build up in US crude inventories which have been rising for six consecutive weeks added more pressure.

Bears took control of the market on forecasts of non-OPEC supply growth for 2019 outpacing the expansion in world oil demand, leading to widening excess supply in the market. The main theme was global slowdown due to higher prices which could lead to recessionary situation.

OECD’s interim outlook revised down the outlook for global economic growth from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent for both 2018 and 2019. The GDP growth in China is expected to remain at 6.5 percent in 2019, as the impact of trade tensions have, so far, been modest.

Meanwhile, IMF was slightly more pessimistic, taking its forecast for China’s growth down to 6.2 percent. Both organisations noted that global trade growth has slowed and that several developing countries have been severely impacted by a decline in the value of their currency.

Some support came in after OPEC clinched a deal with allied oil-producing nations including Russia at its headquarters in Vienna, and agreed to take 1.2 million barrels per day off the market for first six months of 2019. The 15-member OPEC cartel has agreed to reduce its output by 800,000 bpd, while Russia and the allied producers will contribute a 400,000 bpd reduction.

The deal is in line with expectations for the allies to throttle back output by 1 million to 1.4 million bpd. Russia will reduce production by 2 percent from October's output of 11.4 million bpd, equaling about 2,28,000-2,30,000 bpd. OPEC even agreed to exempt Iran, along with Venezuela and Libya. Nigeria, which was exempt under the previous deal, will participate in this round of cuts.

The economic situation of an increase in US interest rates and increasing risk aversion contributed to significant currency depreciation in many emerging markets. Emerging countries that henceforth resisted the re-introduction of subsidies or price controls are now intervening to relieve pressure on consumers. In India, for example, excise taxes were reduced recently to help households cope with rising prices.

The oil market in December has turned from being an oversupply market to being a balanced one after OPEC decision to cut output by 1.2 million barrels. Yet, the markets seem to be bit nervous as the demand for oil still remains lower. The output cut harbors opportunities - but also risks. This is because we might see a price divergence between the price of Brent and WTI and with it a widening of the spread between the two in the course of Q1 2019.

The 1.2mmb/d fails to convince the market that the oversupply is under control. The most important factor will be the compliance for all countries and how Iranian sanction waivers pan out in the next 6 months. For US producers, it provides a lot of clarity for US independent upstream producers going into budgeting season for 2019. The announcement provides a baseline of support of oil between $50 and $55. That's a decent level for US independents.

Inventory levels at Cushing area in the US could rise due to pipeline constraints which prevent oil supply being produced from reaching the main market. Should this happen, the price of WTI is set to underperform Brent. However, eventually this could be reversed if new pipelines resolve the congestion in the Cushing and Permian Basin areas towards Q4 2019.

Brent's calender spread flipped into contango after trading into backwardation for months due to a deep price correction and oil price sell-off, which was concentrated in the front months, in addition to signs of higher oil supply from major oil producers and concerns about oil demand growth. The spread between the Brent and WTI benchmarks widened Q3, to $10.16 a barrel on a continuing increase in US crude oil inventories and supported higher levels of US crude exports.

Higher US crude oil production and refinery maintenance season in the US added pressure to WTI prices. On the other hand, Brent prices were supported by concerns over potential global oil supply shortages and rising geopolitical tensions.

To sum it up, the process of rebalancing has started following the OPEC cuts and we believe that rebalancing is now well and truly underway. WTI Crude oil price saw the sharpest quarterly fall since 2014 during the quarter wherein it declined more than 33 percent in the period.

The medium-term bias still continues to remain negative as long as below $54-55 range and the current decline could extend towards $44-42 levels. Amidst all the uncertainties surrounding the crude oil market, a decisive move above/below the $55-42 range could lead to extended price action in that direction.

Our expectations are largely on back of consistently lower OPEC supplies during past few months while demand continues to remain weak.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Today Silver Analysis Update Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx silver short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.


SELL Signal: When all the mcx silver short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in silver. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in silver is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Market Live: Sensex opens mildly lower, Nifty holds 10,900; Infosys down 1%


NDTV hits upper circuit Shares of NDTV are locked in 10 percent upper circuit after it signed a deal with Taboola, a content discovery platform. 

The five-year deal ties NDTV Convergence exclusively to Taboola and involves a minimum guarantee of more than Rs 300 crore for NDTV Convergence. 

Shares of PVR are higher by a percent after it announced the opening of a new multiplex at Ansal Plaza in Greater Noida, UP.

IT stocks fall Frontline IT names such as Infosys and TCS, among others are trading lower. Take a look at their intraday chart. 



Market opens It’s a mildly lower start to the market on Friday morning, amid weak global cues. The Nifty is holding 10,900-mark. 

Among sectors, Nifty IT index is down around half a percent, while energy and pharma are in the negative zone. Automobile names are trading in the green. 

The Nifty Midcap index is up one quarter of a percent.

The Sensex is down 31.04 points or 0.09% at 36400.63, while the Nifty was down 16.20 points or 0.15% at 10935.50. The market breadth is positive as 295 shares advanced, against a decline of 107 shares, while 21 shares were unchanged.

Bharti Airtel, Yes Bank, HPCL and Indiabulls Housing are the top gainers, while Infosys, Power Grid and IOC have lost the most.


Rupee opens The Indian rupee opened at 69.72 per dollar on Friday versus previous close 69.70.


Market at pre-open Equity benchmarks are trading higher in pre-opening trade, with the Nifty well above 10,950-mark. 

The Sensex is up 111.89 points or 0.31% at 36543.56, while the Nifty is higher by 10.10 points or 0.09% at 10961.80.

The rupee has opened flat at 69.72 per US dollar against its previous close of 69.70 per US dollar.

Wall Street ends lower: US stocks slid on Thursday, with the Nasdaq on the cusp of confirming bear market territory, as the Federal Reserve's plan to continue its balance sheet reduction and the threat of a partial government shutdown fuelled investor anxieties.

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Thursday, 20 December 2018

Today Lead Updates Trading Rules


Buy Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crosses the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from below, signals for a uptrend.

SELL Signal: When all the mcx lead short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross the long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) from above, signals for a downtrend.

Trend Strength: Another application of Guppy multiple moving average system is to analyze the strength of the current trend in lead. If the EMA lines of short term and long term moving averages are wide separated by a uniform distance then the trend in lead is seen as stable. If there's no wide separation, then the prevailing trend is weak and vulnerable.


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Expect US Fed to hike rates by 50 bps over 2019: ICICI Research


Markets viewed the Fed's underlying tone as dovish, but US and global stocks were hit because investors expected a more dovish tone.

The US Fed on December 19 hiked interest rates for the fourth time this year by 25 basis points, projecting only two more rate hikes next year.

"Although the Federal Reserve delivered a dovish rate hike as was being priced in by the markets, the tone particularly in the press conference stoked concerns about medium-term growth prospects both in the US economy and in the global economy," ICICI Research noted.

ICICI Research said it expects the US Federal Reserve to hike rates by 50 bps over 2019, saying the Fed could deliver a series of two dovish rate hikes next year.

"Given that labour markets are still robust and GDP growth is forecast to be above trend level in 2019 at aggregate, we continue to expect 50 bps worth of rate hikes over 2019 with the Fed likely to end its rate hiking cycle," ICICI Research said in its note.

The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, also indicated that future action on rates would be data dependent, saying that it will gradually withdraw support from a strong economy.

But the Fed also said it will "continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."

The Fed did not offer much clarity on the neutral rate of 2.8 percent, which is the rate at which GDP grows if inflation is stable.

After the announcement by the Fed, the dollar recovered against major currencies, with the DXY ending the day slightly higher.


ICICI Research said it is still bearish on the US dollar, but does not rule out potential upside.

"While we would not rule out further possible upside, we reiterate our bearish USD call over the medium-term given that we expect the growth divergence between the US and non-US world to shrink," ICICI Research said.

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Source: Moneycontrol


Saudi Arabia's finance minister said on Wednesday he was unconcerned with current oil prices impacting spending plans in 2019, and the government still aims to close its budget deficit by 2023 though the target is not set in stone.

Mohammed al-Jadaan told Reuters cash settlements from an anti-corruption campaign, which generated 50 billion Saudi riyals ($13.3 billion) in 2018, would net "not significantly less" in 2019.

The authorities have said they expect to confiscate more than $100 billion overall from a purge of princes, ministers and business tycoons ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November 2017.

"We have a figure for the budget, but I can't tell you what it is. It's what we received from the attorney general as most likely to be coming our way," Jadaan said in an interview at Riyadh's Ritz-Carlton Hotel, where suspects in the corruption sweep were held for up to three months.

For three years - ever since Riyadh ran an eye-popping deficit of 367 billion riyals ($98 billion) in 2015, threatening its financial stability - fiscal policy focused to a large extent on reassuring markets by cutting the deficit.

Under an ambitious reform plan aimed at ending dependence on crude, the world's top oil exporter is seeking a balanced budget by 2023.

The government unveiled a 1.11 trillion Saudi riyal ($295 billion) budget on Tuesday, the kingdom's largest, with a seven percent increase in state spending to spur economic growth and a projected deficit of 4.2 percent of GDP.

"We are still targeting 2023, but what I'm saying is we need to realize that it is not set in stone," Jadaan said. "What's the point of having a balanced budget on 23 specifically? It could be 22, it could be 24. We want to be disciplined, we want to be efficient and pro-growth."

He said the ministry plans to borrow more locally than internationally, and would issue bonds mainly in US dollars but is considering venturing into other currencies including euro and yen.

Asked about the impact of lower oil prices on spending, Jadaan said: "Until today we are comfortable" and "even in the worst case scenario we are still relatively comfortable" given the kingdom's significant reserves and low debt to GDP ratio.

Saudi Arabia does not disclose the oil price assumptions on which its planning is based, but economists have estimated the 2019 budget implied Brent at $70-71 per barrel with oil production at 10.2 million barrels per day.

Oil stabilised on Wednesday after one of its biggest falls in years, but remained under pressure from oversupply and concern a slowing global economy would depress demand.

CORRUPTION SETTLEMENTS

Jadaan said seized assets were being managed and valued by a ministry-owned company, Istidama, run by a committee chaired by the commerce minister and with no connection to the sovereign wealth body, the Public Investment Fund.

"Some of them are liquid assets, so they liquidate them when the market is right. Some of them are more sticky assets in real estate and other private investments that they will then consider what are they going to do with," he said.

Construction giant Saudi Binladin Group (SBG), in which the government took a roughly one-third stake under the campaign, will soon have a "normal board" with family members and representatives of government ownership, according to Jadaan.

A five-member committee charged with restructuring the company's governance "is about now to conclude," most likely in 2019, he said. "It's a transition. That committee is just a temporary supervisory committee until the governance is sorted out."

Asked about the possibility of listing SBG on the stock market, he said: "A company with this kind of business you can't list for some time. It will need some time to go through restructuring, make it more business ready."

Reuters reported in September that the family-run company had ended up on a collision course with the government after chairman Bakr Binladin and his shareholder brothers resisted earlier pressure to list.

Other businessmen rounded up in the corruption sweep have ceded shares in publicly-listed companies among other settlements.

Among those detained was billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who said in March he had reached an agreement with the government for his release, without disclosing details of the "confirmed understanding".

Asked about the government's seizure of shares in publicly-traded companies under corruption settlements, Jadaan said: "If it is not on Tadawul (stock exchange), we don't own it."

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Source: Moneycontrol

US to lift sanctions from aluminium giant Rusal


The US Treasury will lift sanctions on the core empire of Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, including aluminium giant Rusal and its parent En+, watering down the toughest penalties imposed since Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea.

In April, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Deripaska, Rusal, En+ and other companies in which he owns stakes, citing "malign activities" by Russia, prompting turmoil in global aluminium markets.

After lobbying by European governments, Washington postponed enforcement of the sanctions and started talks with Deripaska's team on removing Rusal and En+ from the blacklist if he ceded control of Rusal.

Deripaska will remain under sanctions, the Treasury said. However, the three Deripaska companies - Rusal, En+ and power firm EuroSibEnergo - have agreed to restructure to reduce Deripaska's stakes.

Rusal shares soared as much as 26.8 percent on Thursday to their highest since April, the month when the sanctions were announced.

"These companies have committed to significantly diminish Deripaska's ownership and sever his control," the Treasury said in a statement on Wednesday, adding that the sanctions would be lifted in one month.

The Irish government, which lobbied heavily in Washington for the removal of sanctions to protect 600 jobs at an alumina plant, said the move was "a very welcome return" on those efforts.

The Aughinish Alumina plant will be free from the threat of sanctions following a 30-day Congressional review period, the Irish foreign ministry said in a statement. The facility churns out a third of Europe's alumina, a material used to make aluminium.

Prices for aluminium fell to $1,911 a tonne after the Treasury statement, their lowest since August last year.

Rusal, the world's second largest aluminium producer after China's Hongqiao, was not immediately available for comment.

The London Metal Exchange said that it would lift its suspension on aluminium produced by Rusal if the US sanctions were removed.

The deal, agreed with the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in the United States, will prevent Deripaska obtaining cash or receiving future dividends from the companies.

His stake in En+ will fall from 70 percent to 44.95 percent. The deal also includes Swiss company Glencore, or its subsidiary, swapping shares in Rusal for a direct ownership interest in En+.

Glencore declined to comment.

VTB Bank, Russia's second-largest lender, or another assignee approved by OFAC, will take ownership of a block of Deripaska's shares in En+ pledged as collateral for outstanding obligations.

Deripaska will also donate a block of shares to a charitable foundation and assign any voting rights above 35 percent of En+ shares to a voting trust. Several shareholders with professional or family ties to him will also assign their voting rights to an independent third party.

As part of the agreement, half of En+'s restructured board of directors will be US or UK nationals and Rusal's current board chairman will step down. En+ will create a board of 12 directors, with eight directors independent of Deripaska, in 30 days.

After the restructuring En+ will no longer be subject to sanctions and will own a 56.88 percent stake in Rusal, retaining its right to nominate Rusal's chief executive.

Deripaska will retain a direct shareholding interest in Rusal of just 0.01 percent.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Oil prices resume drop, shed most of last session's gains


Oil prices fell on Thursday to erase most of their gains from the day before, resuming declines seen earlier in the week amid worries about oversupply and the outlook for the global economy.

The front-month US crude contract had dropped more than $1, or 2.24 percent, to $47.10 per barrel by 0423 GMT, offseting gains of 96 cents chalked up on Wednesday.

International benchmark Brent crude futures were down over $1, or 1.82 percent, at $56.20 per barrel, after climbing almost 2 percent the session before.

"Wednesday's recovery was short-covering. Investors quickly moved their attention to deteriorating fundamentals in the oil markets including more signs of slowing economic growth next year, record production and the lack of confidence with OPEC's pledge to curb production," said Xi Jiarui, chief oil analyst at consultancy JLC.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers including Russia agreed this month to curb output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in an attempt to drain tanks and boost prices.

Oil prices are down more than 30 percent from peaks seen in October.

But the cuts will not happen until next month and production has been at or near record highs in the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said he expected global oil stocks to fall by the end of the first quarter, but added that the market remained vulnerable to political and economic factors as well as speculation.

Technical analysis showed US oil may retest support at $45.94 per barrel, a break below which could cause a loss to $44.43, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao wrote on Thursday.

SQUARING UP

Volatility in crude prices this week has driven investors to shut their positions and is draining liquidity from the market, Xi said.

Total market open interest in US crude contracts had fallen to 2.063 million contracts as of Thursday, up from a record of 2.71 million in May.

"It has been a tumultuous week in oil markets and traders may opt to shut it down after the last big risk event of the year with year-end position-squaring likely to kick-in today," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.

Innes was referring to the US Federal Reserve's last policy meeting of 2018, at which it suggested the US economy no longer needed the central bank's support either through lower-than-normal interest rates or by maintaining a massive balance sheet.

But US inventory data offered some support to WTI prices.

US crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, smaller than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.2 million barrels, versus expectations of a 573,000-barrel increase, the EIA said.

Distillate demand rose to the highest since January 2003, which bolstered buying, particularly in heating oil futures, the market's proxy for diesel.

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Source: Moneycontrol

Top buy & sell ideas by Ashwani Gujral, Sudarshan Sukhani, Mitessh Thakkar for short term


Benchmark indices closed higher for the seventh consecutive session on December 19, driven by lower oil prices and bond yields. A likely dovish stance by the Federal Reserve in its policy meeting decision due tonight and continued liquidity infusion by RBI via open market operations (OMOs) also boosted market sentiment.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 137.25 points to 36,484.33 and the 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 58.60 points to 10,967.30.

The Nifty index formed bullish candle on the daily charts. The momentum is so strong that it could touch psychological 11,000 level in the coming session, experts said.

According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,935.13, followed by 10,902.97. If the index starts moving upward, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,992.33 and then 11,017.37.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 27,298.40, up 123.70 points on December 19. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 27,220.37, followed by 27,142.33. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 27,370.37, followed by 27,442.33.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, top market experts recommend which stocks to bet on for good returns:

Ashwani Gujral of ashwanigujral.com

Buy V Guard Industries with a stop loss of Rs 220, target of Rs 234

Buy Dabur India with a stop loss of Rs 452, target of Rs 468

Buy Bank of India with a stop loss of Rs 94, target of Rs 106

Buy Exide Industries with a stop loss of Rs 264, target of Rs 280

Buy KPIT Technologies with a stop loss of Rs 224, target of Rs 238

Sudarshan Sukhani of s2analytics.com

Buy UPL with stop loss at Rs 745 and target of Rs 770

Buy Hero MotoCorp with stop loss at Rs 3250 and target of Rs 3380

Sell  Bharat Forge with stop loss at Rs 530 and target of Rs 510

Sell Reliance Capital with stop loss at Rs 224 and target of Rs 208

Sell Dewan Housing Finance with stop loss at Rs 230 and target of Rs 215

Mitessh Thakkar of mitesshthakkar.com

Buy Axis Bank with a stop loss below Rs 630 for target of Rs 665

Buy Exide Industries around Rs 267 - 266 with stop loss of Rs 262 and target of Rs 279

Sell HCL Tech with a stop loss of Rs 970 and target of Rs 932

Buy Torrent Power above Rs 273 with stop loss of Rs 267 and target of Rs 288

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Source: Moneycontrol

Ten BSE 500 stocks rise 45-100% since October. Do you own any?


After the September crash, it looked like the market would end the year either flat or negative, but the recovery since October lows indicated that benchmark indices are heading towards positive close for the year 2018.

The 30-share BSE Sensex and the 50-share NSE Nifty climbed 9 percent each from October lows while the year-to-date gains stood at 6.7 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.

The sharp rally after September crash was attributed to steep fall in oil prices resulting in rupee appreciation, liquidity availability in debt market from RBI after IL&FS-led credit crisis in NBFCs, and easing trade tensions between US and China.

"Oil prices slid further and a drop in bond yield raised investor confidence. Strong rupee and fall in yield eased the liquidity concerns of the market," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services told Moneycontrol.

But the global markets have been concerned about global growth after China's weak economic data last week and lowering of growth target by Japan for 2018 and 2019, which all put pressure on crude oil prices.

"With lack of any fresh positive domestic triggers and uncertain global cues, some consolidation in the Indian market cannot be ruled out at higher levels," Jayant Manglik, President at Religare Broking said.

He further said any correction at this juncture in fundamentally sound companies should be considered as a healthy buying opportunity for investors. "Market participants would keep close watch on the movement of crude oil prices, currency and global developments."

Further, GST meet outcome and the US Fed meet scheduled this week could induce volatility across the indices, he feels. Hence, he advised traders to avoid risky leveraged positions.

In the rally since October 26, the broader markets also participated with the BSE Midcap index rising over 10 percent and Smallcap gaining more than 7 percent.

Among sectoral indices, auto (up 9.7 percent), bankex (11.87 percent), capital goods (13.80 percent), FMCG (8.6 percent), IT (7 percent) and realty (15 percent) gained the most while metal was the worst performer, down 4 percent.

Around 75 percent of BSE 500 stocks reported positive returns, out of which top 75 stocks climbed more than 20 percent and top 10 stocks rallied 45-100 percent.

The list stocks includes 8K Miles Software, PC Jeweller, Linde India, Infibeam Avenues, BEML, Sequent Scientific and Reliance Communications which shot up more than 57 percent.

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Source: Moneycontrol